February 16, 2019
Summary: The latest burst of showers is moving down the valley at this hour. As of the time of this writing, a batch of showers was just moving into Tulare County and will continue to track down the east side of the valley over the next couple of hours. A broad trough of very cold low pressure is currently over the western one-fourth of the U.S. with modified arctic systems racing from north to south from western Canada into California. The latest impulse is now entering northern California where snow levels may actually reach sea level tonight through Sunday evening. Once the daytime heating process gets underway, more showers will form during the afternoon hours with a chance of isolated thunderstorms again this afternoon and once again Sunday afternoon. Like yesterday, some locations could get nailed with brief localized heavy rain and small hail. This is the type of pattern where even an isolated cold weather funnel cloud could be sighted.
Currently, the snow level along the Sierra Nevada is roughly 2,000 feet. The latest observation at Mariposa at roughly 2,000 feet was snow with a temperature of 34.
The low coming through Sunday and Sunday evening is even colder as snow could fall as low as 1,000 feet, especially Sunday evening. I wouldn’t be totally shocked to hear of a snowflake or two reaching the valley floor. Once this system moves eastward Sunday night, we will enjoy about 54 hours of dry, cold weather. Below freezing temperatures are my main concern, especially for Tuesday and even possibly Wednesday. More in the frost discussion below.
If models are correct, the next arctic system to dive southward from western Canada will be colder than this current series, which is hard to believe, however that is what current model output is suggesting. Snow on the valley floor is, of course, very rare, but there would seem to be a chance late Wednesday night and for a time Thursday morning. Over the weekend, the flow will finally become more northwesterly for at least some modification of the air mass. A couple of models are now suggesting a ridge of high pressure will finally build in from the west beginning Monday with a westerly flow by midweek. This would result in dry weather with a warming trend and more typical mid-February weather.
Forecast: Periods of showers through Sunday evening with snow in the surrounding foothills. A chance of showers later Sunday night. partly cloudy Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday leading to a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Showers becoming likely Wednesday night and Thursday with snow possibly as low as 500 feet. A chance of showers early Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/38/48/32/49 | Reedley 51/37/49/32/49 | Dinuba 50/37/49/30/48 | |
| Porterville 51/37/49/31/50 | Lindsay 52/36/49/30/50 | Delano 52/39/49/31/49 | |
| Bakersfield 52/40/49/36/48 | Taft 50/38/49/35/48 | Arvin 51/40/49/33/49 | |
| Lamont 52/39/49/34/49 | Pixley 51/38/48/32/50 | Tulare 50/37/48/30/49 | |
| Woodlake 51/37/48/31/49 | Hanford 51/38/49/31/49 | Orosi 51/37/48/30/48 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 29/55 |
Wednesday
PM showers possible 31/53 |
Thursday
Showers likely 37/50 |
Friday
AM showers possible 34/51 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 31/57 |
Two Week Outlook: February 23 through March 1: This model continues to show well below average temperatures with a big modified arctic air mass over the interior west. The eastern Pacific high shields us from further storminess, so the risk of precipitation during this period appears low.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with locally stronger gusts through Sunday evening, becoming light after midnight Sunday. Winds Monday and Tuesday will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Periods of mainly light showers will continue through at least Sunday evening. Most locations will record no more than a tenth or two. The exceptions will be locations that are hit by thunderstorms that may develop this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. If your location happens to be in the path of one of these storms, brief localized heavy rain with small hail will be the result. More than a half inch of rain could accumulate in a short time in these locations. The showers will taper off Sunday night with dry weather Monday and well into the day Wednesday. The chance of showers will again increase by late Wednesday afternoon, becoming likely Wednesday night through Friday morning. This system really has my attention as some models are projecting that it will be colder than the current series and, theoretically, could bring snow down to the valley floor, especially late Thursday night and early Friday morning. It is kind of a tantalizing thought, but I will not eliminate the possibility. It now appears dry weather will begin Friday afternoon and continue through the weekend, although that’s a flip flop on some models so my confidence is low. Some models are now suggesting the eastern Pacific high will now shift into the U.S. for dry weather next week. For now, that’s also low confidence.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight, but only slightly above in the coldest locations. Snow is falling down to 2,000 feet along the Sierra Nevada, giving us an idea of the character of the air mass above. For tonight, heavy cloud cover and showers will generally keep most locations in the mid 30s to near 40. A few locations may tease with the freezing mark. Monday morning’s temperatures will be determined largely by the amount of cloud cover but other parameters will play smaller roles. The potential of readings falling into the 28 to 32 degree range is there but only if skies clear for an extended period of time and winds are calm. Some models show low to mid 30s Monday morning due to cloud cover while others show clearing skies. That all remains to be seen, especially in Tulare and Kern Counties. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic that cloud cover and other parameters will keep temperatures in the 30 to 35 degree range but stay tuned.
Tuesday is the morning of greatest risk. Models project mostly clear skies. The air mass will continue to be very cold as a northerly flow wraps around that modified arctic trough over the Great Basin and continues to pump in unusually cold air for this time of year. Under ideal conditions, river bottom and similar unprotected locations could drop to 27 to 31 with most flat terrain situations between 29 and 32, but that’s not a given.
Upper 20s to lower 30s are possible Wednesday morning unless cloud cover arrives in time. That cloud cover will result in showers Wednesday night through Friday morning.
Believe it or not, some models suggest this system will be even colder than the current series and could even bring snowflakes to the valley floor.
We could see below freezing temperatures again Saturday morning, but it’s too early to determine the exact makeup of the system moving in next weekend.
Some models do suggest high pressure will build in from the west after this for a mild westerly flow.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 80%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 75%/95%
Actual Humidity February 14, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 87%/57%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .40, Parlier .44, Blackwell .48, Lindcove .38, Arvin .56, Orange Cove .41, Porterville .41, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 49, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 62/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1509 -461
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 48.2 -0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 6.82 season. or +.15. Month to Date: 2.26 +1.25
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.46, or -.17. Month to Date: .61 +.17
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 728, Parlier, 715 , Arvin, 649 Shafter, 706 Stratford, 718, Delano NA, Lindcove, 1019, Porterville, 1447
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:46 am Sunset: 5:40 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:50
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 58 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 58 / 0.14 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1500 / 66 / 59 / 0.06 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 57 / 0.04 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 60 / 0.26 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 58 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 62 / 54 / 0.19 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 57 / 0.09 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 68 / 58 / 0.13 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 48 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.08 11.29 129 3.99 45 8.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.25 8.73 110 3.55 45 7.91 13.11
MERCED 0.41 8.73 121 2.29 32 7.22 12.50
MADERA 0.02 6.38 90 1.55 22 7.12 12.02
FRESNO 0.12 6.82 102 1.64 25 6.67 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 5.38 90 1.78 30 5.95 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.26 3.46 93 1.10 29 3.73 6.47
BISHOP 1.06 5.63 183 0.20 7 3.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.10 9.48 122 2.51 32 7.76 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.66 10.90 142 2.30 30 7.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.40 10.03 122 2.02 24 8.25 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/February 16