March 12, 2019
Summary: Low pressure is now moving inland through Sonora, Mexico and will no longer be a player in our weather pattern. Instead, we have a new low rapidly moving into the Great Basin adjacent to the northern Sierra Nevada which will dive southeastward, eventually moving into a powerful storm developing over the northern and central Rockies. Chances are excellent we won’t pick up any rain from this system. Even so, as the low passes to the east of the Sierra Nevada and showers of rain or snow spread down the Sierra, it’s possible an isolated shower or two could be sustained over the valley floor tonight.
Gusty winds will also increase later tonight and Wednesday as rapidly falling pressure over the interior west and strong high pressure just off shore create a strong pressure difference across California. Already, along the central coast, winds are gusting into the 30 and 40 plus MPH range.
A colder air mass will follow this system. In fact, I’m going to introduce the possibility of isolated pockets of frost Thursday morning.
Upper level high pressure will begin to build northward and eastward Wednesday afternoon and through the upcoming weekend. A weak ripple of low pressure will move through the high, resulting in partly cloudy skies Friday and Friday night but with no chance of rain. The high will reach its pinnacle Monday and Tuesday of next week as readings will move into the mid to upper 70s with even a chance of a few 80 degree readings, mainly in Kern County.
An elongated trough of low pressure will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska all the way southward to off the southern California coast Wednesday and Thursday of next week. We’ll keep a chance of mainly light showers in the forecast from this system for those days. Previous models had indicated a possibly stronger system would follow, however models have become decidedly inconclusive on this.
Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy tonight with a slight chance of isolated showers after the late evening hours. Partly cloudy Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. mostly clear Saturday through Tuesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 38/59/34/63 | Reedley 39/60/34/64 | Dinuba 38/59/33/63 | |
| Porterville 39/60/34/64 | Lindsay 38/61/32/65 | Delano 40/60/35/65 | |
| Bakersfield 41/59/38/66 | Taft 42/61/40/67 | Arvin 40/61/36/67 | |
| Lamont 41/61/37/67 | Pixley 39/59/34/64 | Tulare 38/60/33/63 | |
| Woodlake 38/59/33/63 | Hanford 39/59/35/64 | Orosi 38/60/33/64 | |
Winds: Winds this evening will be generally light then will be out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH from Fresno County north and along the west side with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds in Tulare and Kern Counties will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts through Wednesday. Winds will diminish Wednesday evening, becoming generally light Thursday through Friday.
Rain: There is a slight chance of isolated showers later tonight as an inside slider moves southeastward just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. The chance of measurable rain at any given location is about 20% or less. From Wednesday and on through next Tuesday night, dry conditions can be expected. Some kind of low pressure system appears likely to move through next Wednesday and Thursday for a chance of light showers, although on paper it does not appear to be very dynamic. Models had indicated a possible stronger system moving through next Friday or Saturday. However, models are more mixed now so a wait and see attitude is appropriate there. The new two week outlook is calling for a better than even chance of above average rainfall between the 20 and the 26.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight, but possibly slightly above in the coldest, wind sheltered locations. Local frost will be possible Thursday morning in low lying typically coldest terrain frost pockets. For now, it appears the vast majority of locations will range between 33 and 39 degrees with isolated river bottom and other typical low spots down to 30 to 32 for perhaps a couple of hours or so. Rapid modification will begin Thursday, so look for all locations to be above freezing Friday and beyond. Still nothing on medium range models to suggest a pattern which would be conducive for a spring frost situation.
Next report: Wednesday morning/March 13