March 11, 2019
Summary: The center of circulation of a weak upper level low has actually drifted further off shore several hundred miles to the west/southwest of Vandenberg. A swath of moisture is wrapping around the eastern side of the low and is moving into southern California. The northern portion of this cloud deck will be observed in the form of increasing cloudiness over the southern San Joaquin Valley this morning. Showers will spread into most of southern California today. Most of the model information indicates the showers will move no further north than the Kern County mountains, however it wouldn’t be a shock to see a few showers clip the valley portion of Kern County this afternoon and tonight. The low will move towards the southeast even more then finally will move into Baja and Sonora, Mexico on Tuesday.
In the meantime, to our north a low will rapidly move into the Pacific Northwest tonight then will dive into the Great Basin Tuesday, eventually being absorbed by that southern low. This will move into the Midwest Wednesday with, no doubt, plenty of bells and whistles.
Beginning Wednesday, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to expand eastward and northward, shielding California from additional precipitation for a while. The remainder of the week will be dry, however some models are now hinting at the possibility of a trough of low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California about the middle of next week, possibly followed by another system later in the week. Meanwhile, though, temperatures this weekend will move into the low to mid 70s with possible mid to upper 70s early next week. Temperatures, though, will take a dive again as that new projected system moves in.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning. Becoming mostly cloudy in the south valley this afternoon and for a time tonight with a slight chance of showers in Kern County. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Monday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/36/64/38/61 | Reedley 62/37/64/38/61 | Dinuba 61/35/64/37/60 | |
| Porterville 63/36/64/38/62 | Lindsay 63/35/64/37/62 | Delano 63/39/64/41/61 | |
| Bakersfield 61/46/66/43/62 | Taft 62/45/66/45/61 | Arvin 61/43/66/43/61 | |
| Lamont 62/43/66/43/62 | Pixley 62/38/64/39/63 | Tulare 61/35/64/38/61 | |
| Woodlake 62/35/64/39/61 | Hanford 63/37/64/39/62 | Orosi 61/34/64/37/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 38/66 |
Friday
Mostly clear 41/67 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 43/71 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 44/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/77 |
Two Week Outlook: March 17 through March 23: This model is indicating at least a minimal chance of showers exists. The overall pattern, however, still maintains high pressure over the western states so temperatures should be somewhat above seasonal averages.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH today. Winds tonight will be less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will again be at or less than 12 MPH. late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the west side. Winds Wednesday night will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with light winds returning Thursday.
Rain: The only chance of showers will be this afternoon and tonight over the valley portion of Kern County and even then the chance will be slight. The next chance for a general rain event will be next week on Wednesday as models show the possibility of a trough of low pressure digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska with another system possibly following later in the week. Otherwise, enjoy some dry weather for a change.
Frost Discussion: Lows Tuesday through Thursday mornings may dip into the mid to upper 30s in many locations. There is a small chance of river bottom and like locations dipping into the lower 30s for a few hours, but no real frost or freeze is on the horizon. In fact, later this week and well into next week, temperatures will actually rise to above seasonal averages.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/85%
Actual Humidity March 9, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .60, Blackwell .52, Lindcove .42, Arvin .65, Orange Cove .49, Porterville .52, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 86/30. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1844 -420
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.2 +0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.89 season. or +.49. Month to Date: 1.07 +.36
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +1.02. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.50
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:14 am Sunset: 7:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 63 / 38 / 0.24 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 61 / 40 / 0.12 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 62 / 38 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 61 / 34 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 60 / 41 / 0.03 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 61 / 39 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 59 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 14.00 130 5.60 52 10.80 14.06
MODESTO 0.02 10.76 109 4.45 45 9.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 119 3.82 41 9.32 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 95 3.29 36 9.16 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.89 106 3.23 38 8.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 95 2.60 34 7.63 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 121 1.71 36 4.78 6.47
BISHOP T 7.41 198 0.20 5 3.74 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 11.17 114 3.59 37 9.82 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 134 4.55 46 9.97 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 126 2.97 28 10.79 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/March 11