March 11, 2019
Summary: The center of circulation of a weak upper low is now west of San Diego. There is considerable cloud cover being injected along the eastern flank of the low and into southern California. The northern limit of the cloud shield is over the Kern County mountains and Doppler radar is indicating mostly just sprinkles from the Kern/Los Angeles County line southward. Later tonight and early Tuesday, the low will make its move into northern Baja then the system will jet quickly eastward through the Desert Southwest. It will then dump out into Midwest Wednesday morning.
Before that occurs, however, a fast moving weather system now headed into the Pacific Northwest will dive into western Nevada as an inside slider, eventually joining forces with the southwestern storm. Models this afternoon still indicate the dynamics of this system will be just a bit too far to the east to threaten showers over the valley. There will be, though, a good chance of light showers over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. Snow levels, which had been rising today, will drop once again Tuesday and Tuesday night as a colder air mass once again penetrates the western U.S.
Beginning Wednesday, upper level high pressure will build northward and eastward along the west coast for the beginning of a prolonged period of dry weather. New on this afternoon’s models is a weak upper air disturbance embedded within the high which should move through our region Friday and Friday night. there won’t be any precipitation, but it may delay 70 plus degree readings until Sunday.
Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday of next week. Models this morning were showing possible showers into central California about a week from Wednesday. Models this afternoon keep the precipitation in northern California, but show a stronger system moving through the central part of the state about a week from Thursday night or Friday. The new two week outlook is also indicating a chance of showers between the 19th and the 25th along with above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight but with variable high clouds over Kern County. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Thursday and breezy. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday night. mostly clear Saturday through Monday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/64/38/61 | Reedley 35/65/38/62 | Dinuba 34/64/36/61 | |
| Porterville 36/65/38/62 | Lindsay 34/65/37/61 | Delano 38/65/40/61 | |
| Bakersfield 44/66/42/61 | Taft 43/66/43/61 | Arvin 39/67/41/61 | |
| Lamont 41/66/43/61 | Pixley 37/65/38/62 | Tulare 34/64/38/61 | |
| Woodlake 35/63/37/60 | Hanford 36/64/39/60 | Orosi 34/64/37/61 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be generally less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday and Tuesday evening will be generally less than 12 MPH and variable in nature. Winds late Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts possibly exceeding 20 MPH, mainly along the west side. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH.
Rain: There is a chance of light rain or snow showers over the Sierra Nevada Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday with a small chance over the Kern County mountains. In all likelihood, though, the valley will remain dry for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. It’s possible we could see some showers from Fresno County north about a week from Wednesday, although models this afternoon seem to be pushing the rain line further north. However, just when you thought the faucet had been turned off, another stronger system shows up off the California coast about a week from next Thursday night and Friday. Since this is a new feature, we won’t put that in the forecast for now, but we’ll see if other models jump to the same conclusion over the next few days.
Frost Discussion: Tuesday through Thursday mornings could see colder locations dip into the mid to upper 30s with a small chance of isolated low lying spots dipping into the lower 30s. No significant frost or freeze is expected, though, for the remainder of the week. Medium range models overall indicate above average temperatures this coming weekend and beyond, so no freezing temperatures are expected for now.
Next report: Tuesday morning/March 12