March 17, 2019
Summary: Relatively strong upper level high pressure is right overhead today and will reach its pinnacle, driving temperatures a degree or two above the 80 degree mark in some locations especially over Kern County. The high will begin to shift eastward Tuesday as a long awaited trough of low pressure stretches from the Gulf of Alaska to off the southern California coast. The trough will be a slow mover but will begin to spread showers into the valley Tuesday night with periods of showers Wednesday into Thursday morning. We’re into that time of year when colder air moves in aloft and the much stronger spring sun destabilizes the atmosphere, making thunderstorms a possibility Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers will wind down by early Thursday but will linger over the Sierra Nevada through Thursday evening and possibly the Kern County mountains.
Precipitation amounts from this system will be fairly light. Even so, .25 to .33 is possible north of Kern County with locally more if thunderstorms occur.
A weak ridge will build in from the west Thursday afternoon through Friday night for a short period of dry weather. A new low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Saturday, spreading showers over northern California and at least parts of central California. Currently, it appears showers will occur from Fresno County north. Essentially, the chance of rain will be lower the further south you progress.
It appears Sunday through Wednesday will be dry under a ridge of upper level high pressure. Later next week, however, a broad trough of low pressure will be along the west coast for increased chances of precipitation beyond mid week. A couple of models are suggesting a significant winter type storm will affect California about the 31 and into the first couple of days of April.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear today and tonight. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Showers becoming likely later Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers for a time, mainly early Thursday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night leading to a chance of showers Saturday, mainly from Fresno County north. A chance of showers Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/48/75/53/65 | Reedley 79/49/76/53/65 | Dinuba 78/49/75/52/64 | |
| Porterville 81/50/77/53/66 | Lindsay 80/50/77/54/66 | Delano 81/49/77/54/66 | |
| Bakersfield 82/54/80/55/67 | Taft 79/55/78/55/65 | Arvin 82/51/80/54/66 | |
| Lamont 81/51/80/53/65 | Pixley 79/48/76/53/64 | Tulare 79/48/75/53/64 | |
| Woodlake 79/48/77/51/65 | Hanford 80/49/76/54/65 | Orosi 79/48/75/53/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM showers 48/64 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 45/66 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 50/70 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 45/72 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 43/69 |
Two Week Outlook: March 25 through March 31: This model paints a bulls eye right at northern California with well above average chances of precipitation from time to time during this time frame. Temperatures will also fall back to below average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 12 MPH today and generally less than 7 MPH tonight. Winds Tuesday and Tuesday night will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH. However, in Kern County, winds will increase out of the southeast to 15 to 30 MPH with local gusts to near 45 MPH possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Gusts to near 30 are possible along the west side. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be variable to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH possible, especially near showers or thunderstorms.
Rain: Rain chances will begin to pick up later Tuesday evening. Periods of showers can be expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. it is possible isolated thunderstorms may develop Wednesday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be accompanied by heavy rain and small hail. Rainfall amounts north of Kern County should range at about .25 to .33 with higher amounts where thunderstorms hit. For the first part of this event, Kern County may experience strong southeasterly winds which will dry out the air, so for now it appears no more than .10 to .20 can be expected there. There will be a chance of showers early Thursday morning, but by and large Thursday through Friday night will be dry.
The next system is not that impressive looking on modeling. Even so, the chance of showers from Fresno County north is there for Saturday through Saturday night with lesser possibilities further south.
From Sunday through midweek, conditions look dry. Most of the models now are indicating precipitation chances will increase again at the end of next week and through the following weekend. A couple of models are showing a major winter storm affecting California around the 31st and on through the first of April.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity March 17, 2019: Delano, 93%/31%, Porterville, 95%/29%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.04, Parlier 1.01, Blackwell .98, Lindcove .92, Arvin 1.03, Orange Cove .96, Porterville .99, Delano 1.06 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 56, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 87/32. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1925 +408
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 53.7 -0.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.90 season. or -.01. Month to Date: 1.08 -.14
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +.72. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 am Sunset: 7:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:02
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 77 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 78 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 77 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 77 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 14.00 124 6.54 58 11.33 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.76 104 5.02 49 10.35 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 113 4.40 45 9.79 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 91 4.09 43 9.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.90 100 3.82 43 8.91 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 91 3.08 39 7.97 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 114 2.41 47 5.08 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 192 0.20 5 3.86 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.51 111 4.32 42 10.39 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 126 5.16 49 10.62 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 119 3.17 28 11.44 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/March 18