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Forecast

March 7, 2019/pm report

March 7, 2019

Summary:  The latest low pressure system is a few hundred miles off the central coast this afternoon and is moving eastward.  Showers have spread over the coastal mountains and into the western San Joaquin Valley from Merced southward into northwestern Kern County.  Showers will slowly spread across the valley this evening.  The latest high resolution short term models are indicating there’s at least a small chance of isolated thunderstorms before sunset.  Showers are also developing over the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County north.  The air mass is relatively cold aloft even ahead of this latest disturbance.  The freezing level this morning over Oakland was 5,100 feet and 5,500 feet above Vandenberg.  Snow levels by tomorrow morning will dip to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet.

 

Slow improvement in our weather is now anticipated as later tomorrow afternoon.  A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will take over Friday night and Saturday for a short respite from the barrage of precipitation we’ve received in recent weeks.  The next Pacific storm will roll out of Gulf of Alaska then move southeastward and form an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from northeast to southwest.  Showers will become likely late Saturday night through about Monday morning.  The trough will then move into southern California, eventually moving across northern Baja and Sonora, Mexico Tuesday.

 

There is yet another system due to impact central California Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Models show this system forming in the Gulf of Alaska and moving into California at midweek.  It’s questionable at this time whether or not this cold feature will have enough moisture for showers over the valley floor, but at the very least it will keep temperatures well below average through Thursday.

 

From Thursday on, dry weather with a warming trend can be expected as a more significant ridge of upper level high pressure moves in from the west and eventually northward into western Canada by the weekend.

 

Forecast:  Periods of light showers tonight and Friday morning.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon.  Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday.  Increasing cloudiness Saturday night.  light showers likely Sunday through Monday morning.  Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon and night.  variable cloudiness Tuesday through Wednesday with a slight chance of showers.  Partly cloudy Wednesday night.  mostly clear Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 44/57/34/57 Reedley 45/56/35/57 Dinuba 42/56/33/56
Porterville 44/57/34/57 Lindsay 43/56/33/57 Delano 45/57/36/57
Bakersfield 45/58/39/58 Taft 45/57/40/58 Arvin 44/57/38/58
Lamont 45/57/38/57 Pixley 43/56/35/58 Tulare 43/56/33/57
Woodlake 44/57/34/58 Hanford 44/57/35/57 Orosi 43/56/33/57

 

Winds: Winds will be generally variable to around 12 MPH through Friday with stronger gusts possible in the vicinity of showers.  Winds Friday night through Saturday will be generally variable and at or less than 12 MPH.  Winds saturdsy night and Sunday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  Showers have already spread into the west side of the valley from northwest Kern County through to Merced County.  Showers will continue to spread across the valley this evening and continue on and off through Friday morning.  Latest  models are indicating there is a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms over the next few  hours.  rainfall amounts with this event will generally be at or less than .25.  It’s possible that if isolated heavier showers or thunderstorms develop that considerably more could fall.  Small hail would be a given with thunderstorms.  Dry weather will return possibly as early as Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday night.  the chance of light rain will again increase Sunday and continue on and off through at least midday Monday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms.  There is one more low pressure system showing up out there which will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday.  However, if you go by this afternoon’s models, the chance of rain appears to be minimal with the exception of over the Sierra Nevada.  For now, after Wednesday all systems seem to be go for the beginning of a prolonged period of dry weather which will continue through the following weekend and possibly even through the next week.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight.  Mid 30s to lower 40s will be widespread Saturday morning in the relatively cold air mass following the storm now moving through.  Where ideal situations set up…clear skies and no wind…low 30s cannot be ruled out, but no significant frost event is expected.  From Sunday through Tuesday, all locations will be above 32.  Wednesday through Thursday of next week will again see the possibility of mid to upper 30s with lower 30s not out of the question.  For now, no significant freeze of frost episode appears to be likely.

 

Next report: Friday morning/March 8