February 13, 2019
Summary: Bakersfield at this hour is reporting a temperature of 63 degrees, which is 29 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The remainder of the valley is 6 to 19 degrees warmer. Obviously, we’ve had an air mass change as that AR has arrived. However, for most of the day, the juiciest flow will be from a Monterey/Stockton line northward. Widespread yellows and reds show up on Doppler radar, indicating very heavy rain in the central and northern Sierra Nevada and the Sacramento Valley. As expected, a strong rain shadow has developed along the west side of the valley. It’s absolutely quite amazing as one model predicts less than .25 over the west side and more than an inch over the east side, especially close to the Sierra Nevada foothills.
The dynamics with this weather pattern are incredible with an arctic low extending from British Columbia to more than 2,000 miles southwest over the ocean. This air mass is intermingling with the atmospheric river of air, better known to us old timers as the pineapple connection. This conflict zone will settle further south into central California tonight and Thursday. Models are painting practically the perfect storm over the Sierra Nevada as winds aloft as low as 4,000 feet are lifted. As the flow comes over the mountains in a perpendicular fashion, Yosemite Valley and Lodgepole are expected to receive between 6 and 8 inches with greater amounts possible up higher. More than ten feet of snow could fall above 8,500 feet with snow levels rising to above 8,000 feet. With rain such heavy rainfall, you can only imagine the effects on mountainous rivers and streams. The pineapple connection will sag into southern California later Thursday afternoon into Friday where some of the mountain areas there are anticipating 6 to 8 inches of rain.
By Friday, the precipitation will turn more showery as a very cold low drops into northern and central California with rapidly lowering snow levels possibly down to 2,000 feet. Another modified arctic low will sweep southward into the area Saturday and Saturday night with another possible impulse later Sunday into Monday. The bottom line is, showers will be possible at any time from Friday through the first half of the day Monday with very low snow levels.
The trough will finally slide east of the Sierra Nevada Monday night with a large high just off the west coast, jutting northward into Alaska. The squeeze play between the off shore high and that cold trough just to our east will result in a north/south flow with the air mass originating in southwest Canada and sliding right into our region. Below freezing temperatures will again be possible Tuesday morning and continuing through at least Thursday. We’re too far out currently to surmise low temperatures, but upper 20s to lower 30s may be possible. We will monitor this very closely.
That high off shore will shield us from storms for a while as models for midweek through next weekend look dry with below average temperatures.
Forecast: Periods of rain today with strong, gusty southeast winds at times. Rain, heavy at times, tonight and Thursday. Showers Thursday night. showers likely at times Friday through Monday morning with a chance of showers Monday afternoon. Partly cloudy Monday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/55/63/44/56 | Reedley 61/56/63/45/57 | Dinuba 61/54/62/44/55 | |
| Porterville 63/56/64/44/57 | Lindsay 63/54/62/43/56 | Delano 64/56/62/45/57 | |
| Bakersfield 67/58/65/46/58 | Taft 66/60/65/48/57 | Arvin 66/57/65/56/57 | |
| Lamont 67/59/65/46/56 | Pixley 64/56/64/45/58 | Tulare 62/55/62/43/55 | |
| Woodlake 62/55/62/44/55 | Hanford 62/56/62/44/55 | Orosi 61/53/62/43/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Showers likely 41/58 |
Sunday
Showers likely 38/54 |
Monday
Am showers 37/53 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 32/56 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 31/59 |
Two Week Outlook: February 19 through February 25: It’s been a while but this model is now indicating a high chance of dry weather during this time frame. This model does show a consistent northwest flow aloft which would mean a continuation of below average temperatures.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: The potential for very strong winds will increase as a developing surface low takes shape off the northern California coast. That, combined with jet stream energy above the valley floor will generate winds along the west side into the 15 to 35 MPH range with stronger gusts. Along the east side, north of Kern County, winds will be generally out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Gusts to 40 MPH are possible this afternoon from Fresno County north, through Thursday morning. As of 7:00am, Bakersfield was reporting gusts to 38 MPH with very strong wind potential over the valley portion of Kern County, especially near the mountains. One model was projecting gusts at Taft to 58 MPH this afternoon. Gusts in the 60 plus MPH range will certainly be possible near the base of the Kern County mountains, especially from this afternoon through about midday Thursday. Winds later Thursday afternoon will switch and become out of the west of northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Friday and Saturday will periodically be out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Rainfall amounts from now through Thursday night will vary widely. Strong rain shadows are already setting up along the lee side of the Coast Range, or the west side, and in Kern County. In fact, one high resolution model is indicating that portions of the I-5 corridor could pick up no more than .25. the east side, on the other hand, could measure more than an inch. The valley portion of Kern County typically deals with rain shadows and this event will be no exception. The atmospheric river of air currently pounding northern California will sag southward into central California later this afternoon through Thursday morning. That is when the real fun will begin with this storm.
By later Thursday afternoon, the precipitation pattern will begin to turn more showery as the AR begins to drift down into southern California. From Thursday night through at least Monday morning, there will be the likelihood of showers at any given time. Rainfall amounts after Thursday night will be much lighter as very cold air lower snow levels down to possibly 2,000 feet in the surrounding mountains. It appears dry weather will finally begin by Monday evening and if models are correct, dry weather will hold for the remainder of next week and possibly into the following week.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue through at least Monday morning. Temperatures tonight will only be in the mid 50s to possibly even near 60 in Kern County. Several very cold impulses will move north to south into California Friday through early Monday. The air associated with these systems has its origins in Alaska and northwest Canada. If skies clear Tuesday morning, frost will be likely with the possibility of below freezing temperatures Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The flow aloft behind that last system early next week is projected on most models to be straight out of the north, wrapping around a modified arctic trough in the Great Basin. I wouldn’t rule out lows similar to what we had night before last, although that’s not in concrete yet. However, I do believe the potential is there.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 85%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 70%/90%
Actual Humidity February 12, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/44%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .43, Parlier .47, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .42, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .43, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 48, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 61/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1493 -447
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 46.8 -1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 6.65 season. or +.12. Month to Date: 2.09 +1.22
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.19, or -.46. Month to Date: .51 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 728, Parlier, 715 , Arvin, 649 Shafter, 706 Stratford, 718, Delano NA, Lindcove, 1019, Porterville, 1447
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 5:38 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 56 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 51 / 28 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 44 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 29 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 28 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 47 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 10.25 119 3.99 46 8.60 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.30 107 3.55 46 7.74 13.11
MERCED 0.00 8.14 115 2.29 32 7.05 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.30 90 1.55 22 6.97 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.65 102 1.64 25 6.53 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.27 90 1.78 31 5.83 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.19 87 1.10 30 3.65 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 4.31 143 0.20 7 3.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.34 123 2.51 33 7.58 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 10.11 135 2.30 31 7.47 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 9.63 120 2.02 25 8.04 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/February 13