March 20, 2019
Summary: Light showers spread over central California overnight with most locations recording less than .10. Doppler radar, as of the time of this writing, was indicating light showers in western Fresno County and up in Madera County and parts of Merced County. Scattered light showers can be expected through Thursday morning as the main body of low pressure moves through. If we get some breaks in the overcast this afternoon, allowing the sun to warm the ground, destabilization of the atmosphere would be the result, possibly leading to thunderstorms anytime from midday through the evening hours.
The trough will move into Nevada Thursday with showers ending sometime Thursday morning over the valley with the risk of showers over the Sierra Nevada Thursday afternoon. Weak upper level high pressure will build in from the west Thursday night through Friday for a short period of dry weather.
The next low will have most of its impact over northern California, although a weak front will move through Saturday through Saturday evening. Light showers appear likely from Fresno County north with less of a chance the further south you progress. Upper level high pressure will then become reestablished along the coast Sunday through Monday night. a low will then approach the California coast Tuesday for yet another chance of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. the active pattern will not end there. Some models are picking up on a potential Pacific storm moving on shore around Thursday through Friday of next week for more rain.
Beyond that, the two week outlook going out through April 2 is indicating above average precipitation as we move into early April.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Thursday morning with scattered, generally light showers. A chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rain and small hail will accompany any thunderstorm development. The chance of showers will begin to wane Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon. Mostly clear Thursday night through Friday evening. Increasing cloudiness late Friday night with light showers becoming likely Fresno County north and a lesser chance of showers in the south valley through Saturday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Monday night. mostly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/46/64/43/65 | Reedley 65/47/65/44/66 | Dinuba 63/45/63/43/65 | |
| Porterville 65/45/64/42/66 | Lindsay 65/45/64/41/65 | Delano 65/47/64/44/66 | |
| Bakersfield 66/48/63/46/67 | Taft 64/49/63/48/67 | Arvin 66/48/64/45/67 | |
| Lamont 66/48/64/47/67 | Pixley 65/45/64/43/66 | Tulare 64/46/64/43/65 | |
| Woodlake 63/45/64/42/65 | Hanford 64/48/64/44/66 | Orosi 64/45/64/42/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Chance of showers 51/65 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 42/68 |
Monday
Mostly clear 42/74 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 48/74 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 44/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 27 through April 2: This model still shows a good chance of showers for late March and early April, but has switched its tune as far as temperatures go. This model now indicates temperatures will range at least marginally below average during this time frame.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast today and tonight at 5 to 12 MPH. Local gusts to 30 MPH are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. From Thursday through Friday night, winds will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Bands of mainly light showers will move across the valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from roughly midday through the evening hours. Any storms that do develop will be accompanied by localized, brief heavy rain and small hail. Showers will taper off Thursday morning with dry weather beginning Thursday afternoon through Friday night. amounts of precipitation at most locations will be no more than .10 to .20. There may be some notable exceptions if thunderstorms do develop. Localized rain amounts could then approach .50.
The next weather system will arrive Saturday. The main energy from this storm will move into northern California with the likelihood of light showers down to Fresno County and a chance of light showers in the south valley. The dry/wet pattern will continue as Sunday and Monday should be dry with another weak system moving in Tuesday and Tuesday night for a chance of showers with just possibly another, stronger storm moving through Thursday through Friday.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/5%
Actual Humidity March 19, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 85%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.07, Parlier 1.05, Blackwell 1.04, Lindcove .96, Arvin 1.09, Orange Cove .96, Porterville NA, Delano 1.06 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 57, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 89/33. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1930 +421
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.6 -0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.95 season. or -.09. Month to Date: 1.13 -.22
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.81, or +.64. Month to Date: 1.93 +1.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:01 am Sunset: 7:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 81 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 49 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 77 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 73 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 72 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 14.00 122 6.54 57 11.47 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.76 103 5.02 48 10.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 112 4.40 44 9.90 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 90 4.09 43 9.62 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.90 98 3.82 42 9.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 90 3.08 38 8.06 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 112 2.41 47 5.17 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 190 0.20 5 3.89 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.51 109 4.32 41 10.53 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 124 5.16 48 10.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 117 3.17 27 11.61 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/March 20