March 17, 2019
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure covers the western one-third of the U.S. and off shore with a ridge extending northward, covering the Pacific Northwest and northwest Canada. The warming trend will continue today with widespread mid to upper 70s. a number of locations Monday, especially in the south valley, will either tease with or surpass the 80 degree mark. Temperatures Tuesday will depend upon the arrival of increasing clouds ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. By Tuesday night, that trough will extend all the way from the Gulf of Alaska to off shore southern California. This will be a slow moving system, so look for the chance of showers to begin to increase Tuesday night, becoming likely at times Wednesday through the morning hours Thursday.
This does not appear to be a blockbuster storm at all, but the relatively slow movement of this system could cause .25 to .33 to tally up north of Kern County. A weak ridge will follow Thursday afternoon through Friday night for a short period of dry weather. About a week from today, the next low will be centered off the Oregon coast with a trough southward to off the northern and central coast. It will move inland during the second half of the weekend and into early next week. The southern limit of the precipitation shield is still unclear due to model differences on both strength and timing. For now, the chance of rain appears to be relatively high from Fresno north with the chance decreasing further south.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday night. increasing cloudiness by midday Tuesday. The chance of showers will begin to pick up Tuesday night. periods of showers Wednesday through Thursday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday with an increasing chance of showers Saturday afternoon through Monday, especially from Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 76/42/79/47/77 | Reedley 75/43/78/47/75 | Dinuba 74/42/77/47/76 | |
| Porterville 77/43/80/47/79 | Lindsay 77/42/80/46/77 | Delano 77/45/81/48/78 | |
| Bakersfield 78/50/81/53/81 | Taft 77/52/80/54/80 | Arvin 78/46/81/50/80 | |
| Lamont 78/47/81/50/80 | Pixley 76/45/79/48/75 | Tulare 74/42/77/47/75 | |
| Woodlake 75/43/79/48/76 | Hanford 75/44/79/48/75 | Orosi 74/43/78/47/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Showers likely 52/62 |
Thursday
AM showers 49/64 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 44/69 |
Saturday
PM showers 48/69 |
Sunday
Showers likely 51/69 |
Two Week Outlook: March 24 through March 30: This model paints a bulls eye right at northern California with well above average chances of precipitation from time to time during this time frame. Temperatures will also fall back to below average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and variable in nature through Monday. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts possible from Fresno County north and along the west side.
Rain: The chance of showers will begin to pick up Tuesday night, becoming likely Wednesday through Thursday morning as a slow moving trough moves through. Amounts of precipitation north of Kern County should range somewhere between .25 and .33. In Kern County, perhaps a tenth or two. Dry weather will begin later Thursday afternoon through Friday night then another low will spread showers over northern and central California possibly as early as Saturday. This system, like its predecessor, will be fairly slow moving with the possibility of a couple of impulses moving through. For n ow, this system does not look to be a large rain maker with most of the energy moving into the northern half of California. The best chance of rain will be from Fresno County north, but rain is certainly possible in the south valley, as well. After Monday of next week, it looks like several days of dry weather will be at hand. The two week model insists on precipitation again from the 24 through the 30, so we’ll see.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/85%
Actual Humidity March 16, 2019: Delano, 94%/26%, Porterville, 98%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .98, Parlier .96, Blackwell .93, Lindcove .86, Arvin .97, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .94, Delano 1.01 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 54, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 56, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 90/31. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1919 +405
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 53.4 -1.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.90 season. or +.06. Month to Date: 1.08 -.07
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +.76. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.24
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:06 am Sunset: 7:09 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:01
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 74 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 72 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 71 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1632 / 72 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 73 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 14.00 124 6.54 58 11.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.76 105 5.02 49 10.28 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 114 4.40 45 9.73 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 91 4.09 43 9.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.90 101 3.82 43 8.84 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 91 3.08 39 7.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 115 2.38 47 5.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 192 0.20 5 3.85 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.51 112 4.09 40 10.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 127 4.96 47 10.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 119 3.17 28 11.36 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/March 18