February 27, 2019
Summary: The stationary cold front which has been draped over northern California, resulting in tremendous amounts of rain in some areas, is finally being shoved southward by a low pressure system currently moving into northern California. The moisture feed from the atmospheric river of air is now in southcentral California. However, the flow has really dried up so nothing really significant is expected. As the front moves into southern California today, it will be followed by a marginally cooler air mass. Even so, lower 60s are expected.
The flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is out of the west, so a chance of showers will continue this afternoon and last possibly through Thursday. My feeling, though, is most of the action will be over the Sierra Nevada.
The latest valley observations indicate gusty southeast winds along the west side and from Merced County northward, along the east side with gusts ranging between 25 and 35 MPH. Winds in Tulare and Kern Counties are currently less than 15 MPH. gusty winds will continue in those same areas through this afternoon, but as that low moves out of northern California, winds will decrease by this evening.
A fast moving ridge of high pressure will move in Thursday night through Friday evening. A lower latitude Pacific storm will approach the coast Friday night with some models now indicating the center of circulation will move inland near Monterey Saturday. Significant precipitation will occur thanks to orographics along the Sierra Nevada. Strong rain shadows will develop along the west side of the valley and in Kern County. This has been a strong trend in many of the winter storms this season. Periods of rain will continue through Sunday then another fast moving high will move in Sunday night and Monday. And, guess what? There’s ‘another one out there in the form of a lower latitude storm which, if models have a good handle on it, will pound California possibly as early as late Tuesday but for sure Tuesday night through Thursday.
The latest two week model points to the storm door remaining open from the 6 through the 12, but this time weather systems will originate in the Gulf of Alaska.
Forecast: Light showers likely this morning. Widely scattered light showers this afternoon with a chance of showers tonight through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of rain after midnight. Periods of rain Saturday and Saturday night with showers likely Sunday. A small chance of showers Monday and Monday night with rain becoming likely late Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/50/65/50/62 | Reedley 62/51/65/49/62 | Dinuba 61/49/64/46/63 | |
| Porterville 63/51/67/50/63 | Lindsay 62/49/65/49/64 | Delano 63/51/67/53/64 | |
| Bakersfield 64/53/68/53/64 | Taft 63/54/68/54/64 | Arvin 63/51/68/53/64 | |
| Lamont 64/52/68/53/65 | Pixley 62/51/65/50/63 | Tulare 61/50/65/49/62 | |
| Woodlake 62/49/65/48/62 | Hanford 62/50/66/49/63 | Orosi 61/48/65/48/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Rain likely 53/65 |
Sunday
Showers likely 53/67 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 45/66 |
Tuesday
PM rain 48/68 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 52/69 |
Two Week Outlook: March 6 through March 12: The storm door will remain open during this time frame, but a fundamental change does occur. Potential storm systems will originate in the Gulf of Alaska, meaning temperatures will likely be below average with lower snow levels along the Sierra Nevada.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: From Fresno County north and along the west side north of Kern County, winds will be generally out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts. In Tulare and Kern Counties, winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with possible stronger gusts. Tonight through Friday, winds will be generally in the 5 to 15 MPH range while from late Friday night through Saturday gusty southeast winds will develop between 15 and 35 MPH along the west side. This time around it’s possible we could see some strong gusts at the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. We’ll study this as we approach the weekend.
Rain: The atmospheric river of air has moved into central California. However, it pales in comparison to what occurred over northern California the past few days so only light showers are expected. The showers will become more widely scattered this afternoon through Thursday. In all likelihood, most of the precip will be over the Sierra Nevada tonight and Thursday with a chance of light showers over the valley floor. Dry weather will return Thursday night through Friday. The chance of precipitation will again increase Friday night ahead of a significant lower latitude storm which will result in heavy amounts of precipitation along the Sierra Nevada. Rainfall on the valley floor will be determined by the formation of rain shadows along the Coast Range. The east side, especially near the foothills, could pick up significant amounts of rain with much lower amounts in Kern County and along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties. Showers will continue through Sunday then a short dry period can be expected Sunday night through Monday night. the chance of rain will increase again by late Tuesday as yet another lower latitude system, potentially the strongest of the series, moves into California with potentially heavy precipitation. Beyond Wednesday of next week, the pattern still appears to be unsettled regarding precipitation for next weekend. The two week model shows the storm door remaining open but this time the precip is expected to be out of the Gulf of Alaska.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/95%
Actual Humidity February 26, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 92%/37%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .57, Parlier .60, Blackwell .60, Lindcove .53, Arvin 64, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .56, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 50, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/26. Average Temperatures: 65/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1725 -405
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.5 -2.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.79 season. or +.24. Month to Date: 3.23 +1.34
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.75, or -.52. Month to Date: 1.07 -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 802 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31 am Sunset: 5:52 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 71 / 62 / 0.00
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / M / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 64 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 69 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 50 / T /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.45 11.98 122 4.93 50 9.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.08 9.25 104 3.73 42 8.91 13.11
MERCED T 9.48 114 2.56 31 8.29 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.32 90 1.74 21 8.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.79 103 1.78 24 7.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.95 88 1.86 27 6.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.75 88 1.32 31 4.27 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 163 0.20 6 3.46 5.18
SALINAS T 10.43 118 2.64 30 8.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.32 128 2.66 30 8.81 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.97 114 2.16 23 9.59 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/February 27