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Forecast

March 3, 2019/report

March 3, 2019

Summary: There is a minimal chance of widely scattered showers north of Kern County today as a weak impulse moves into northern California.  A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will move in today, remaining through the day Monday for a temporary respite from the barrage of storms we’ve experienced this winter.  Later Monday night, especially after midnight, the chance of rain will increase again with rain becoming heavy at times Tuesday through at least Wednesday morning.  A rapidly developing low pressure system well out over the Pacific will be off the northern California coast by Wednesday morning.

 

Models have been amazingly consistent on the development of a well developed atmospheric river of air moving from southwest to northeast right into central California from about midday Tuesday through at least early afternoon Wednesday.  This morning’s models generally indicate this juicy flow of subtropical air will be from just south of Monterey to the north of us to Santa Barbara County on the south.  That puts much of the valley, and especially the south valley, in the weather bulls eye for heavy amounts of rain.

 

Five inch plus totals are possible in the southern Sierra Nevada from Monday night through Wednesday night with between one and two inches on the valley floor.  Yes, rain shadows will become a problem with forecasting precip amounts, but that estimate is from high resolution  models which do a decent job, usually.

 

Once we get into Thursday and Friday, another weak wave will move through Thursday for a good chance of showers.  A low will move through southern California Friday.  How far north precipitation progresses is quite speculative at this time.  For now, it would appear most of the showers will be from the Kern County mountains south.

 

Models begin to diverge somewhat for next weekend and the following week.  For the past couple of days models have indicated a cooler pattern for the second half of the weekend, and that may yet occur.  But other models are switching back to a milder, westerly flow.  In any case, there will be a chance of rain, especially from the middle of next week and beyond.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy through Monday.  There will be a chance of widely scattered showers, mainly this morning.  Increasing cloudiness  Monday night with a chance of showers before midnight.  Rain becoming likely after midnight.  Rain Tuesday through Wednesday, possibly heavy at times.  Showers Wednesday night and Thursday.  A chance of showers Friday, mainly in Kern County.  Partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/46/61/50/62 Reedley 65/47/62/51/61 Dinuba 63/46/61/49/61
Porterville 65/47/62/50/62 Lindsay 65/46/62/49/63 Delano 66/49/62/51/63
Bakersfield 67/53/63/53/64 Taft 66/54/63/53/64 Arvin 67/49/63/52/65
Lamont 66/50/63/53/63 Pixley 65/48/63/51/61 Tulare 64/47/61/50/61
Woodlake 64/48/61/51/61 Hanford 65/47/61/51/62 Orosi 64/47/62/50/61

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Heavy rain

55/63

Thursday

Showers likely

49/62

Friday

Small chance of showers

44/61

Saturday

Partly cloudy

41/61

Sunday

Partly cloudy

43/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 8 through March 14:  The storm door will remain open during this time frame, but a fundamental change does occur.  Potential storm systems will originate in the Gulf of Alaska, meaning temperatures will likely be below average with lower snow levels along the Sierra Nevada.

 

March:  February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting.  The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions.  Can you say “Ooops”?  anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).

 

February, March, April:  At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds will be out of the northwest today at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side.  Later tonight through Monday, winds will generally be in the 5 to 12 MPH range with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds late Monday night through Wednesday will be generally out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH possible.

 

Rain: There is a small chance of widely scattered light showers today, mainly this morning, but most locations will remain dry.  Dry weather will prevail tonight through Monday evening.  The chance for rain will pick up after midnight Monday night, becoming likely by dawn.  Tuesday through Wednesday, expect widespread rain, heavy at times, as we’ll find ourselves under an atmospheric river of air.  Another weak system will give lighter showers Thursday through Thursday night.  yet another low will move into California Friday, but latest models indicate most of the energy moving inland through southern California will  just  miss the valley.

 

Rainfall amounts from late Monday night through Wednesday night on the valley floor could be in the 1 to 2 inch range.  Normally, lighter amounts would occur in Kern County, but considering Kern County will be the bulls eye for the AR, I’ll go out on a limb and call for more than an inch in the valley portion of Kern County.  In the Sierra Nevada, 5 inch plus amounts are expected with 3 to 5 inches in the foothills.

 

Models are in a state of war for a pattern for the coming weekend and the following week.  For now, it appears there’s a better than even chance for dry weather from Saturday through Tuesday with possibly more precipitation arriving by the end of  next week.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 60%/95%

Actual Humidity March 2, 2019: Delano, NA  Porterville, 97%/59%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 60%  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .58, Parlier .63, Blackwell .57, Lindcove .55, Arvin 62, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .60, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 57, Delano NA

 

Record Temperatures: 80/26. Average Temperatures: 65/42

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1753 -425

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for March so far: 57.0 +3.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 8.55 season. or +.72. Month to Date: .73 +.59

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  4.47, or +.02.  Month to Date: .59 +.50

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878,  Parlier, 845 ,  Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848  Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:26 am  Sunset: 5:56 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:28

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  70 /  62 / 0.49 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  67 /  61 / 0.47 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  69 /  53 / 0.36 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1500 /   M /  52 / 0.07 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  71 /  66 / 0.58 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  68 /  52 / 0.40 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1557 /  66 /  51 / 0.37 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  68 /  51 / 0.46 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1556 /  70 /  51 / 0.47 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.73   13.50   133    5.51    54    10.18    14.06

MODESTO                       0.83   10.15   110    4.34    47     9.24    13.11

MERCED                        0.28    9.82   113    3.69    43     8.66    12.50

MADERA                        0.49    8.06    95    3.11    37     8.51    12.02

FRESNO                        0.47    8.29   106    2.90    37     7.83    11.50

HANFORD                       0.36    6.55    93    2.44    35     7.07    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.58    4.47   100    1.47    33     4.45     6.47

BISHOP                        0.31    5.94   166    0.20     6     3.57     5.18

SALINAS                       0.05   10.62   116    3.46    38     9.17    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.49   12.34   134    3.93    43     9.20    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.67   12.08   121    2.43    24     9.99    13.95

 

 

Next report:  Monday morning/March 4