February 18, 2019
Summary: Freezing levels, according to the latest balloon soundings, continue to be extremely low. The latest reading over Oakland is 3,800 feet while down the coast at Vandenberg, the reading actually lowered down to 3,700 feet. Tehachapi, as of 1:00pm, was only 32 degrees. An extremely cold northerly flow is sliding southward behind yesterday’s system from north/northeast to south/southwest. Even though surface temperatures are generally 1 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday, it’s only because of more sunshine. Dew points are down 6 degrees and, on average, are running in the mid 30s.
Upslope clouds continue to regenerate along the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and, to a lesser extent, the southern Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. As this north/northeast flow aloft continues to move into central California, these clouds will mix out during the overnight hours, leaving mostly clear skies after midnight, though some residual clouds are possible in portions of Kern County.
After very chilly morning lows, Tuesday will be cool but pleasant with mostly clear skies leading into the second night of a freeze event. Clouds will begin to rapidly increase Wednesday with a chance of scattered light showers by mid to late afternoon, becoming likely Wednesday night and Thursday. It’s hard to believe that this modified arctic low is still being advertised as colder than the recent series, possibly bringing the snow level down to the valley floor Thursday night, but that’s only if precipitation has not moved out of the area. Some models place the snow level between 500 and 1,000 feet. Whether it’s rain or snow, amounts will be very light as this storm will move over land through western Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and ending up in southern California Friday.
Friday and Saturday mornings may very well see another round of subfreezing temperatures on the valley floor before rapid moderation takes place the second half of the weekend. My confidence level, as far as the weather for Sunday and Monday goes, is very low. Some models show yet another very cold low moving from western Canada into northern California, but do not show it making it all the way into the Desert Southwest, like all the previous systems have done. The best course of action for now is to call for a small chance of showers Sunday and Monday from mainly Fresno County northward.
The chance of precipitation after Monday is low. We will also have a westerly flow aloft, finally bringing warmer air into the region. However, the two week model is showing 90% of the lower 48 with below average temperatures and low chances of rain.
Forecast: Partly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties this evening, then clearing. The remainder of the valley will be mostly clear and cold. Mostly clear Tuesday and Tuesday night with another widespread freeze later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Increasing clouds Wednesday with a chance of light, scattered showers by mid to late afternoon. Scattered, light showers will become likely Wednesday night and Thursday. A small chance of light snow showers for a time Thursday night. Becoming partly cloudy Friday through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a small chance of showers Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 27/54/29/54 | Reedley 27/53/29/54 | Dinuba 26/52/28/53 | |
| Porterville 26/54/28/54 | Lindsay 26/53/28/54 | Delano 27/54/29/54 | |
| Bakersfield 31/53/32/55 | Taft 30/53/33/55 | Arvin 28/53/30/55 | |
| Lamont 27/54/29/55 | Pixley 28/53/29/54 | Tulare 26/52/28/53 | |
| Woodlake 27/53/29/54 | Hanford 28/54/30/54 | Orosi 27/53/29/54 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest this evening at 5 to 10 MPH then will diminish, becoming generally less than 5 MPH after midnight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be at or less than 8 MPH then will be generally less than 5 MPH Tuesday night with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday will be mostly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, continuing Wednesday night. winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Wednesday morning. The chance of scattered light showers will begin to increase by mid to late Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday night through Thursday, expect scattered light showers to prevail, possibly changing to light snow showers later Thursday evening. Rainfall amounts from this upcoming system will be very minimal, ranging from a few hundredths to possibly a tenth of an inch with isolated exceptions. Dry weather will return Friday and continue through Saturday night. my confidence level tanks for Sunday and Monday as models are still very inconclusive. The best course of action is to call for a chance of showers mainly from Fresno County northward Sunday and Monday and wait for models to get their act together. By and large, right now next week looks generally dry under a flat zone of upper level high pressure. The new two week model also appears largely dry. It goes out through the fourth of March.
Frost Discussion: Tonight is shaping up to be one of the coldest of the winter despite the late date. With widespread mid to upper 20s expected, it wouldn’t be a total shock to find a sandy river bottom out there somewhere down to 24 to 25 or so. Generally speaking, the low spots will be in the 26 degree range with mostly flat terrain ranging from 27 to 29. Hillsides will generally be in the lower 30s.
Coldest low lying locations tonight will fall to 32 degrees about 9:30 to 10:00pm and 28 degrees about 2:00 or 3:00am. They will not rise above the freezing mark until close to 9:00am Tuesday morning.
The inversion tonight will be moderate with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 3 to 6 degrees warmer.
I look for a degree or two of moderation Wednesday morning then above freezing conditions Thursday morning. But despite heaving cloud cover, coldest locations may still dip near to slightly below freezing.
Friday mornings will also require close scrutiny. For now, we’ll at least call for readings in the upper 20s and lower 30s and possibly colder, assuming skies are clear and winds are near calm.
Some moderation is expected Saturday morning, but coldest locations may still dip to around 30 or so.
For Sunday morning, temperatures will be above freezing as it appears we’ll enjoy increasing cloud cover and by Monday and Tuesday more of a westerly flow will begin, pumping much milder air into central California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
25 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
27 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
27 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
38 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
27 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
27 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Tuesday morning/February 19