February 22, 2019
Summary: The center of circulation of the very cold modified arctic low is now moving into southwest Arizona and heading eastward from there. In its wake, a weak ridge of u pper level high pressure is now moving in from the eastern Pacific. This will result in a couple of dry days with a warming trend which will begin Saturday. Yet another very cold night last night with widespread upper 20s and some lower 30s. Yet another night of subfreezing temperatures can be expected tonight with similar readings expected.
Beginning Sunday, the long awaited change in the pattern will occur, leading ot much warmer weather next week. An elongated low will stretch out from Montana westward to off shore Washington with the beginning of a zonal flow, which is basically west to east. There will be somewhat of a tropical tap underneath this low, resulting in showers for northern California Monday through Wednesday. Some models are now moving the rain line into central California Tuesday night and Wednesday. We’ll up the ante a bit as far as precipitation chances are concerned and go with that.
By Thursday, upper level high pressure will be upwelling ahead of a large lower latitude storm which will approach the coast of Oregon and northern California by Friday.
Next weekend, the chance of rain next weekend will go up exponentially as the beginning of possibly a series of disturbances moving from west to east underneath the low heads into central California. Unlike the pattern for the past three weeks, snow levels will be much higher with possibly a greater potential for heavier precipitation. The two week model covering the first week in March shows the highest chance of rain anywhere in the lower 48 will be over northern and north/central California.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through tonight. Mostly clear Saturday and Saturday night with periods of high clouds at times. Variable cloudiness Sunday through Wednesday night with a chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/29/58/33/62 | Reedley 55/29/57/34/61 | Dinuba 53/28/57/33/60 | |
| Porterville 55/29/58/33/63 | Lindsay 54/28/58/32/62 | Delano 55/30/58/34/63 | |
| Bakersfield 55/32/59/36/64 | Taft 55/32/59/38/63 | Arvin 54/30/59/34/64 | |
| Lamont 54/29/59/37/64 | Pixley 54/29/58/33/62 | Tulare 53/28/57/32/61 | |
| Woodlake 54/29/58/33/62 | Hanford 55/30/58/33/63 | Orosi 54/28/58/32/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly cloudy 44/66 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 46/65 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 49/67 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 46/68 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 48/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 1 through March 7: If this model has a handle on things, the pattern for the first week in March will be an active one with lower latitude storms affecting central California from time to time. With a generally west or even southwest flow, temperatures will be above average for a change.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally variable at 5 to 12 MPH through Monday. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There is a slight chance of showers from Fresno County northward Monday and Tuesday. The chance of rain will be greater Wednesday and Wednesday night as theoretically a batch of subtropical moisture will move in from the southwest. Next Thursday and probably Friday will be dry. As we begin March, models are still hinting towards lower latitude storms affecting our region with periodic bouts of rain.
Frost Discussion: as of 7:00am, the coldest location was Ivanhoe at 26. Fowler was close behind at 27 with a whole slew of 28s to 32 degrees.
Last night was somewhat chaotic in the south valley as there was in and out upslope clouds for much of the night which did keep temperatures in the lower 30s. Over the remainder of the area, skies were generally clear with the exception of southeast Tulare County. Mid to upper 20s were widespread in the areas with clear skies. Even though daytime highs will be somewhat warmer today and will range in the low to mid 50s, the air mass behind the exiting modified arctic low is relatively dry and still cold.
Coldest locations tonight will dip down to 26 to 27 degrees with most locations between 28 and 31. The inversion tonight will be a bit better with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 3 to 6 degrees warmer. Coldest locations tonight will reach the freezing mark around 10:00pm and 28 degrees around 3 to 4:00am. Temperatures will not rise to above freezing in those locations until about 8:30 to 9:00am Saturday morning.
The good news is that after tonight we can say goodbye to 20 degree readings. Beginning Sunday, a much warmer westerly flow across the Pacific will develop, moving inland through California. This flow will be with us through much of next week, bringing much warmer temperatures with it. There will also be a considerable amount of cloud cover from time to time with overnight lows generally in the 40s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s, possibly the lower 70s by Friday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
Mcfarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
29 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/90%
Actual Humidity February 20, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .50, Parlier .44, Blackwell .54, Lindcove .36, Arvin 42, Orange Cove .38, Porterville .38, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 77/26. Average Temperatures: 63/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1630 -424
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.1 -2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.65 season. or +.54. Month to Date: 3.09 +1.64
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.57, or -.44. Month to Date: .89 +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 821, Parlier, 794 , Arvin, 723 Shafter, 783 Stratford, 793, Lindcove, 1116, Porterville, 1561
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 5:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 36 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 52 / 38 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 29 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 53 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 34 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 57 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 54 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 55 / 36 / T /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 11.51 123 3.99 43 9.32 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 9.17 109 3.55 42 8.41 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.47 123 2.29 30 7.73 12.50
MADERA T 7.17 94 1.55 20 7.61 12.02
FRESNO T 7.65 108 1.64 23 7.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.84 92 1.78 28 6.36 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.55 89 1.10 27 4.01 6.47
BISHOP T 5.63 172 0.20 6 3.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.03 10.43 126 2.51 30 8.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.04 11.32 138 2.30 28 8.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.04 10.90 122 2.02 23 8.92 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/February 22