February 27, 2019
Summary: What is left of an atmospheric river of air is moving through Santa Barbara and Kern Counties at this hour. Some light showers are still falling over the valley portion of Kern County from Bakersfield southward. Further north, Doppler radar is indicating light showers are forming over the Coast Range then dissipating on the lee side of the range with new showers forming as soon as the air is lifted by the Sierra Nevada. Most locations over the past 24 hours on the valley floor have received just a few hundredths of an inch. In Tulare County, Peppermint has received .44 and Eagle Creek, which is above Fountain Springs, has picked up .73. most other locations in the mountains have picked up less than .35.
The westerly flow across the Pacific will continue to move into central California through Thursday. There will be a chance of scattered showers on the valley floor tonight and Thursday but amounts, if any, will remain light. A fast moving ridge of high pressure will move through Thursday night through Friday evening then a lower latitude storm will sweep through northern and central California over the weekend with possibly significant amounts of precipitation over the Sierra Nevada. Modeling of the atmosphere indicates a strong rain shadow along the far west side and over Kern County, however the east side, especially near the foothills, may do pretty well.
Showers will taper off Sunday evening then the next ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will move in from the west Monday and Monday night. we may see a significant weather event beginning Tuesday night but especially Wednesday and Thursday. Models are portraying this storm as a big swath of tropical moisture moving in from the southwest, possibly driving snow levels about 8,000 to 9,000 feet. If this pineapple connection, along with a major Pacific storm, comes to fruition, very heavy amounts could occur over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains with significant amounts on the valley floor.
After Thursday of next week, models indicate the storm door will remain open. The latest two week model continues to indicate storm systems possibly moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California between the 7 and the 13. It’s hard to believe it’s already almost March.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Thursday evening with a chance of scattered showers. Partly cloudy later Thursday night through Friday evening. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of rain after midnight. Periods of rain Saturday and Saturday night with showers Sunday. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday. Increasing cloudiness again Monday night with an increasing chance of rain after midnight Tuesday night. rain becoming likely Wednesday through Thursday, possibly locally heavy at times.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/65/48/62 | Reedley 51/66/49/63 | Dinuba 49/65/49/63 | |
| Porterville 50/67/50/64 | Lindsay 49/67/49/64 | Delano 51/66/49/65 | |
| Bakersfield 54/68/51/65 | Taft 53/67/53/65 | Arvin 51/68/53/65 | |
| Lamont 52/68/52/65 | Pixley 51/66/50/64 | Tulare 50/65/48/63 | |
| Woodlake 51/66/50/64 | Hanford 52/66/50/64 | Orosi 49/65/49/64 | |
Winds: Winds this afternoon from Fresno County north and along the west side have been gusting to between 25 and 33 MPH. In Tulare and Kern Counties, winds are generally in the 5 to 15 MPH range. Winds tonight will be generally in the 5 to 15 MPH range with locally stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Thursday night through Friday evening will be generally at or less than 12 MPH. Winds Friday night through Saturday night will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH along the west side and from Fresno County north. In Tulare county, winds will generally be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH. There is a small chance of strong, gusty winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains Saturday. Right now, that chance appears to be about 20% or so. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: There is a chance of light showers tonight and Thursday. The best chance tonight will be in Kern County. Rain shadows are drying out much of the valley this afternoon as showers form over the Coast Range then dissipate along the west side. Thursday night and Friday will be dry. The chance for rain will increase Friday night, especially after midnight. Expect periods of rain Saturday and Saturday night, turning to showers Sunday. Rainfall amounts Friday night through Sunday on the valley floor will be determined by the strength of renewed rain shadows along the west side. The potential of over .50 is possible from northern Tulare County through Madera County with much less elsewhere. Dry weather will ensue Sunday night through Monday evening then the chance of rain will begin to increase again late Monday night and Tuesday. This storm has a greater potential for flooding in the mountain areas as models indicate it will have a well established pineapple connection pushing snow levels up as high as 9,000 feet. All models are currently indicating it’s a well developed subtropical Pacific storm with all kinds of dynamics. We’ll tweak this forecast as we move ahead. Down the road, from the 7 through the 13, some models but not all are indicating possible activity moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California for more rain and colder temperatures, however, that’s a low confidence call at this time.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Next report: Thursday morning/February 28