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Forecast

February 26, 2019/report

February 26, 2019

Summary:  A stalled frontal system remains over  northern California this morning.  The frontal system has plenty of moisture moving in from the west/southwest via the pineapple connection.  As  much as 6 inches of rain has fallen over the mountainous terrain over Ukiah with as much as 2 to 4 inches over the northern Sierra Nevada.  The front will finally begin to sag southward into central California tonight with precipitation slowly spreading southward.  The front will begin to lose its upper air support once it moves into the south valley and southern California.  This, combined with rain shadowing along the west side and in Kern County will zap precipitation potential in the south valley, especially in Kern County.

 

Since this is an atmospheric river of air, snow levels will be  between 7,500 and 8,000 feet.  This will be a slow mover so expect periods of rain from Tuesday night through Thursday.  A fast  moving ridge of upper level high pressure will move in from the eastern Pacific Thursday night and Friday.  The high will quickly move eastward into the Great Basin by Saturday, allowing another lower latitude storm to move in from the west/southwest.  The main punch will be in the northern sections of central California and northern California, but precipitation will spread over the entire valley Saturday with periods of rain possibly lasting well into Sunday.

 

A ridge of high pressure will again build in from the west Sunday night through Tuesday.  Clouds will increase again by Tuesday night as yet another lower latitude storm moves into northern and central California late Tuesday night through sometime Thursday with potentially significant amounts of precipitation.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy north of Kern County with a chance of sprinkles today. Partly cloudy in Kern County.  Periods of rain later tonight through Thursday.  A chance of showers Thursday evening then becoming partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday evening.  Increasing clouds again later Friday night leading to periods of rain Saturday through Sunday.  A slight chance of showers Sunday night.  becoming partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 68/49/62/51/63 Reedley 70/51/64/52/62 Dinuba 69/50/63/51/61
Porterville 72/51/62/52/63 Lindsay 72/50/63/51/63 Delano 73/51/64/53/63
Bakersfield 75/53/65/53/63 Taft 73/54/64/53/62 Arvin 75/52/65/53/64
Lamont 76/53/65/53/64 Pixley 72/52/64/52/63 Tulare 69/51/63/51/62
Woodlake 71/53/63/52/63 Hanford 71/52/63/53/63 Orosi 70/50/63/51/61

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Partly cloudy

47/63

Saturday

Periods of rain

49/61

Sunday

Periods of rain

52/67

Monday

Partly cloudy

44/66

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

46/68

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 5 through March 10:  Northern and central California still have the highest chance of rain of any location in the lower 48 during this period as a moist, westerly flow brings mild Pacific storms into California.  Temperatures under this regime will generally be below seasonal averages.

 

March:  February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting.  The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions.  Can you say “Ooops”?  anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).

 

February, March, April:  At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  From Fresno County north and along the west side, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH this morning, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH this afternoon through Wednesday with stronger gusts, and diminishing to 10 to 15 MPH Thursday.  Winds Friday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH.  In Tulare and Kern Counties, winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH this afternoon through Wednesday.  Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be in the 5 to 15 MPH range.

 

Rain: There is a chance of a few sprinkles from Fresno County northward today.  A stalled frontal system over northern California and its associated pineapple connection will move slowly southward today, finally moving overhead by Wednesday afternoon.  As the front moves southward, it will lose its dynamics so precipitation amounts south of a Visalia/Hanford line are expected to be pretty anemic.  Rain shadows will also develop along the west side and in Kern County, further zapping the chance of more significant rainfall.

 

From tonight through Thursday, Fresno and Madera Counties could pick up .33 to .50, northern Tulare County about .25, with southern Tulare County tallying .10 to .20.  Most locations in Kern County will record .10 or less.

 

Dry weather will return Thursday night through Friday night then a lower latitude storm will move into northern California Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  the latest forecast models are not as bullish on this storm.  Even so, rain will spread over the area Saturday and continue at times, especially over the mountains, Sunday.  Dry weather will return Sunday night through Tuesday.  By late Tuesday night through Thursday, yet another lower latitude storm will spread precipitation over northern and central California.  For now, potential rainfall amounts are difficult to discern.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 35%/90%

Actual Humidity February 25, 2019: Delano, NA  Porterville, 90%/21%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .59, Parlier .61, Blackwell .59, Lindcove .54, Arvin 63, Orange Cove .58, Porterville .55, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 49, Delano NA

 

Record Temperatures: 83/25. Average Temperatures: 64/42

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1715 -403

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 47.2 -2.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 7.79 season. or +.31. Month to Date: 3.23 +1.41

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  3.75, or -.48.  Month to Date: 1.07 -.04

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 876,  Parlier, 845 ,  Arvin, 785 Shafter, 847  Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1175, Porterville, 1646

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:32 am  Sunset: 5:51 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:18

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  72 /  49 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  69 /  48 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  71 /  44 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  70 /  42 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  73 /  41 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  69 /  46 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1553 /  68 /  44 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  74 /  43 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1554 /  69 /  45 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  61 /   M /    M /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   11.53   118    3.99    41     9.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    9.17   104    3.56    40     8.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.48   116    2.30    28     8.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.32    91    1.58    20     8.06    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.79   104    1.65    22     7.48    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    5.95    89    1.78    26     6.72    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.75    89    1.10    26     4.23     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    5.63   164    0.20     6     3.43     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   10.43   119    2.51    29     8.74    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.32   130    2.30    26     8.71    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.97   116    2.02    21     9.48    13.95

 

 

Next report:  Tuesday afternoon/February 26