February 19, 2019
Summary: yet another cold night throughout the valley, although a little milder than expected in Tulare and Kern Counties as lower level persistent cloud cover remained along the foothills far enough out into the valley to blanket the citrus belts. Tonight will again be cold but with minor moderation in some areas. Other locations may actually be a little colder, assuming the clouds in the south valley dissipate.
We remain between a cold trough covering much of the western United States and a sharp ridge off shore that extends into Alaska. The upper winds are still out of the north. Even though freezing levels have come up slightly, they’re still very low, hovering at around 4,100 feet. How’d you like to camp last night at Tuolumne Meadows where it was negative 20 degrees? Or Shaver Lake or Lodgepole…each location at 1 degree? Even Frazier Park chilled down to 10 degrees.
The next very cold weather system is currently entering northern British Columbia and will race southward into California Wednesday morning into northern California and late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday evening into central California. Part of the low itself is over water, so it’s possible slight moderation could occur with possible snow levels in the Sierra Nevada at 1,000 to 1,500 feet. Most of the low, though, is tracking over land, so moisture will be very limited with most locations picking up .10 or less. I wouldn’t completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm with small hail Thursday afternoon.
Below freezing temperatures are likely once again Friday, but modification will finally occur over the weekend. A very cold low will drop down into the Pacific Northwest late Saturday, spreading showers over northern California, but the risk of rain in central California still appears marginal. If it occurs at all, the shower activity would be from mainly Fresno County northward Sunday and Monday.
For much of next week, models paint a flat zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean extending into California. Much milder air would move in from the west as a result with temperatures possibly struggling up to seasonal values by Tuesday.
Forecast: Outside of some morning clouds in eastern Tulare and Kern Counties, it will be mostly clear today and tonight. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of light showers by mid to late afternoon. Scattered light showers likely Wednesday night and Thursday with snow in the foothills. A diminishing chance of showers Thursday evening. Partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night. mostly cloudy Sunday and Monday with a small chance of showers from mainly Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/29/54/38/49 | Reedley 53/29/54/38/50 | Dinuba 52/28/53/37/48 | |
| Porterville 54/29/55/39/49 | Lindsay 54/28/55/38/49 | Delano 54/29/53/39/49 | |
| Bakersfield 53/35/55/39/48 | Taft 54/33/55/40/48 | Arvin 53/30/54/40/48 | |
| Lamont 54/29/54/39/49 | Pixley 54/29/55/38/50 | Tulare 53/28/53/38/48 | |
| Woodlake 54/29/53/37/48 | Hanford 54/32/55/39/49 | Orosi 53/28/53/38/49 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 29/53 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 32/58 |
Sunday
Small chance of showers 39/58 |
Monday
Small chance of showers 41/58 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 40/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 26 through March 4: This model indicates roughly 90% of the lower 48 will experience below average temperatures with about a 40% chance of below average temperatures in the valley. There will be a blocking ridge over and off the west coast, so the chance of precipitation will be low.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 8 MPH today and variable in nature and less than 5 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday will be out of the southeast at around 5 to 15 MPH then out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times Wednesday night through Thursday evening, decreasing to 5 to 10 MPH Thursday night and Friday.
Rain: There is a small chance of light, scattered showers as early as mid to late afternoon Wednesday, becoming likely Wednesday night through Thursday and tapering off Thursday evening. This is an extremely cold, modified arctic system which will lower the snow levels in the surrounding mountains to roughly 1,000 feet or so. There is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon which could briefly give isolated locations small hail and short bursts of heavy rain. The fact that this system is largely tracking over land means its moisture content will be low with most locations recording .10 or less except for locations that happen to get nailed by a thunderstorm. Dry weather will return Thursday night and continue through at least Saturday night. models are still having difficulty nailing down a pattern for the second half of the weekend into early next week. Yet another very cold low will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, spreading showers over northern California. Unlike previous occasions, this system is not forecast to dig nearly as far south so for now we’ll just go for a minimal chance of showers from Fresno north. After Monday, models appear dry as a fundamental change in the pattern sets up.
Frost Discussion: Just like magic, a layer of low clouds developed from eastern Tulare County into the eastern half of Kern County while the remainder of the valley was sparkling clear. Coldest temperatures I could find as of 6:00am were 27 degrees at Navelencia, Fowler, and Ivanhoe. Many locations were between 28 and 30. Many places in Kern County were in the lower 30s due to the blessing of the cloud cover.
Tonight could be a degree or two colder in Kern County and 1 to 3 degrees milder elsewhere due to the minor modification of the lower level of the atmosphere. Coldest locations tonight will drop down to 26 to 27 with most locations between 28 and 31. The inversion tonight will be better with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer. Hillsides, at least in some cases, will be above freezing.
On Thursday morning, all locations will be above freezing due to cloud cover and shower activity. It’s entirely possible we’ll be right back to square one Friday morning as Thursday’s storm is extremely cold and, if skies clear behind it, temperatures have the potential to drop down to 27 to 31. There will be some modification Saturday and possibly some cloud cover but even so, the coldest locations could drop into the lower 30s. we can relax for a while Sunday and beyond as the westerlies break through, bringing much milder air into California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/90%
Actual Humidity February 18, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .40, Parlier .36, Blackwell .50, Lindcove .30, Arvin .48, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .34, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 63/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1586 -441
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.6 -1.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.65 season. or +.69. Month to Date: 3.09 +1.79
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.55, or -.36. Month to Date: .87 +.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 788, Parlier, 766 , Arvin, 693 Shafter, 754 Stratford, 763, Delano NA, Lindcove, 1085, Porterville, 1526
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 am Sunset: 5:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 51 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 53 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 52 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 51 / 36 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 32 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 50 / 34 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 52 / 30 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 48 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 11.51 126 3.99 44 9.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 9.17 111 3.55 43 8.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.47 125 2.29 30 7.55 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.17 96 1.55 21 7.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.65 110 1.64 24 6.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.84 94 1.78 29 6.22 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.55 91 1.10 28 3.91 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 176 0.20 6 3.20 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 10.40 128 2.51 31 8.11 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.28 141 2.30 29 8.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.86 125 2.02 23 8.69 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/February 19