March 9, 2019
Summary: Skies are mostly clear this morning. There are some lingering upslope clouds in Kern County. Clouds are increasing now over northern California ahead of a low pressure system about 300 miles to the west of Eureka. The southern limit of the cloud shield is down to Monterey along the coast and Modesto inland. Clouds will begin to increase as the day wears on, leading to a chance of light showers by late afternoon. Some of the latest models this morning are indicating the low will track southward a little farther west, reducing the chance of showers. And where showers do occur, amounts will be fairly miniscule.
The greatest risk of light showers will be tonight and during the day Sunday as the low tracks southward off the California coast. By Sunday night, the low will be off the southern California coast then will eventually move inland through northwest Mexico, spreading showers over parts of southern California.
Later Sunday night through Monday night will be dry as a weak ridge builds inland then we just have to look to the north to find the next, hopefully last, low pressure system. Currently this feature is off the northern British Columbia coast and will track southward along the coast before taking a southeastern jog into northern California late Monday night. it will head into central California Tuesday and Tuesday night. this storm will be somewhat of an inside slider as the main dynamics slide into extreme western Nevada. Even so. The chance of light showers will be fairly high Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Wednesday, though will be the transition day between two months of significant weather events and a dry pattern. Upper level high pressure will expand northward and eastward, blocking any further Pacific storms from moving into central California through what looks to be the next couple of weeks. Temperatures this coming weekend should begin to rise into the low to mid 70s, if not Saturday then Sunday.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon with a chance of light showers by evening. A chance of scattered light showers tonight and Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Showers likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/41/59/39/62 | Reedley 58/42/59/40/62 | Dinuba 58/40/58/39/61 | |
| Porterville 59/40/60/39/62 | Lindsay 58/39/59/40/61 | Delano 59/42/59/41/63 | |
| Bakersfield 60/45/60/44/61 | Taft 60/45/60/44/62 | Arvin 59/42/60/43/61 | |
| Lamont 60/43/60/43/62 | Pixley 59/41/59/40/61 | Tulare 57/40/59/39/61 | |
| Woodlake 58/42/59/42/62 | Hanford 60/42/59/40/63 | Orosi 58/39/59/39/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Showers likely 41/63 |
Wednesday
AM showers 40/59 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 37/63 |
Friday
Mostly clear 42/66 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 44/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 15 through March 21: For the first time in weeks, this model is indicating a pattern favoring dry weather. The general flow pattern as we move through the middle of the month will be out of the northwest, maintaining at least marginally below average temperatures.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions during the overnight hours. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will increase to 10 to 15 MPH out of the southeast, becoming out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH Tuesday afternoon.
Rain: This next system will arrive tonight and Sunday and still presents itself as moisture starved. Not only that, models show this system heading southward along the central coast but further off shore than first thought. That will reduce the chance of precipitation and where rain does occur, less than .10 can be anticipated. The chance of light showers will continue through late Sunday afternoon then dry weather can be expected Sunday night through Monday night. the chance of showers for the next and last in this series will arrive Tuesday. The chance of at least light showers is greater with this storm, even though the main dynamics will move into western Nevada. The chance of showers will continue into early Thursday then the long awaited dry spell will begin Wednesday and continue for the remainder of the week as well as the following week. Even the two week model is indicating a high chance of dry weather with above average temperatures for a change.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees indefinitely.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/90%
Actual Humidity March 8, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 96%/45%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .48, Parlier .56, Blackwell .50, Lindcove .32, Arvin 61, Orange Cove .38, Porterville .45, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 58, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 86/32. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1812 -432
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 55.5 +1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.77 season. or +.51. Month to Date: .95 +.38
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +1.10. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.58
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:17 am Sunset: 7:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.15 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 44 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 43 / 0.11 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 42 / 0.10 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 58 / 45 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 58 / 50 / 0.22 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 57 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 42 / 0.92 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 54 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 13.99 131 5.60 53 10.65 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.66 110 4.45 46 9.70 13.11
MERCED 0.01 10.91 119 3.82 42 9.15 12.50
MADERA 0.02 8.42 93 3.29 37 9.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 8.77 106 3.22 39 8.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.07 7.20 96 2.52 34 7.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 5.80 123 1.57 33 4.70 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 200 0.20 5 3.70 5.18
SALINAS 0.04 11.03 114 3.56 37 9.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 13.12 134 4.09 42 9.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.03 13.56 128 2.53 24 10.60 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/March 9