March 5, 2019
Summary: Precipitation, mostly light, has spread over the northern half of California. Satellite imagery clearly indicates the atmospheric river of air is still off shore and will not really begin its magic until the late morning and early afternoon hours. High resolution models are indicating the southern San Joaquin Valley, mainly southern Tulare County and Kern County, will not begin to pick up precipitation in earnest until the afternoon hours. The overnight hours through around midmorning Wednesday will be the opportune time for heavy precipitation. Rain will be pretty solid during this time frame with possibly even embedded thunderstorms as the AR moves through from roughly San Simeon on the north to Santa Barbara on the south.
Models are still, even at this late hour, indicating the possibility of 1 to 2 inches of rain on the valley floor and possibly more than 2 inches right along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada with possibly 5 plus inches over the higher elevations of the southern Sierras.
The main low will move through late Wednesday morning through Wednesday night with numerous showers. The highest risk of thunderstorms with heavy ran and small hail will be Wednesday afternoon and evening. There may be a short lived lull Thursday but a new low will move through Thursday night through Friday evening. This system will not have a pineapple connection, so rainfall amounts will be considerably lighter with much lower snow levels.
The pattern for early next week is still not nailed down as there are many model differences. It appears, though, that a cold low will move out of the Gulf of Alaska, tracking southward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and eventually northern and central California. If there’s any trend on models at all it is that this system in its much weaker state will move through southern California Sunday night and Monday. The chance of rain for central California will be determined by how close this storm is to the shore as it moves south. If it’s too close, precipitation will not occur.
One thing models are agreeing on more and more is dry weather beginning Tuesday and continuing for the remainder of the week for generally below average temperatures. By next weekend and into the following week, a large ridge will be over the west coast, creating a north/northwest flow aloft and resulting in sub average temperatures.
Forecast: A chance of showers, mainly north of Kern County, through mid morning. Rain likely from late morning through the afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms. Rain tonight and Wednesday morning, heavy at times, with a chance of thunderstorms. Showers Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with a chance of thunderstorms. The greatest risk of thunderstorms will be from late Wednesday morning through the early evening hours. Showers tapering off late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Showers becoming likely again Thursday afternoon through Friday evening, tapering off Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday morning. Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon leading to a chance of showers. A small chance of showers Sunday night through early Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night and early Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/54/65/51/62 | Reedley 61/53/65/51/63 | Dinuba 59/53/64/50/62 | |
| Porterville 65/55/65/51/63 | Lindsay 64/55/66/51/62 | Delano 65/55/65/51/61 | |
| Bakersfield 68/57/70/55/64 | Taft 68/56/69/56/62 | Arvin 68/57/70/55/63 | |
| Lamont 67/56/69/54/63 | Pixley 64/54/65/51/62 | Tulare 61/54/64/51/61 | |
| Woodlake 62/54/65/51/62 | Hanford 62/55/65/51/63 | Orosi 61/54/64/50/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Showers likely 43/55 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 36/59 |
Sunday
PM showers 48/61 |
Monday
Chance of showers 41/61 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 41/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 12 through March 18: For the first time in weeks, this model is indicating a pattern favoring dry weather. The general flow pattern as we move through the middle of the month will be out of the northwest, maintaining at least marginally below average temperatures.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: The difference in pressure between the coast and the incoming intense low pressure system will increase later this afternoon through Wednesday morning. Especially tonight and Wednesday morning, winds will be mostly out of the southeast at 15 to 30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH possible along the west side. In Kern County, local gusts in excess of 50 MPH are possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. After the front goes through sometime Wednesday morning, winds will decrease but will still range between 10 and 20 MPH with stronger gusts, especially near the base of thunderstorms. Winds Thursday and Friday will generally be out of the east/southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly near showers.
Rain: It is currently raining over much of northern California and parts of central California. Orographic lift is definitely evident as heavier precipitation is falling along the southern Sierra Nevada. The main atmospheric river of air will not arrive until late morning with the juiciest portion of this AR moving in tonight and Wednesday morning when possibly heavy amounts of rain will fall from time to time. Some embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The rain will turn to showers Wednesday afternoon and night. models are advertising the strong possibility of thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially during the afternoon and evening. Showers will taper off late Wednesday night with a brief dry period Thursday. I still believe it’s possible that many locations will pick up more than one inch of precipitation, especially east of Hwy 99. Generally speaking, the closer you get to the foothills, the higher the rainfall totals will be. Kern County will be fighting the usual rain shadow, but if high resolution models have anything to say about it, an inch of rain cannot be ruled out. Another low will move on shore Thursday night through Friday evening. This system will have no pineapple connection and rainfall amounts will be much lighter. We’ll finally have some dry weather later Friday night through possibly Sunday morning and possibly beyond. There will be a cold low sliding southward off shore for a chance of light showers, however it may remain too far off shore to be much of a threat. After Monday, models are painting a dry picture lasting through next weekend and possibly into the following week.
Frost Discussion: The storm moving through Friday has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska. Mid to upper 30s will be possible Saturday and Sunday mornings with a chance of lower 30s in the coldest locations, but as of now, it does not appear to be a significant frost threat. Temperatures for next week look to be below average, but not enough for a significant bout of subfreezing weather. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/95%
Actual Humidity March 4, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/67%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .59, Parlier .57, Blackwell .48, Lindcove .43, Arvin 56, Orange Cove .46, Porterville .47, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 58, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 84/31. Average Temperatures: 66/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1767 -433
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 57.4 +3.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.55 season. or +.57. Month to Date: .73 +.44
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 4.48, or -.05. Month to Date: .60 +.43
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:23 am Sunset: 5:58 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:32
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 53 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 53 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1500 / 61 / 51 / M /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 60 / 52 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 49 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 59 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 61 / 47 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 58 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 62 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 13.81 133 5.60 54 10.35 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.35 110 4.45 47 9.40 13.11
MERCED 0.00 10.24 116 3.82 43 8.83 12.50
MADERA T 8.17 94 3.29 38 8.70 12.02
FRESNO T 8.55 107 3.22 40 7.98 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.55 91 2.52 35 7.23 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 4.48 99 1.57 35 4.53 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.99 166 0.20 6 3.61 5.18
SALINAS T 10.72 115 3.56 38 9.34 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.41 132 4.09 44 9.40 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 12.14 119 2.53 25 10.20 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/March 5