March 6, 2019
Summary: I will give you a hint of exactly where the atmospheric river of air set up overnight. Bakersfield’s Meadows Field recorded 1.27 inches of rain over roughly about the past 15 hours, which is right around 25% of Bakersfield’s entire annual precipitation total. Kern County and southeastern Tulare County were right in the heart of this flow. More rainfall amounts are given in the rainfall discussion below.
You get up into Fresno County, and less than .25 of an inch was recorded. Anywhere from 2.50 to 5.00 inches fell over the Tulare County portion of the Sierra Nevada.
The atmospheric river is now being slowly nudged to our south and east and is coming on shore through the Los Angeles Basin. Heavy amounts of rain are occurring there then there’s a swath northeastward into southern Nevada. The front will be moving through later this morning accompanied by numerous showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon when the daytime heating process gets revved up. Where these storms do percolate, very small hail and heavy rain are givens. A funnel cloud or two cannot be ruled out.
Cooler air is in the process of overspreading central California, but will be more pronounced Thursday and Friday when two weather systems with origins in the Gulf of Alaska move through. The first will arrive Thursday afternoon and night and the second Friday. Snow levels had been at about 9,000 feet but have lowered to around 6,000 feet. By Friday it’ll level off to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will move in later Friday evening through early Sunday for dry weather. It’s still questionable whether we will receive showers late Sunday through Monday from a low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and eventually running parallel to the California coast as it moves southward and down into Baja and extreme southern California late Sunday into Tuesday. If this storm is close enough to the coast as it heads south, the chance of showers will be relatively high. If it’s too far off shore, we will simply remain dry.
From late Tuesday and beyond, upper level high pressure will take over for what may turn out to be an extended period of dry weather. The flow aloft later next week will be out of the north/northwest, resulting in below average temperatures.
Forecast: Showers through this evening with a chance of heavy thunderstorms with small hail. Showers for a time tonight, tapering off after midnight. Mostly cloudy Thursday morning. Showers becoming likely at times Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday morning. Increasing cloudiness later Sunday, leading to a chance of showers Sunday afternoon through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/48/61/43/57 | Reedley 63/49/61/43/56 | Dinuba 60/47/60/42/56 | |
| Porterville 64/47/62/44/56 | Lindsay 64/47/62/43/57 | Delano 64/49/62/45/57 | |
| Bakersfield 67/51/63/46/57 | Taft 68/52/62/48/56 | Arvin 68/50/63/46/57 | |
| Lamont 68/51/62/46/56 | Pixley 64/47/61/44/57 | Tulare 62/46/61/43/56 | |
| Woodlake 62/47/61/43/57 | Hanford 62/47/1/43/56 | Orosi 63/46/60/42/56 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 38/63 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 41/60 |
Monday
Chance of showers 43/63 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 43/63 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 40/62 |
Two Week Outlook: March 12 through March 18: For the first time in weeks, this model is indicating a pattern favoring dry weather. The general flow pattern as we move through the middle of the month will be out of the northwest, maintaining at least marginally below average temperatures.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 35 MPH along the west side. Winds tonight through Friday will be generally out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly in the vicinity of showers. Winds Friday night through Saturday will be generally out of the west at about 15 MPH.
Rain: Our atmospheric river of air certainly lived up to expectations over Kern County northeastward through Tulare County. Rainfall amounts as of 6:00am from the past 24hours are: Bakersfield 1.27, Taft .76, Mettler .62, Delano 1.34, Porterville 1.38, Tulare.95, Visalia .75, Hanford .51, Kettleman 1.15, Fresno .18, Madera .14.
From this point on, the rain pattern will be showery. Once the daytime heating effect gets rolling, destabilizing a cooler air mass moving in overhead, showers will form along with potential thunderstorms from the late morning through the evening hours. Rainfall amounts from these storms would be impressive, though brief. The showers will taper off later this evening for a brief dry period after midnight tonight and well into Thursday morning. Showers will spread in from the west Thursday afternoon and continue on and off through Friday evening. Rainfall amounts from today through tonight will generally be less than .50, however locally heavier amounts are possible when and if thunderstorms occur.
Dry weather will prevail later Friday night through Saturday evening. There’s roughly a 30% chance of showers late Saturday night through Monday. It just depends upon how far off shore a low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska moves southward to our west.
Beginning Tuesday and for the remainder of next week, look for dry conditions. The new two week model continues that trend.
Frost Discussion: It’s possible that Saturday morning may see lows in the mid to upper 30s in some areas with a small chance of a riverbottom or two out there dipping into the lower 30s, but no significant frost is expected. From Sunday on, conditions will remain above freezing. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/90%
Actual Humidity March 5, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 95%/67%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .44, Parlier .50, Blackwell .40, Lindcove .37, Arvin 48, Orange Cove .39, Porterville .41, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 86/31. Average Temperatures: 66/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1778 -437
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 56.7 +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.69 season. or +.64. Month to Date: .87 +.51
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.53, or +.76. Month to Date: 1.45 +1.24
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:21 am Sunset: 5:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 52 / 0.11 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 53 / 0.13 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 50 / 0.10 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / 0.08 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 60 / 50 / 0.17 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 55 / 50 / 0.07 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 56 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 59 / 48 / 0.14 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 64 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 51 / 0.16 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.04 13.85 133 5.60 54 10.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.04 10.39 110 4.45 47 9.47 13.11
MERCED 0.17 10.41 117 3.82 43 8.91 12.50
MADERA 0.08 8.25 94 3.29 37 8.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.13 8.68 108 3.22 40 8.05 11.50
HANFORD 0.10 6.65 91 2.52 35 7.30 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.16 4.64 102 1.57 34 4.57 6.47
BISHOP 0.35 6.34 175 0.20 6 3.63 5.18
SALINAS 0.07 10.79 115 3.56 38 9.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.20 12.61 133 4.09 43 9.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.45 12.59 122 2.53 25 10.30 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/March 6