We will be out of the office this afternoon, March 21. The next report will be Friday morning, March 22. Thank you for your understanding.
March 21, 2019
Summary: Light showers are still occurring over the Kern County mountains with a patch of light showers running along the Interstate 5 corridor in Kern County. These showers are moving slowly eastward. There is a secondary disturbance that developed just west of San Luis Obispo last night which will spread some light showers in the Kern County portion of the valley this morning. Otherwise, the main body of low pressure has already moved into western Nevada. The air aloft is fairly chilly with a freezing level at only 5,600 feet, so snow may be falling down to roughly 4,800 feet in the Sierra Nevada.
Weak upper level high pressure will begin to fill in later this afternoon through Friday, but the progressive pattern will continue as the next weak low moves into the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California Saturday and Saturday night. the chance of light showers is there for Fresno County and points northward, but measurable precipitation seems unlikely in Kern County with minimal chances in Tulare County.
The rotation of highs and lows will continue as the next high takes over Sunday and Monday for generally clear skies and a temporary warming trend. The next system will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday. On paper, it appears similar to the last couple and will be mainly a Fresno County northward affair with only light precipitation expected. Yet another will move in Wednesday night and Thursday. Previous models had indicated this system had greater potential to be a stronger weather event. That does not appear to be the case this morning with generally light showers now expected, mainly from Fresno County northward.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Scattered showers will be likely in Kern County with a slight chance of showers elsewhere. Partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday leading to a chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward through Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday morning then a chance of showers late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/41/66/47/66 | Reedley 63/42/67/47/66 | Dinuba 64/41/67/47/65 | |
| Porterville 63/41/67/46/66 | Lindsay 64/40/67/46/65 | Delano 63/42/67/48/66 | |
| Bakersfield 63/45/67/47/65 | Taft 64/47/68/49/65 | Arvin 63/43/67/47/65 | |
| Lamont 63/44/68/47/64 | Pixley 64/41/66/47/66 | Tulare 63/41/67/45/65 | |
| Woodlake 63/41/67/46/66 | Hanford 63/42/67/47/65 | Orosi 63/40/67/45/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 43/69 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/75 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 51/75 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 48/68 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 46/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 27 through April 2: This model still shows a good chance of showers for late March and early April, but has switched its tune as far as temperatures go. This model now indicates temperatures will range at least marginally below average during this time frame.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be variable today through Sunday at 5 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings and 0 to 5 MPH nights and mornings.
We will be out of the office this afternoon, March 21. The next report will be Friday morning, March 22. Thank you for your understanding.
Rain: Rainfall amounts varied widely, mainly because of isolated thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening. Madera reported .70, Reedley .48, Visalia .01, Harris Ranch .33, Huron .42, Kettleman Hills .03, Lemoore .34, Mettler .05, Lamont .08, Porterville .02, Delano .05, Tulare .01, Visalia .01, Stratford .07, Orange Cove .12, Arvin .25 and Lindcove .17.
There is a batch of light showers in western Kern County which will move eastward over the next several hours. Otherwise, the valley at this time is rain free. The entire valley will be dry this afternoon through Friday night. the rotation of high and low pressure will continue over the next week. The next low to affect central California will arrive Saturday with only light showers and even then mainly from Fresno County northward. Dry weather will return Sunday through Monday then the next low will move into our region late Monday night and Tuesday for a chance of light showers, again mainly from Fresno County north. Wednesday night and Thursday look to be the best timeframe for the next in the parade. Previous models had indicated this system could be fairly strong, but most of the models this morning seem to be backing off on that train of thought, calling for mainly light precipitation from the Kern County mountains north.
The two week outlook which encompasses very late March and early April still indicates a good chance of above average precipitation.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/85%
Actual Humidity March 20, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 95%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .98, Parlier 1.05, Blackwell 1.03, Lindcove .92, Arvin 1.06, Orange Cove .94, Porterville 1.02, Delano 1.06 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 58, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 88/30. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1938 +422
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.7 -0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.96 season. or -.14. Month to Date: 1.14 -.27
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.83, or +.63. Month to Date: 1.95 +1.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:00 am Sunset: 7:12 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:08
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 67 / 52 / 0.70 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 65 / 52 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 66 / 47 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 62 / 46 / 0.04 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 67 / 47 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 66 / 46 / 0.01 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 69 / 45 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 62 / 50 / 0.40 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 50 / 0.27 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.36 14.46 125 6.77 59 11.53 14.06
MODESTO 0.10 10.94 104 5.13 49 10.54 13.11
MERCED 0.01 11.21 113 4.52 45 9.96 12.50
MADERA 0.59 9.36 97 4.37 45 9.66 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 8.96 98 4.14 45 9.10 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 7.26 90 3.31 41 8.09 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 5.81 112 2.52 48 5.20 6.47
BISHOP 0.03 7.50 192 0.20 5 3.91 5.18
SALINAS 0.38 11.89 112 4.89 46 10.59 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.35 13.69 126 5.56 51 10.85 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.24 13.85 118 3.57 31 11.69 13.95
Next report: Friday morning/March 22