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Forecast

February 21, 2019/report

February 21, 2019

Summary:  From a meteorological point of view, this has been an interesting system to watch.  Typically, the heavier precipitation is over the mountains.  This time, it was over the valley floor which was in a deep demarcation zone between slightly milder air to our west and a very cold pool of air over Nevada.  At last report, snow was falling over Las Vegas.  The center of circulation of this storm is currently over central Nevada and will move southward into southern California later today and tonight.  The fact that the low was a tad further east than had been projected kept snow levels a little higher than they could have been.  It appears the snow level is down to 1,500 to 2,000 feet.

 

Rapid clearing is already taking place in northern California as far south as Madera County and will work its way further south during the course of the morning.  Showers will end over Kern County by mid morning but with snow showers over the Kern County mountains lasting into the evening hours.

 

The next challenge will be subfreezing temperatures over the next couple of nights as very cold, relatively dry air funnels in behind the low.  Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s are likely tonight and again tomorrow night which is discussed in detail below.

 

During the second half of the weekend, a major change will finally take place.  A low will stretch from the northern Rockies to off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.  Underneath this flow, winds aloft will be out of the west, pumping much warmer air into California.  The rain threat from Monday through Wednesday will generally be from a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line northward with only a small chance of showers as far south as Fresno County.

 

As March begins next weekend, there has been a solid trend on paper of the return of wet weather, this time with lower latitude storms and much higher snow levels.

 

Forecast: Showers ending this morning.  Clearing this afternoon except remaining partly to mostly cloudy in eastern Tulare County southward to the valley portion of Kern County.  Mostly clear tonight and cold, possibly remaining partly cloudy in southeastern Tulare County and sections of the valley region of Kern County.  Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday.  Variable cloudiness at times Sunday through Thursday with a slight chance of light showers from Fresno County north Sunday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 51/28/54/29/58 Reedley 51/29/54/30/57 Dinuba 50/27/53/29/57
Porterville 51/28/54/29/59 Lindsay 50/27/54/28/58 Delano 50/29/54/30/59
Bakersfield 50/32/55/33/60 Taft 50/32/55/35/60 Arvin 49/29/55/30/59
Lamont 50/29/55/30/59 Pixley 51/28/54/29/58 Tulare 50/27/53/29/57
Woodlake 51/29/54/29/58 Hanford 51/29/54/30/59 Orosi 50/28/53/29/58

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Variable clouds

38/61

Monday

Variable clouds

43/63

Tuesday

Slight chance of showers

47/65

Wednesday

Slight chance of showers

49/66

Thursday

Slight chance of showers

50/68

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 27 through March 5:  This model shows the return of an active weather pattern for central California with periodic chances of rain.  The general flow pattern will be out of the west, so temperatures should range near to marginally above average.

 

February:  This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February.  There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.

 

February, March, April:  At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times through this evening.  During the late evening through the early morning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Friday and Saturday will be variable to 12 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours and generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions during the night and early morning hours.

 

Rain: Showers are ending from north to south.  As of the time of this writing, showers were occurring in Kings and Tulare Counties and  moving into Kern County.  All of the precipitation will be over by midmorning.  Dry weather will return this afternoon through Sunday night.  there is a slight chance of showers as far south as Fresno County at any given time from Sunday night through Wednesday night, although it appears the rain line will stay generally from a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line north during this period.  By next weekend, models have been consistently showing a large area of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California beginning Saturday with potentially a moist westerly flow underneath this system.  Waves of low pressure will be embedded within this flow for the possibility of periods of rain for the first week in March.  Certainly, it won’t be raining all of the time, but the possibility is there for periods of rain.

Frost Discussion: Here we go again with yet another two nights of below freezing temperatures.  The coldest pool of air, fortunately, has remained over Nevada.  Even so, the air mass wrapping around the back side of the storm is unusually cold, especially for this time of year.  The very coldest wind sheltered locations tonight that have clear skies could fall to 25 to 26 degrees.  Most of your flat terrain operations will range between 28 and 32.

 

Coldest locations tonight may reach 32 around 10:00pm and 28 degrees by 3:00 to 4:00am and not rise above freezing until between 8:30 and 9:00am Friday.

The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 4 degrees warmer at most locations.

Similar conditions can be expected Saturday morning with the possibility of 1 to 2 degrees of moderation in some areas.

The good news is, after Saturday morning, we will be home free.  It’s possible Sunday morning, if skies are relatively clear, that coldest locations could dip into the lower 30s.  next week, though, will be frost free with a westerly flow bringing much milder air into California.  Even the two week model going out through March 6 indicates a westerly flow continuing with temperatures at least marginally above average.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

McFarland

27

Ducor

29

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

27

Famoso

29

Madera

28

Belridge

28

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

30

Arvin

29

Lamont

29

Plainview

28

Mettler

32

Edison

30

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing

­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Afte­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­rnoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 55%/90%

Actual Humidity February 20, 2019: Delano, NA  Porterville, 97%/40%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .50, Parlier .44, Blackwell .54, Lindcove .36, Arvin 42, Orange Cove .38, Porterville .38, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 51, Delano NA

 

Record Temperatures: 77/26. Average Temperatures: 63/41

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1630 -424

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 47.1 -2.4

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 7.65 season. or +.54. Month to Date: 3.09 +1.64

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  3.57, or -.44.  Month to Date: .89 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 821,  Parlier, 794 ,  Arvin, 723 Shafter, 783  Stratford, 793, Lindcove, 1116, Porterville, 1561

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:39 am  Sunset: 5:46 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:06

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  57 /  36 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  52 /  38 /    T /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  56 /  32 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  54 /  29 / 0.03 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  53 /  34 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  53 /  34 /    T /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1556 /  57 /  31 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  54 /  31 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  54 /  36 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  55 /  36 /    T /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   11.51   123    3.99    43     9.32    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    9.17   109    3.55    42     8.41    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.47   123    2.29    30     7.73    12.50

MADERA                           T    7.17    94    1.55    20     7.61    12.02

FRESNO                           T    7.65   108    1.64    23     7.11    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    5.84    92    1.78    28     6.36    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.55    89    1.10    27     4.01     6.47

BISHOP                           T    5.63   172    0.20     6     3.27     5.18

SALINAS                       0.03   10.43   126    2.51    30     8.30    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.04   11.32   138    2.30    28     8.21    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.04   10.90   122    2.02    23     8.92    13.95

 

 

Next report:  Thursday afternoon/February 21