March 28, 2019
Summary: Skies are mostly clear over the valley this afternoon with the exception of some upslope clouds mainly over southeastern Tulare County and Kern County due to upsloping against the Kern County mountains and the extreme southern Sierra Nevada. Weak high pressure will slowly build in from the west/southwest over the next 72 hours, resulting in a slow warming trend. By the time Sunday and Monday roll around, we will move back into the low to mid 70s. the next weather system of note will be a fairly compact system which will move into northern California late Monday night, spreading showers down to at least Fresno County. Some models are now pushing the rain line further south, possibly as far south as the Tehachapi Mountains later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A brief dry slot will occur later Wednesday into Thursday then it appears a significant storm event will commence about April 5 with very active weather all the way into the 8th. If this pans out, as it looks on medium range models, northern California could actually have one of the strongest storms of the season with precipitation spreading into central California, as well. There could very well be a tropical connection with this event which could lead to heavy precipitation, especially over the Sierra Nevada.
The flow coming in off the Pacific will be generally out of the west or west/southwest which should maintain near to even somewhat above average temperatures, especially during the overnight hours.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight and Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of showers Tuesday into Wednesday, especially from Fresno County north but there will be a chance further south. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 44/68/43/70 | Reedley 43/70/42/71 | Dinuba 41/69/41/69 | |
| Porterville 42/70/41/71 | Lindsay 40/69/40/70 | Delano 43/70/42/71 | |
| Bakersfield 46/70/46/72 | Taft 48/69/48/70 | Arvin 44/69/43/71 | |
| Lamont 45/69/46/71 | Pixley 42/69/42/70 | Tulare 41/68/41/69 | |
| Woodlake 42/69/42/70 | Hanford 44/70/43/70 | Orosi 41/69/41/70 | |
Winds: Winds afternoons and evenings will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Sunday. During the night and morning hours, winds will be at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will prevail through at least Monday. A rather compact low will move from west to east Tuesday across Oregon and northern California. Models are a bit more bullish this afternoon in showing precipitation moving in further south, possibly even down to the Kern County mountains. The best chance of anything significant will occur from Fresno County north. For now, I still consider the chance of measurable rain in the south valley as rather low.
Later Wednesday through Thursday will see a brief dry spell before a possibly very active pattern sets up. From Friday through next weekend, models are indicating a powerful low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a very moist west/southwest flow moving underneath the low through mainly northern and central California. If this pans out the way it appears on paper, this could be one of the strongest storms of the season for the northern third of the state.
Next report: Friday morning/March 29