February 25, 2019
Summary: Even with the heavy cloud cover, today’s temperatures will be rather spring like as they warm into the mid to upper 60s. freezing levels are steadily rising. The balloon sounding over Oakland overnight indicated a freezing level of 7,900 feet and 8,900 feet above Vandenberg. For the next 48 hours, northern California will be drenched with copious amounts of precipitation as a low pressure system centered over Washington state has drawn up a pineapple connection which will not move much during the next 2 days. Six inches plus over the northern Sierra Nevada seems plausible. That feed of subtropical moisture will slowly sag southward with a chance of rain north of Kern County sometime as early as Tuesday night. Rain will become likely Wednesday through Thursday morning. With the flow out of the west/southwest, a rain shadow will surely develop along the west side and over the south valley. It appears Kern County will receive very little precipitation but half inch plus amounts over the rest of the valley north of Kern County seems likely.
Thursday afternoon through Friday night will be dominated by an upwelling ridge of high pressure which will quickly move from west to east for a temporary period of dry weather. This high will be followed by a large in scope lower latitude Pacific storm which should be centered just west of San Francisco Saturday. The fact that this is a warmer type system means it has the potential to produce significant rain fall, especially over the Sierra Nevada with relatively high snow levels, probably between 7,000 and 8000 feet. This will be a slow mover so periods of rain can be expected Saturday through Sunday night.
Another temporary ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Monday through Wednesday of next week. Models show yet another similar lower latitude storm moving into California about a week from Wednesday or so for what looks like our next bout of active weather.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Tuesday. A chance of showers after midnight Tuesday. Periods of rain, mainly north of Kern County, Wednesday through Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. Periods of rain Saturday through Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/47/65/49/63 | Reedley 67/47/63/49/63 | Dinuba 65/46/63/48/62 | |
| Porterville 67/47/65/49/64 | Lindsay 67/47/64/49/64 | Delano 67/47/65/49/64 | |
| Bakersfield 68/48/68/50/65 | Taft 68/49/67/51/65 | Arvin 68/47/68/49/64 | |
| Lamont 67/47/67/49/65 | Pixley 67/46/63/48/63 | Tulare 65/46/63/47/62 | |
| Woodlake 66/46/63/48/63 | Hanford 67/47/64/48/64 | Orosi 66/45/63/47/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM showers 51/63 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 42/61 |
Saturday
Periods of rain 50/67 |
Sunday
Periods of rain 51/66 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 44/64 |
Two Week Outlook: March 3 through March 9: Northern and central California still have the highest chance of rain of any location in the lower 48 during this period as a moist, westerly flow brings mild Pacific storms into California. Temperatures under this regime will generally be above seasonal averages.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
March, April, May: This model is calling for a return to mainly above average temperatures over the 90 day period. It does not give a clue whether precipitation will be above or below average, so if you wish to go along with this guidance, precipitation should be fairly close to average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH today. Winds tonight through Tuesday will continue out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts over 25 MPH from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Wednesday through Wednesday night will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts at times, especially from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Thursday will decrease to around 5 to 12 MPH.
Rain: The chance for rain north of Kern County will begin after midnight Tuesday night and become likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will be a short lived pineapple connection with heavy amounts of precipitation up and down the Sierra Nevada, especially from Kings Canyon north. The fact that the flow aloft will be out of the west/southwest means a strong rain shadow will develop along the west side and especially in Kern County. Rainfall amounts from Fresno County northward could approach .50, sloping down into Kern County for generally less than .10 being expected. That rain shadow may reduce rain fall amounts along the west side, though amounts totaling .25 are possible. Dry weather will return Thursday and last through Friday night then a strong, lower latitude storm will spread precipitation over the entire valley Saturday through Sunday night. On paper, this looks like a good precipitation producer with relatively high snow levels in the mountains. If models are correct, we should see some dry weather Monday through Wednesday of next week with possibly another lower latitude storm affecting central California by next Wednesday night or Thursday.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity February 23, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .51, Blackwell .54, Lindcove .41, Arvin 48, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .42, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 49, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 64/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1692 -401
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 46.7 -3.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.79 season. or +.53. Month to Date: 3.23 +1.63
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.75, or -.39. Month to Date: 1.07 +.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 866, Parlier, 837 , Arvin, 775 Shafter, 832 Stratford, 835, Lindcove, 1166, Porterville, 1618
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 5:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 56 / 27 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 48 / 30 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 11.53 120 3.99 42 9.59 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 9.17 106 3.56 41 8.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.48 118 2.30 29 8.02 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.32 93 1.58 20 7.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.79 106 1.65 22 7.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.95 91 1.78 27 6.57 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.75 91 1.10 27 4.14 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 167 0.20 6 3.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 10.43 122 2.51 29 8.56 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.32 133 2.30 27 8.51 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.97 118 2.02 22 9.26 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/February 25