March 12, 2019
Summary: The upper level low has now moved into northern Baja. There are still light showers as far north as extreme southern Inyo and extreme eastern Kern County. The low will begin to accelerate towards the northeast and will join forces with another low which is currently moving through Oregon. It will dive into the Great Basin this afternoon. All this will set up strong differences in pressure between falling pressure over the interior west and building high pressure off shore. Strongest winds, of course, will be over the Kern County mountains. However, this afternoon through Wednesday will see the development of gusty northwest winds with gusts possibly exceeding 35 MPH along the west side.
I want to keep a slight chance of isolated showers in the forecast for tonight as the far western side of the low moving into the Great Basin will brush the Sierra Nevada.
Temperatures will cool back into the upper 50s and lower 60s Wednesday but then the eastern Pacific high will begin building northward and eastward and will become the dominant feature Wednesday night through early next week. Freezing levels which are currently at 6,700 feet will more than likely end up at around 12,000 feet by Friday.
Models beginning Wednesday show a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California. For now it appears a chance of showers from Fresno north is possible with only a slight chance in the south valley. A week from Friday, yet another, stronger low, will move into northern California, possibly affecting central California a week from Friday night.
The bottom line is, after today you can enjoy some fine, spring weather. I still believe that by Monday or Tuesday, more and more locations, especially in Kern County, could be teasing with the 80 degree mark.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of isolated showers. Clearing Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Tuesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/40/59/35/64 | Reedley 64/41/60/36/63 | Dinuba 63/39/61/34/63 | |
| Porterville 65/39/60/35/63 | Lindsay 65/38/61/34/65 | Delano 65/40/60/36/65 | |
| Bakersfield 65/44/61/39/67 | Taft 65/43/61/41/66 | Arvin 67/40/60/37/65 | |
| Lamont 66/42/61/37/67 | Pixley 65/39/61/35/63 | Tulare 63/38/59/34/63 | |
| Woodlake 64/39/60/35/63 | Hanford 65/40/60/35/64 | Orosi 63/38/61/34/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 42/66 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 41/70 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 44/75 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/78 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 47/77 |
Two Week Outlook: March 19 through March 25: This model indicates there’s a reasonable chance of above average rainfall over the northern half of the state. The chance of rain will lessen considerably from Fresno County south. Looks like we’ll have at least a chance of showers during this time frame with marginally above average temperatures.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH this morning. Later this afternoon, winds from Fresno County north and along the west side will increase to 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, continuing tonight and Wednesday. Gusts along the west side late this afternoon through Wednesday could be as strong as 35 MPH. winds will quickly diminish Wednesday night with generally light winds Thursday through Friday.
Rain: I am going to put a slight chance of isolated showers in the forecast for tonight. An inside slider will be moving into Nevada, spreading showers over the Sierra Nevada. Just in case a renegade shower or two moves over the valley floor, I would put the chance of measurable rain at no more than 20%. Dry weather will prevail Wednesday through at least Tuesday of next week. There will be a chance of mainly light showers from Fresno County north a week from Wednesday and a higher risk of showers about Friday or Friday night of next week with heaviest precipitation being over northern California.
Frost Discussion: Mid to upper 30s are possible Wednesday and Thursday morning with a chance of isolated river bottom and like locations dipping into the lower 30s for an hour or two. But a general frost is not expected. For Friday and beyond, rapid warming will take place for no chance of below freezing temperatures Friday and on through all of next week. For now, there is no pattern on medium range models suggesting a cold weather pattern for California.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity March 11, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .59, Parlier .65, Blackwell .59, Lindcove .49, Arvin .65, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .61, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 57, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 84/28. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1856 -418
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.0 -0.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.89 season. or +.41. Month to Date: 1.07 +.28
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +.97. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.45
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:13 am Sunset: 7:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 61 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 65 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 64 / MM / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 59 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 14.00 129 5.60 51 10.88 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.76 108 4.45 45 9.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 118 3.82 41 9.39 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 94 3.29 36 9.22 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.89 105 3.23 38 8.48 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 94 2.60 34 7.68 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 120 1.71 35 4.83 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 197 0.20 5 3.76 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.51 116 3.59 36 9.91 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 132 4.55 45 10.07 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 125 2.97 27 10.89 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/March 12