March 2, 2019
Summary: A rather robust cold front moved rapidly through the valley just before sunrise. As the front moved through, heavy rain spread from southwest to northeast across the valley. Interestingly enough, the valley portion of Kern County received the heaviest rain with a number of locations recording well over .50. North of Kern County, amounts were generally near .33. The fact that the front was moving along at 50 plus miles per hour limited the amount of rain that fell. Radar indicates numerous showers are moving on shore, leading us into what will be an active day today. This system and its associated low pressure will move across the valley in the mid to late morning hours. There may be enough dynamics for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to fire up during the late morning and afternoon hours. Showers will begin to taper off tonight over the valley floor, but that strong, juicy westerly flow across the Pacific and into California will be lifted by the Sierra Nevada, allowing showers to continue well into Sunday while the valley remains dry.
A ridge of high pressure will quickly move through late Sunday through Monday afternoon for a short but well deserved slot of dry weather. After midnight Monday, the chance for showers will increase yet again ahead of a juicy looking low pressure system. This storm will have all the proper ingredients for a major weather event. Plenty of cold air will surge into its northwest flank as the low approaches the northern California coast. In the meantime, a substantial tropical connection will develop, creating an atmospheric river of air. Current models move this AR right across the valley Tuesday into early Wednesday. If this does occur, very heavy precipitation will fall over all of central California with a massive snow pack along the Sierra Nevada and the snow level possibly rising to as high as 9,000 feet. You can imagine the runoff that may occur!
As the colder sector of this storm arrives Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, periods of showers will continue. Most of the precipitation will be confined to the Sierra Nevada Friday, though I can’t completely rule out a few showers on the valley floor.
Over the weekend, we should see a few days of dry weather though there is some indication of a weak, colder trough moving through Saturday. For now, though, it looks like all the precip will be over the Sierra Nevada.
If models are correct, a ridge of high pressure will take over Sunday through Tuesday. There does now seem to be a trend developing on models that would result in a large trough of low pressure stretching from the Gulf of Alaska southward out over the eastern Pacific and into the west coast. This could open the door to cold storms moving out of the Gulf for lower elevation rain with snow in the mountains and much lower snow levels.
Forecast: Showers today with a chance of thunderstorms. Showers will become more scattered tonight. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. rain becoming likely after midnight Monday. Rain Tuesday through Wednesday, possibly heavy at times. Showers Wednesday night through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday with a slight chance of showers. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/52/64/52/63 | Reedley 65/53/64/48/63 | Dinuba 63/51/63/48/62 | |
| Porterville 66/52/65/48/63 | Lindsay 66/51/64/47/64 | Delano 67/53/65/48/63 | |
| Bakersfield 68/54/66/50/63 | Taft 69/54/66/51/62 | Arvin 68/53/67/49/62 | |
| Lamont 69/53/66/49/63 | Pixley 67/53/64/48/63 | Tulare 64/51/64/47/62 | |
| Woodlake 65/52/64/47/63 | Hanford 66/53/64/47/63 | Orosi 64/52/64/48/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Heavy rain 52/63 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 49/61 |
Thursday
Showers likely 49/64 |
Friday
Slight chance of showers 41/60 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 40/61 |
Two Week Outlook: March 8 through March 14: The storm door will remain open during this time frame, but a fundamental change does occur. Potential storm systems will originate in the Gulf of Alaska, meaning temperatures will likely be below average with lower snow levels along the Sierra Nevada.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 MPH today with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds tonight through Sunday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Sunday night through Monday will be generally variable and at or less than 12 MPH. winds Monday night and Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH along the west side.
Rain: Significant rain occurred overnight. The following are 24 hour totals, ending at 5:00am today. Bakersfield .59, Buttonwillow .44, Lamont .58, Taft .47, Delano .43, Porterville .47, Tulare .34, Visalia .42, Hanford .43, Kettleman Hills .24, Del Rey .36, Fresno .36, and Madera .26.
The cold frontal portion of this storm has n ow moved off to the east. We will now deal with the very unstable air associated with the parent low. Showers will continue through tonight. Thunderstorms are possible from late morning through early evening. Showers will become more widely scattered tonight with dry weather Sunday through Monday. Additional rainfall amounts from the current storm will vary widely, generally ranging from .10 to possibly .50 in thunderstorms.
The next system will be considerably wetter. An atmospheric river of air is aimed right at central California on most models with Kern County right in the bulls eye. The chance of rain will rapidly increase after midnight Monday night with rain, heavy at times, Tuesday through at least Wednesday morning. One to two inches is possible along the valley floor from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. showers will continue Thursday with a slight chance of showers Friday and Saturday. Dry weather will set up Sunday, lasting through Tuesday of the following week.
A new pattern will begin as medium range models are opening the door to the Gulf of Alaska for the possibility of colder storms beginning roughly a week from this coming Wednesday.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/95%
Actual Humidity March 1, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/75%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .58, Parlier .63, Blackwell .57, Lindcove .60, Arvin 65, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .61, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 57, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 57, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 82/26. Average Temperatures: 65/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1749 -418
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 53.5 +.05
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.82 season. or +.06. Month to Date: T -.07
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.89, or -.51. Month to Date: .01 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:27 am Sunset: 5:55 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:26
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 46 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 47 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 44 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 50 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 47 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 60 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 45 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 60 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 12.77 126 5.47 54 10.10 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 9.32 102 4.26 47 9.15 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 111 3.41 40 8.57 12.50
MADERA T 7.57 90 2.70 32 8.42 12.02
FRESNO T 7.82 101 2.40 31 7.76 11.50
HANFORD T 6.19 89 2.10 30 6.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 3.89 88 1.32 30 4.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 159 0.20 6 3.54 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 10.49 115 3.29 36 9.09 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 11.69 128 3.75 41 9.10 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 11.16 113 2.25 23 9.89 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/March 2