March 19, 2019
Summary: High clouds are beginning to move in from the southwest ahead of what we call a negative tilted trough of low pressure. Satellite imagery illustrates this the best as the system is tilted from northwest to southeast off the California coast. Clouds will slowly thicken and lower this afternoon as the trough slowly approaches. Models show significant differences in pressure at the surface between the interior west and the approaching storm. This raises questions about potential strong winds over the Kern County portion of the valley floor and, to a lesser extent, the west side. Local gusts to 40 to 50 MPH are certainly possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains beginning later this afternoon and continuing tonight. Winds will die off as the trough moves inland and pressure differences equalize.
Models are picking up on the fact that a secondary low will develop along the southern side of the trough and will move inland Wednesday afternoon through the first half of the day Thursday. With a cold pool of air moving overhead and anticipated breaks in the cloud cover Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday afternoon and evening. Anywhere thunderstorms do form could experience localized heavy rain and small hail.
With that secondary low moving through, showers will be possible through at least the first part of the day Thursday, ending over the valley but continuing through the afternoon over the mountains. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will follow the low for dry weather Thursday night through Friday night.
The next weather system looks much weaker but nevertheless will spread light precipitation over northern California Saturday and Saturday night. if precipitation occurs, it will be mainly from Fresno County northward with just a small chance of light showers in the south valley.
Another ridge will then build in from the west Sunday and Monday for dry and warmer weather. The possibility of a stronger winter type storm around Tuesday night or Wednesday shows up on models this morning. There are differences on models in timing and strength for this system, but for now it appears it will move in about a week from tonight, bringing more precipitation with it.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Showers spreading in from the west/southwest tonight, continuing Wednesday through Thursday morning. Expect a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, possibly accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday leading to a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County southward through Saturday night. mostly clear to partly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 79/53/67/49/64 | Reedley 79/53/67/49/65 | Dinuba 78/51/66/46/64 | |
Porterville 80/53/67/48/64 | Lindsay 79/53/66/49/64 | Delano 80/53/66/49/65 | |
Bakersfield 82/54/68/50/63 | Taft 79/55/68/50/63 | Arvin 82/53/68/50/64 | |
Lamont 81/53/66/51/64 | Pixley 81/52/66/49/63 | Tulare 78/52/65/48/63 | |
Woodlake 79/53/66/48/64 | Hanford 80/53/66/49/65 | Orosi 79/52/65/48/64 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
Partly cloudy 44/68 |
Saturday
Light showers possible 51/64 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 43/70 |
Monday
Mostly clear 44/75 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 47/77 |
Two Week Outlook: March 26 through April 1: This model is indicating the possibility of milder Pacific storms affecting central California. The chance of precipitation during this time frame is relatively high. The general flow pattern out of the Pacific is out of the west. Temperatures will be largely above seasonal norms.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally light this morning. Pressure differences will really begin to tighten up this afternoon and tonight ahead of the approaching trough of low pressure. The configuration of this storm is such that strong winds may develop in the Kern County portion of the valley this afternoon and tonight with local gusts to 40 to 50 MPH possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Gusts to 35 are possible as far north as Bakersfield. Winds in the 30 to 40 MPH range are possible along the west side. Elsewhere, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be generally out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH near showers and especially near thunderstorms. Generally light winds will prevail Thursday night through Friday.
Rain: The chance for rain will increase tonight as a slow moving trough makes its move on central California. Showers will be possible Wednesday through Thursday morning. A secondary low is developing along the southern portion of the trough and it will move inland Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. This feature will have relatively cold, unstable air aloft associated with it. With daytime heating, thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers will continue well into Thursday morning, generally ending over the valley floor by midday or so. It still looks like rainfall amounts will range around .25 to .33 north of Kern County and away from the Interstate 5 corridor. In Kern County, perhaps a tenth or two is possible. Locations which happen to be in the path of a thunderstorm could potentially pick up more than .50. expect dry weather Thursday afternoon through Friday night. a weaker system will move into northern California Saturday and Saturday night, spreading showers down to about Fresno County with just a minimal chance of light showers in the south valley. Sunday through Tuesday will be dry with possibly a stronger system affecting the area about the middle of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/70%
Actual Humidity March 18, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 94%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.08, Parlier 1.05, Blackwell 1.03, Lindcove .97, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove .98, Porterville 1.03, Delano 1.06 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 56, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 86/32. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1928 +414
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.2 -0.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.90 season. or -.07. Month to Date: 1.08 -.20
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +.67. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.15
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03 am Sunset: 7:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:04
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 81 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 79 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 14.00 123 6.54 57 11.40 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.76 103 5.02 48 10.42 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 112 4.40 45 9.85 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 90 4.09 43 9.58 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.90 99 3.82 43 8.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 90 3.08 38 8.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 113 2.41 47 5.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 191 0.20 5 3.88 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.51 110 4.32 41 10.46 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 125 5.16 48 10.70 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 118 3.17 27 11.53 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/March 19