March 6, 2019
Summary: Sunshine reaching the ground has destabilized the atmosphere this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are the result as warm currents of air rise off the valley floor and interact with colder air moving in aloft. Most of these storms, so far, are small but are putting down brief heavy rain and hail. Movement of most cells is to the north/northeast between 25 and 30 MPH. these storms will roam the valley until the sun goes down when the destabilization process of daytime heating comes to an abrupt halt. Showers will end altogether later this evening with dry weather later tonight through Thursday morning. The exception will be over the Sierra Nevada where orographic lift will keep the action going.
Snow levels, which had been as high as 9,000 feet, have lowered to 6,000 and will come all the way down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet late Thursday through Friday. Two more low pressure systems have yet to move in. showers will increase ahead of the next one Thursday afternoon and Thursday night with a weaker system Friday. Rainfall amounts from these systems will be quite light.
Dry weather will return later Friday evening, lasting through Saturday night then a new low will drop southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and be positioned parallel to the coast. It will eventually move inland through extreme southern California and northern Baja late Monday and Monday night. the only chance of measurable rain for the valley will be when this low moves southward off the northern and central coast late Saturday night into Monday. I would put the chance of measurable at no more than 30% with the greatest risk of precipitation being along the west side.
Models are now showing another fairly weak low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California about Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week for yet another shot at light showers. Later next week through the following weekend still appears to be a dry slot. The new two week model also shows a limited chance of rain with temperatures finally rising above average.
Forecast: Scattered showers this evening with a chance of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail. Mostly to partly cloudy later tonight into Thursday morning. Light showers will again spread in from the west Thursday afternoon, continuing on and off through Friday evening. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night. becoming partly cloudy Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a chance of showers after midnight. A chance of showers Sunday through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night then another chance of showers Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/61/42/56 | Reedley 46/60/42/56 | Dinuba 45/61/41/55 | |
| Porterville 47/62/43/57 | Lindsay 45/61/42/57 | Delano 48/62/44/56 | |
| Bakersfield 49/63/47/56 | Taft 51/62/46/55 | Arvin 48/63/47/56 | |
| Lamont 48/63/46/55 | Pixley 45/61/43/56 | Tulare 45/60/42/56 | |
| Woodlake 47/61/42/55 | Hanford 47/61/43/56 | Orosi 46/60/42/55 | |
Winds: Gusty winds are occurring in many areas of the valley this afternoon. Just within this last hour, Merced has reported gusts to 40 MPH, Madera 32 MPH, and Fresno 37 MPH. after sunset, winds will decrease to around 10 to 15 MPH. Winds Thursday through Friday will generally be in the 10 to 15 MPH range with gusts to 25, especially in the vicinity of showers. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH.
Rain: Isolated thunderstorms are roaming the valley at this hour. Most of the action is north of Kern County and generally away from the west side. These storms are moving towards the northeast at between 20 and 30 MPH, depending on which cell is observed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through early evening then will come to an end later this evening. Rainfall amounts will range from nothing to as much as .50 in locations raided by a decent size storm.
The weather will actually temporarily dry up tonight through most of the morning Thursday with showers increasing from the west Thursday afternoon and light showers likely Thursday night through Friday evening. Rainfall Thursday through Friday will be generally less than .25 with amounts of .10 or less in Kern County.
Dry weather will return Friday night through Saturday. Our next chance of showers will be later Saturday night through Monday as a cold weather system moves southward off shore. The best chance of measurable rain from this event will be along the west side closer to the center of circulation.
Models are also indicating the chance of yet another low sliding southward off the British Columbia coast and into California Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week. This system, if it develops at all, would have low snow levels but rainfall amounts in the valley will likely be light.
Thursday and beyond look dry through next weekend and through the following week. The new two week outlook for the 14th through the 20th indicates a fairly strong ridge through the western U.S. with little chance of rain and above average temperatures.
Frost Discussion: A weak but cold weather system will move through central California Friday and Friday evening. The air behind it is cold, but nothing unusual for early March. Mid 30s to lower 40s are likely Saturday morning and there is a small chance of the typical low pockets out there chilling into the lower 30s for an hour or two. However, no significant frost is expected. Otherwise, above freezing temperatures will continue for the next week and possibly longer.
Next report: Thursday morning/March 7