March 16, 2019
Summary: A strong ridge of upper level high pressure continues to slowly move inland via the eastern Pacific Ocean. By Sunday night and Monday, the high will stretch from northwest Mexico all the way northward to northwest Canada, driving temperatures from 10 to 15 above average Monday and Tuesday. This high is actually upwelling ahead of a developing trough of low pressure well out over the ocean which will move eastward to a position just off shore by Tuesday afternoon. This trough looks somewhat stronger this morning that it has previously so we’ll amend the forecast from a chance of showers to showers likely, especially for Wednesday through Thursday morning, although we could see showers show up as early as Tuesday evening.
The portion of the trough moving through California will be relatively warm with fairly high snow levels. A weak ridge is projected to build in behind this system Thursday night into Saturday. Models still indicate another low will be off the northern California coast by a week from tomorrow, spreading precipitation over the northern half of the state and some models show precip down into southern California, as well.
The two week model going out from the 23 through the 28 shows the highest risk of rain anywhere in the U.S. over northern and central California. Apparently, this rain fall season is nowhere near winding down even though March is traditionally the last month in the rainfall season.
Forecast: Clear skies through Monday night with the warming trend continuing. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a chance of showers. Showers at times Wednesday through Thursday morning with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/39/77/43/79 | Reedley 73/39/76/42/79 | Dinuba 72/38/75/41/78 | |
| Porterville 73/38/77/43/80 | Lindsay 73/39/77/42/80 | Delano 73/40/78/43/81 | |
| Bakersfield 74/46/77/50/82 | Taft 73/48/78/51/82 | Arvin 75/41/78/45/83 | |
| Lamont 73/43/78/48/81 | Pixley 72/42/76/41/79 | Tulare 72/39/75/44/77 | |
| Woodlake 72/38/75/43/79 | Hanford 73/41/76/44/80 | Orosi 72/39/75/44/78 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Showers late 48/74 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 51/63 |
Thursday
AM showers 47/66 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 44/69 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 46/75 |
Two Week Outlook: March 23 through March 28: This model paints a bulls eye right at northern California with well above average chances of precipitation from time to time during this time frame. Temperatures will also fall back to below average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Monday night. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County north.
Rain: Continued dry conditions through at least Tuesday morning. There is a slight chance of showers as early as Tuesday evening with showers becoming likely late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. This storm looks a little stronger than it had earlier, but by no means a blockbuster. It will be pretty warm, so snow levels will be pretty high. Dry weather will return the following Friday through Saturday then models are inconclusive for a week from tomorrow through the following Monday. However, if there’s a trend it’s for another chance of rain during those two days, especially over northern California. The new two week model indicates on and off periods of precipitation during the last week of the month.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/75%
Actual Humidity March 15, 2019: Delano, 94%/26%, Porterville, 98%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .93, Parlier .91, Blackwell .88, Lindcove .81, Arvin .93, Orange Cove .87, Porterville .88, Delano .96 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 54, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 56, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1910 +404
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 53.3 -1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.90 season. or +.13. Month to Date: 1.08 +.00
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +.80. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.28
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 7:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 71 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 64 / 61 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 14.00 125 6.32 56 11.19 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.76 105 4.84 47 10.21 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 114 4.19 43 9.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 92 3.61 38 9.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.90 101 3.37 38 8.77 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 92 2.89 37 7.88 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 116 2.23 45 5.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 193 0.20 5 3.83 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.51 113 3.70 36 10.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 128 4.91 47 10.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 120 3.17 28 11.27 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/March 16