March 10, 2019
Summary: Light showers occurred over the valley last night north of Kern County. Most locations recorded roughly .10 or less with the exception of Madera which tallied up .25. the center of circulation of our latest low pressure system is just northwest of the Golden Gate this morning and is tracking south/southeast parallel to the coast line. Our best chance at additional showers will be this afternoon and evening as the low begins to pass to our west. Daytime heating will destabilize the atmosphere to create scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm could occur somewhere out in the boonies.
The chance of showers will be reduced by tonight, especially after midnight, as the low moves further south. The best chance of rain tonight will be over Kern County. Monday and Monday night will be dry and it’s looking more and more likely that Tuesday into Wednesday may also be dry as each set of modeling projections is showing the next system moving in further east into Nevada rather than California. There will be a reasonably good chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada Tuesday and Tuesday night but we’ll just add a slight chance of showers to the forecast over the valley floor.
The air mass behind the Tuesday system is cold and will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday and Thursday mornings with a slight chance of lower 30s in isolated low pockets. No significant frost is expected, though.
For Wednesday night and beyond, upper level high pressure will slowly build northward and eastward into the north American continent. This will begin a prolonged period of dry weather which will last at least through the rest of the week and next week, as well. Average temperatures for this time of year are moving into the upper 60s and it now appears we will top the 70 degree mark in at least the warmer locations this coming weekend with above average temperatures the following week, as well.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today and tonight. Scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening with a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two. A chance of showers tonight, mainly in Kern County. Becoming partly cloudy Monday and Monday night. variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night with a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Sunday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/40/62/38/62 | Reedley 59/41/61/39/61 | Dinuba 58/40/61/38/61 | |
| Porterville 59/40/62/39/63 | Lindsay 59/41/62/38/63 | Delano 60/41/62/41/64 | |
| Bakersfield 60/44/63/45/65 | Taft 60/44/63/45/65 | Arvin 58/42/63/43/65 | |
| Lamont 59/43/63/42/66 | Pixley 59/41/61/39/63 | Tulare 58/39/61/39/62 | |
| Woodlake 58/40/62/38/62 | Hanford 59/40/61/41/63 | Orosi 58/39/61/38/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Partly cloudy 37/61 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Friday
Mostly clear 40/68 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 43/70 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 44/73 |
Two Week Outlook: March 17 through March 23: This model is indicating at least a minimal chance of showers exists. The overall pattern, however, still maintains high pressure over the western states so temperatures should be somewhat above seasonal averages.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 MPH today and tonight and generally less than 12 MPH Monday through Tuesday. Winds Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH possible along the west side.
Rain: The following are 24 hour rain totals ending at 7:00am. Fresno .11, Madera .24, Del Rey .06, Visalia .08, Tulare .06, Porterville .01. All the Kern County locations reported no measurable rain.
The best chance of scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two will be this afternoon through the early evening hours, ending in most areas by midnight. Showers could still occur over Kern County after midnight with dry weather Monday and Monday night.
Rainfall amounts from this point on will range from nothing to around .15 . If a thunderstorm or two does happen to percolate into the atmosphere, greater amounts would occur along with small hail.
Dry weather will be with us again Monday through Monday night. the chance for showers Tuesday and Tuesday night now appears pretty low. The next storm will race southeastward with the bulk of its energy moving into Nevada instead of California. The Sierra Nevada will benefit from light snow showers and we’ll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for the valley floor, but most locations should remain dry.
Speaking of dry, it will be so from Wednesday through the remainder of the week and in all likelihood, next week will be dry, as well.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue through Tuesday morning and more than likely well beyond. A relatively cold air mass will follow an inside slider moving into Nevada Tuesday and Tuesday night. it’s possible lows could chill into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday and Thursday mornings with a small chance of lower 30s in isolated river bottom and other similar terrain. No real frost or freeze is expected, however. Significant warming will occur later in the week so no subfreezing weather is expected after Thursday for at least the following 7 to 10 days.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/70%
Actual Humidity March 9, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/49%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .57, Blackwell .50, Lindcove .38, Arvin 65, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .47, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 82/31. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1826 -425
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.6 +0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.89 season. or +.56. Month to Date: 1.07 +.43
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +1.06. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.54
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:16 am Sunset: 7:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 52 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 57 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 58 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.01 14.00 130 5.60 52 10.73 14.06
MODESTO T 10.66 109 4.45 46 9.77 13.11
MERCED 0.00 10.91 118 3.82 41 9.24 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.42 93 3.29 36 9.08 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.77 105 3.22 39 8.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.20 95 2.52 33 7.57 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 122 1.57 33 4.74 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 199 0.20 5 3.72 5.18
SALINAS 0.04 11.07 114 3.56 37 9.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 13.14 133 4.09 41 9.87 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 127 2.53 24 10.69 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/March 11