February 23, 2019
Summary: Wall to wall sunshine is observed across central California this morning. The combination of lots of sunshine and weak upper level high pressure aloft will push high temperatures this afternoon to near the 60 degree mark in the warmer locations. Readings tonight will largely be above freezing due to a moderating air mass and high clouds which will begin to move in from the northwest during the overnight hours. From later Sunday through Tuesday night, a low will stretch from Washington state to several hundred miles off shore. Underneath that low will be the formation of a subtropical feed which will result in significant precipitation for northern California.
In the meantime, underneath this low a mild westerly flow will prevail, allowing our temperatures to move upwards into the 60s each day for the upcoming week with overnight lows generally ranging in the 40s.
By late Wednesday, that zone of active weather in northern California and off shore will sink southward into central California for an increasing chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly lasting into Thursday. A ridge of upper level high pressure will quickly upwell ahead of a large mid Pacific low pressure system which will be right off the northern California coast Saturday. Beneath this low will be a series of disturbances which will race into central and southern California for periodic bouts of precipitation. This pattern will be completely opposite of recent rains which brought snow to sea level in southern California and cold rain elsewhere. Instead, it will be replaced by high snow levels with the possibility of heavy amounts of precipitation again over the Sierra Nevada. By a week from Tuesday, models indicate we’ll have a couple of dry days before another low follows a similar path for a renewed chance of precipitation. The new two week model is indicating there’s about a 70% chance of above average precipitation for northern and central California and above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning. High clouds will begin to mix in this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight. Variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday night. a chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday night. becoming partly cloudy Friday. Rain likely Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/33/60/41/66 | Reedley 59/34/62/42/66 | Dinuba 58/32/60/41/66 | |
| Porterville 61/33/60/42/67 | Lindsay 60/32/61/39/66 | Delano 60/34/62/42/67 | |
| Bakersfield 61/38/62/44/68 | Taft 61/39/62/45/68 | Arvin 61/35/62/41/68 | |
| Lamont 61/34/62/42/67 | Pixley 61/33/62/43/66 | Tulare 59/32/61/41/65 | |
| Woodlake 60/33/62/40/65 | Hanford 60/33/62/42/67 | Orosi 60/32/60/41/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Chance of rain 45/66 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 48/62 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 49/67 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 41/63 |
Saturday
Rain likely 47/67 |
Two Week Outlook: March 1 through March 7: If this model has a handle on things, the pattern for the first week in March will be an active one with lower latitude storms affecting central California from time to time. With a generally west or even southwest flow, temperatures will be above average for a change.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally variable at 5 to 12 MPH through Tuesday. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions through Monday night. a zone of active weather over northern California and off shore will sag southward Tuesday through Thursday. There will be a chance of showers Tuesday with a likelihood of rain Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday night and Friday will likely be dry then a large mid Pacific storm will spread precipitation over all of California over the weekend. Significant amounts of precipitation cannot be ruled out, especially up and down the Sierra Nevada. Week after next also looks to be an active period with a dominant west to east flow, steering milder Pacific storms our way. All in all, it appears the first ten days in March will see bouts of precipitation from time to time.
Frost Discussion: The coldest locations tonight will dip into the lower 30s with most locations from 33 to 37. The pattern for the remainder of the week will continue to be a mild westerly flow in the upper atmosphere. I do not look for any additional chances of frost for the next week to possibly ten days.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/85%
Actual Humidity February 22, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .50, Parlier .48, Blackwell .52, Lindcove .38, Arvin 43, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .39, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 49, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 64/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1671 -409
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 46.8 -2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.79 season. or +.53. Month to Date: 3.23 +1.63
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.75, or -.35. Month to Date: 1.07 +.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 853, Parlier, 825 , Arvin, 763 Shafter, 819 Stratford, 823, Lindcove, 1151, Porterville, 1602
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 5:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 33 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 30 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 53 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 55 / 30 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 52 / 35 / 0.06 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 55 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 11.53 121 3.99 42 9.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 9.17 107 3.56 41 8.58 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.48 120 2.30 29 7.92 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.32 94 1.58 20 7.79 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.79 107 1.65 23 7.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.95 92 1.78 27 6.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.75 91 1.10 27 4.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 169 0.20 6 3.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 10.43 123 2.51 30 8.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.32 135 2.30 27 8.41 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.97 120 2.02 22 9.15 13.95
Next report: Sunday morning/February 24