March 1, 2019
Summary: The next Pacific storm is several hundred miles off the southern central coast and is moving at a pretty good clip across the eastern Pacific. It will begin to spread showers into central California tonight. Satellite imagery is showing a ton of mid and high level clouds moving northeastward from the subtropics and into California. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some showers occur today, but if this occurs at all, the activity would be widely scattered. Again, the pace of the precipitation will pick up tonight, especially after midnight.
The parent low will move across northern and central California by late morning Saturday. There is some indication the up and down motion in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, combined with daytime heating Saturday, could produce isolated thunderstorms. The rain will begin to taper off later Saturday night, however, in the zonal or westerly flow across the Pacific, weak disturbances will also move through Sunday for a renewed chance of showers, especially over the Sierra Nevada.
A fast moving ridge of high pressure will very temporarily take over Sunday night and Monday. The chance of rain will rapidly pick up again Monday night and especially Tuesday night and Wednesday. It’s interesting to see how models are battling it out to try to determine just where our atmospheric river of air will move on shore. Models yesterday were indicating the central coast but are now indicating southern San Luis Obispo County down to Los Angeles County. This would mean the heaviest precipitation would be over Kern County and southern California. The European model and others show the AR moving inland further north. At any rate, this will be a very warm storm which potentially will carry a lot of water.
Even after the main area of low pressure moves through, models are pointing to more disturbances moving in from the west for reasonably decent chances of showers Thursday and Friday, as well. Possibly some dry weather next weekend and into early next week, but if models hold, there is more rain down the road.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today with a small chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers. Showers tonight through Saturday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Showers Sunday. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday. Rain likely at times later Monday night through Wednesday, potentially heavy at times. Heaviest precipitation could actually be in the south valley. Showers likely Wednesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/52/63/52/65 | Reedley 63/53/63/52/64 | Dinuba 62/52/62/53/63 | |
| Porterville 65/53/66/52/65 | Lindsay 65/54/65/52/65 | Delano 66/54/66/53/66 | |
| Bakersfield 67/54/67/54/66 | Taft 67/56/67/64/66 | Arvin 67/53/67/54/65 | |
| Lamont 67/54/67/54/65 | Pixley 65/63/65/53/64 | Tulare 64/52/64/52/64 | |
| Woodlake 64/51/63/52/64 | Hanford 64/54/63/53/64 | Orosi 63/52/63/53/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
PM rain 48/66 |
Tuesday
Heavy rain 54/64 |
Wednesday
Heavy rain possible 53/67 |
Thursday
Showers likely 48/65 |
Friday
Chance of showers 44/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 8 through March 14: The storm door will remain open during this time frame, but a fundamental change does occur. Potential storm systems will originate in the Gulf of Alaska, meaning temperatures will likely be below average with lower snow levels along the Sierra Nevada.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the west at 12 MPH today. Later tonight through Sunday, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County south and along the west side. In Tulare County, winds will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. In Kern County, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with a small chance of localized gusts to around 40 MPH near the base of the Tehachapis, mainly late tonight and Saturday.
Rain: I wouldn’t completely rule out sprinkles or isolated light showers today. The pace of precipitation will begin to pick up later tonight with periods of showers Saturday and Saturday night. some models are indicating the possibility of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening which would be accompanied by localized heavy rain. The risk of showers Sunday will be high as further disturbances move from west to east through central California. We get to dry out for a few hours Sunday night through Monday just in time for a very moist subtropical storm system which will have strong dynamics moving in from the northern sector of the storm. There will also be a classic pineapple connection which will come on shore somewhere along the central or southern California coast. Where this atmospheric river of air comes on shore will be the zone of heaviest precipitation. Some models this morning have moved this zone further south, from the southern San Luis Obispo County southward to Los Angeles County. Others, however, show it moving on shore further north. More disturbances of a much weaker variety will move on shore Thursday and Friday, keeping the chance of showers relatively high through the week. It’s possible to see some dry weather next weekend, but medium range models are still indicating the possibility of more active weather in the medium term.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/90%
Actual Humidity February 28, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/53%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .63, Parlier .63, Blackwell .63, Lindcove .63, Arvin 69, Orange Cove .62, Porterville .66, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 51, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 52, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 65/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1738 -417
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 48.3 -2.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.82 season. or +.13. Month to Date: 3.26 +1.23
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.88, or -.48. Month to Date: 1.20 -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:28 am Sunset: 5:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 68 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 55 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 50 / 0.20 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 46 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 52 / 0.12 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 54 / 0.20 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 53 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 65 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.01 12.77 128 4.96 50 10.01 14.06
MODESTO T 9.32 103 3.75 41 9.07 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 113 2.58 30 8.46 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.57 91 1.76 21 8.31 12.02
FRESNO T 7.82 102 1.90 25 7.69 11.50
HANFORD 0.18 6.19 90 2.08 30 6.90 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 3.88 89 1.32 30 4.36 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 160 0.20 6 3.52 5.18
SALINAS 0.03 10.49 117 2.64 29 9.00 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.68 130 2.66 30 9.00 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 11.16 114 2.16 22 9.79 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/March 1