February 17, 2019
Summary: The last in this latest series of arctic systems is currently spreading showers down the valley. The latest observation at Mariposa and Oakhurst was a temperature of 32 degrees, so snow levels are probably down to 1,500 to 1,800 feet or so and perhaps 2,000 to 3,000 feet over the Kern County mountains. It will be an active day for showers and a small chance of isolated thunderstorms with hail this afternoon through this evening. The air behind this system is extremely cold and has its origins in northwest Canada. The latest challenge will be below freezing conditions over the next three nights. Most, if not all, the showers over the valley floor should be over by midnight and I do anticipate upslope clouds against the Tehachapi Mountains and, to a lesser extent, the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Areas that do see cloud cover will remain above freezing. Where it does clear is discussed in the frost summary below.
A cold north/northeast flow from western Canada will keep temperatures well below average through Wednesday with temperatures struggling to reach the 50 degree mark during the afternoons. Clouds will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon, leading to the likelihood of light showers Wednesday night through Thursday evening. This storm, on model information, will be extremely cold with snow levels possibly as low as 500 feet, meaning…especially Thursday night…there will be a small chance of flurries on the valley floor. After this system goes through, a northwest and eventually westerly flow will result in warmer temperatures over the weekend, however there is a chance for at least local frost Friday and Saturday mornings before the modification process takes place.
Models for Sunday and Monday are mixed. One model actually shows another low swinging down the coast and into California for a chance of showers while others indicate dry weather ahead. This same model is showing the cold, unsettled trough of low pressure trying to move back in during the first week in March. This is a flip flop so I’m taking a wait and see approach.
Forecast: Periods of showers today with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms with small hail and localized heavy rain this afternoon through early evening. Showers will end by midnight with clearing along the west side and towards the center of the valley. Mostly to partly cloudy skies will prevail along the east side, mainly in Tulare and Kern Counties. Becoming mostly clear Monday through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness later Wednesday with light showers becoming likely Wednesday night through Thursday night and a slight chance of snow showers Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a slight chance of showers Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/29/49/28/52 | Reedley 48/30/50/28/51 | Dinuba 47/30/49/27/52 | |
| Porterville 48/30/49/28/52 | Lindsay 49/29/49/27/51 | Delano 50/31/50/29/53 | |
| Bakersfield 48/34/48/31/53 | Taft 49/35/48/32/53 | Arvin 48/32/48/29/53 | |
| Lamont 49/31/48/29/52 | Pixley 48/30/49/28/51 | Tulare 47/30/48/27/51 | |
| Woodlake 49/29/51/28/51 | Hanford 49/31/48/29/52 | Orosi 48/29/49/28/52 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
PM showers 30/55 |
Thursday
Light showers 38/49 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 32/52 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 34/52 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 41/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 23 through March 1: This model continues to show well below average temperatures with a big modified arctic air mass over the interior west. The eastern Pacific high shields us from further storminess, so the risk of precipitation during this period appears low.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, especially along the west side. Winds will decrease later this evening, becoming generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: The latest batch of mostly light showers is spreading down the valley at this hour. Showers will be possible for the remainder of the day and into the evening hours. There’s a small chance of isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon and early evening which, of course, will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. All the shower activity should be over by the late evening hours with dry weather returning Monday through at least Wednesday morning. There’s a slight chance of light showers as early as late Wednesday afternoon, becoming likely Wednesday night through Thursday night. this disturbance is of arctic origins and will be extremely cold, possibly a bit colder than the current system. We may see snow levels down to roughly 500 feet, which gives a small chance of snow flurries on the valley floor along the back side of this system Thursday night. precipitation amounts with this system are expected to be very light as this storm is taking an over land trajectory.
Dry weather will return Friday through at least Saturday night. for next Sunday and Monday, models are inconclusive, but I do feel there’s a slight chance of showers for Sunday and Monday of next week, though I don’t have much confidence in that forecast at this time.
Frost Discussion: Tonight certainly has the potential of below freezing temperatures. It’s shaping up to be one of those variable nights as wind conditions, mixing, and especially potential cloud cover will come into play. The flow behind this system will be out of the north. Once this flow is uplifted by the Tehachapi Mountains, clouds will form and hopefully will arch out over the valley floor. That possibility is there, especially for Tulare County. Locations that do have the benefit of cloud cover will see temperatures in the low to mid 30s. where it clears for several hours and winds are not a factor, temperatures down to 27 to 29 are possible in river bottom or similar low spots. Most of the flat terrain type orchards will generally range between 29 and 31 tonight. The inversion tonight will be extremely weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 0 to 4 degrees warmer.
The north/northeast flow wrapping around the back side of the current storm will pump more and more modified arctic air into the valley Monday and Tuesday with mostly clear skies anticipated. Lows down to 27 to 29 are expected in numerous locations with low to mid 30s on hillsides.
Temperatures will be above freezing Thursday morning due to cloud cover and light showers. Friday morning will be determined by cloud cover behind the Thursday system, but potentially local frost is possible for not just Friday morning, but Saturday morning as well. The air mass will have modified enough by Sunday and add to that a slight chance of showers for above freezing conditions Sunday and Monday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
30 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 75%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 70%/95%
Actual Humidity February 16, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/56%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .37, Parlier .36, Blackwell .46, Lindcove .32, Arvin .50, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .35, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 84/29. Average Temperatures: 62/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1545 -456
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 48.2 -0.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.35 season. or +.54. Month to Date: 2.79 +1.64
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.52, or -.30. Month to Date: .84 +.14
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 751, Parlier, 730 , Arvin, 663 Shafter, 722 Stratford, 731, Delano NA, Lindcove, 1042, Porterville, 1478
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:44 am Sunset: 5:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:54
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 41 / 0.06 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 52 / 40 / 0.10 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 36 / 0.20 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1500 / 48 / 41 / 0.11 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 38 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 36 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 56 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 37 / 0.02 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 54 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.08 11.44 128 3.99 45 8.95 14.06
MODESTO 0.10 9.05 112 3.55 44 8.07 13.11
MERCED 0.16 9.25 125 2.29 31 7.39 12.50
MADERA 0.04 6.74 93 1.55 21 7.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.03 7.15 105 1.64 24 6.81 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 5.65 93 1.78 29 6.08 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 3.51 92 1.10 29 3.82 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 179 0.20 6 3.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.06 10.16 128 2.51 32 7.93 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 11.07 141 2.30 29 7.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 10.48 124 2.02 24 8.47 13.95
Next report: Sunday afternoon/February 17