February 19, 2019
Summary: Absolute wall to wall sunshine this afternoon which will lead to a mostly clear night. high clouds, however, are already spreading rapidly southward over the Pacific Northwest with the leading edge of the cloud deck as far south as the northern Sacramento Valley. The modified arctic system itself is just now entering Washington state with a pool of frigid air which will be diving into northern California tonight and Wednesday morning and then into central California later Wednesday afternoon and night. from the appearance of this system, and by model guidance, the moisture field around the low is quite limited. Most locations will probably receive at or less than .10 on the valley floor, however models do show the dynamics in the upper levels of the atmosphere to be quite strong. This may be enough to trigger a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Snow levels in the nearby mountains should lower to around 1,000 feet along the back side of this system with possibly a few snow flakes reaching the valley floor late Wednesday afternoon or early evening.
Friday, and to a lesser extent Saturday, are shaping up to be very cold days once again as a modified arctic air mass yet again settles into the valley. Most of the models for the second half of the weekend and early next week are indicating only a minimal chance of showers exists, and even then from Fresno County northward, as yet another arctic low settles into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Unlike recent trends, however, this system will not dig further south so precipitation in the south valley appears unlikely.
Later next week, a large arctic trough of low pressure will extend from central Canada into the Pacific Northwest. However, underneath this low will be a developing westerly flow aloft, putting us in the warm sector for a change. Some models spit out high temperatures by Tuesday in the mid to upper 60s.
The two week model which now goes out to March 5 is showing more potential rain but not until around the 4th or 5th or so.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight, although some increase in high clouds is possible after 2:00am. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of light scattered showers beginning mid to late afternoon. Scattered light showers will be likely Wednesday night and Thursday, ending Thursday evening. Snow flurries are possible, but not likely, late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening. Partly cloudy Friday and cold. Partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night. mostly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday with a minimal chance of light showers from Fresno County north Sunday and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/53/36/48 | Reedley 29/52/37/50 | Dinuba 28/52/35/50 | |
| Porterville 29/53/35/49 | Lindsay 28/53/36/50 | Delano 29/54/37/51 | |
| Bakersfield 34/54/38/49 | Taft 34/54/35/53 | Arvin 30/51/38/50 | |
| Lamont 29/53/37/49 | Pixley 28/53/37/51 | Tulare 28/51/36/48 | |
| Woodlake 29/53/36/49 | Hanford 30/53/37/49 | Orosi 29/52/36/50 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 6 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday morning will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 8 to 15 MPH during the afternoon and evening. Late Wednesday night through Thursday evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, diminishing late Thursday night. winds Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH, diminishing Friday evening.
Rain: The chance for light scattered showers will begin to increase by mid to late afternoon Wednesday with scattered light showers likely Wednesday night through Thursday and a small chance into early Thursday evening. Light snow will fall down into the lower foothills with a few snow flakes possibly reaching the valley floor Thursday evening if any precipitation is ongoing. Rainfall amounts from this coming event will be generally less than .10. There is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon with the usual brief heavy rain and hail. If this occurs, rainfall amounts would be enhanced in those locations. Dry and cold weather will return Thursday night, continuing through Saturday night. only a small chance of showers exists from mainly Fresno County northward Sunday and Monday. Later next week is becoming more and more inconclusive with time as some models are showing rain affecting northern California but remaining too far to the north to have an impact on the central or south valley.
Frost Discussion: Skies are generally clear this afternoon throughout the valley and will remain so for most of the night. I’m looking north on satellite imagery and the first bands of high clouds ahead of the next weather maker have moved into the northern Sacramento Valley and may reach the central and south valley after 2:00am. Whether or not they’re dense enough to have much impact is up for speculation. Even so, they have may have the impact of keeping temperatures 2 to 3 degrees milder than last night, especially in the central part of the valley. Still, the very coldest locations could drop to 26 to 27 degrees tonight with most locations between 29 and 42. The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Readings Thursday morning will be above freezing, but possibly just slightly above in the coldest locations, in spite of cloud cover. We may very well be right back to square one on Friday and Saturday mornings as the air mass settling into the valley in association with the very cold Thursday storm could lower temperatures back down to 27 to 30 Friday and 28 to 32 Saturday.
Beginning Sunday, all locations will be above 32 degrees as a fundamental change shapes up. By Tuesday afternoon, we could see highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 40s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Wednesday morning/February 20