March 13, 2019
Summary: The cold front which moved through the valley last night dropped .01 on Fresno. That was the only reporting station that received measurable precipitation. That front is now moving through southern California. A huge winter storm has developed over the Rockies and is now spilling out into the Great Plains. All this means lower barometric pressure over the interior west as compared to the building ridge of upper level high pressure off shore. This will generate gusty, northwesterly winds along the west side of the valley today with winds generally in the 10 to 15 MPH range in the south valley and in Tulare County. Already, Panoche Road in western Fresno County is reporting sustained winds at 19, gusting to 29 MPH.
Overall, there will be a short lived cooling trend today behind the frontal passage with overnight lows dipping into the 30s tonight with even patchy frost in those traditional low frost prone areas. The high will continue to build northward and eastward for the remainder of the weak. The exception will be partly cloudy skies for a time Thursday night into Friday.
The high will reach its pinnacle Sunday through Tuesday as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 70s. there is a chance of isolated regions, mainly in Kern County, teasing with the 80 degree mark. At midweek, a low pressure system shows up on models in a completely different form that previously indicated. The low will be off the southern California coast then will move inland Wednesday night and Thursday for a low chance of showers.
By Friday and Saturday, an elongated trough of low pressure will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska southward to off the southern California coast for another chance of showers. Some models indicate a generally unsettled pattern from late next week into the following week. Even the two week model is suggesting a good chance of above average precipitation from the 20 through the 26.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Tuesday night. variable cloudiness Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/35/64/39/68 | Reedley 59/35/64/38/68 | Dinuba 58/33/64/41/67 | |
| Porterville 60/35/64/39/69 | Lindsay 60/32/64/38/69 | Delano 61/36/64/39/69 | |
| Bakersfield 58/39/66/43/70 | Taft 61/41/66/45/68 | Arvin 59/37/66/42/70 | |
| Lamont 59/38/66/43/69 | Pixley 59/34/64/40/68 | Tulare 58/32/64/39/67 | |
| Woodlake 59/34/64/39/67 | Hanford 59/36/64/40/69 | Orosi 59/33/64/39/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 43/71 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 45/74 |
Monday
Mostly clear 47/77 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/78 |
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 52/75 |
Two Week Outlook: March 20 through March 26: This model indicates the possibility of off and on unsettled weather for a reasonable chance of rain during this time frame. It also indicates temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds from Fresno County north and along the west side will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with possible gusts to 30 MPH, especially along the west side. Winds in Tulare and Kern Counties will generally be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds will diminish this evening, becoming generally less than 8 MPH after midnight with periods of near calm conditions, especially along the east side. Winds Thursday through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and early morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Tuesday night of next week. From next Wednesday through Saturday, models are all over the place. For now, there doesn’t seem to be a signature that would result in significant precipitation, but rather a chance of light showers on any of these days. For now, I think it’s prudent to emphasize the word chance. The medium range outlook going out through the 26 is showing a greater than usual chance for unsettled weather.
Frost Discussion: Relatively cold air will sweep down the valley out of the northwest today in the form of gusty, northwesterly winds, especially along the west side of the valley. These winds will drive dew points possibly below the 30 degree mark along the west side and in the low to mid 30s on the east side and down into Kern County. Most locations will range between 33 and 38 tonight, but a few low spots such as river bottom and similar locations could drop as low as 30 with other isolated pockets in the lower 30s. this will be a one night event. Warmer air will begin to move in aloft Thursday due to building high pressure with above freezing temperatures through the weekend and all of next week. Nothing for now indicating a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity March 12, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 95%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .73, Parlier .78, Blackwell .71, Lindcove .61, Arvin .79, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 57, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 84/31. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1868 +416
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 53.9 -0.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.90 season. or +.35. Month to Date: 1.8 +.22
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +.93. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.41
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 7:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:50
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 66 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 69 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1646 / 67 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 66 / 40 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1645 / 66 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / M / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 14.00 128 5.62 51 10.96 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.76 108 4.45 45 10.00 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 117 3.88 41 9.46 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 93 3.30 36 9.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.89 104 3.25 38 8.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 93 2.66 34 7.74 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 119 1.71 35 4.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 196 0.20 5 3.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.51 115 3.62 36 9.99 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 131 4.58 45 10.17 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 123 2.97 27 10.99 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/March 13