Summary: The strong rain shadow we’ve been discussing would occur with this storm has certainly come to pass. As of 1:00pm, no rain had been recorded in Kern County and parts of Kings and Tulare Counties and less than .10 was tallied in Madera County and eastern Fresno County. Surprisingly, even the Tulare County portion of the Sierra Nevada has been rain free while from Fresno County north, generally .25 to .66 has accumulated.
From this point on, the precipitation pattern will be more scattered. I still don’t want to rule out isolated thunderstorms for later this afternoon and even tonight as the jet stream will be right overhead, creating lift to the atmosphere. There’s a small chance of a few showers early Thursday morning, by generally speaking, Thursday appears dry now.
By Thursday afternoon, upper level high pressure will be nosing in from the eastern Pacific Ocean for the beginning of a dry pattern which may hold all the way through the middle part of next week. There will be a weak trough passage about Tuesday and Tuesday night which will spread light showers over northern California with only a slight chance as far south as Fresno County.
After Tuesday, a dry pattern will continue. We’re still watching the pattern for the 5th through the 8th. Models show a very large low covering all of the northeast Pacific with a strong westerly flow into northern and central California. However, some of the latest models are indicating the southern limit of the rain line will end up farther north, keeping the rain mainly north of a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. This would not be too much of a shock considering by then we’ll be into April when the wet season begins to wind down. Still, this is the first time the rain line has been nudged north of our area for this time frame so we’ll see if this is just a deviation or a trend.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness tonight with scattered showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon through the evening hours. A slight chance of showers for a time Thursday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night. variable cloudiness Tuesday with a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/68/43/68 | Reedley 47/69/44/67 | Dinuba 47/66/42/67 | |
| Porterville 49/68/42/68 | Lindsay 46/67/42/68 | Delano 49/69/43/68 | |
| Bakersfield 51/69/47/69 | Taft 51/68/49/68 | Arvin 48/69/43/69 | |
| Lamont 48/69/44/68 | Pixley 47/67/47/67 | Tulare 46/66/41/67 | |
| Woodlake 46/67/42/68 | Hanford 48/67/43/68 | Orosi 45/67/42/67 | |
Winds: Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH north of Kern County with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight and Thursday will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Thursday evening. Winds later Thursday night through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH.
Rain: Models for the past week indicating strong rain shadows along the west side have certainly been accurate as very light amounts have fallen even over the east side of the valley. No measurable rain at all has fallen over the valley portion of Kern County or the southern half of Kings and Tulare Counties. The heaviest 24 hour total I could find was .09 at Clovis.
The precipitation pattern tonight will be more widely scattered. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. In fact, one cell has already developed up near Merced. There’s a slight chance of a few lingering showers early Thursday morning, but tomorrow will generally be dry.
Dry weather will continue through the weekend and, well, actually through Monday. A slight chance of showers will spread south to near Fresno County Tuesday and Tuesday night but the remainder of the area will remain dry.
We’ve been talking about the period from April 4 through the 8 being very active and that still shows up on paper, however some models this afternoon have nudged the southern limit of the rain line a bit further north…more up towards a Monterey/Merced line. This is somewhat of a deviation from previous trends, so we’ll see if this trend continues or if it reverts back to showing a good chance of showers over the entire area.
Next report: Thursday morning/March 28