March 28, 2019
Summary: There are lingering showers this morning over the Sierra Nevada. On the valley floor there are some scattered showers in southern Tulare County and Kern County at this hour. The main rain line will begin to slowly migrate northward today, however a weak ripple of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will move through this afternoon, possibly setting off isolated showers from Fresno County north. Otherwise, by and large, this afternoon will be dry.
In the big picture, we still have a significant low just off the Oregon/California border. Showers will continue over the northern part of the state through Friday then the low will weaken and begin to shift further north. This will allow a weak ridge of upper level high pressure to build into California and dominate the pattern through Monday. The high will shift eastward Monday night in response to a fairly compact and weak low which will move into northern California Monday night and Tuesday. There is a very low chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County during this time frame. The remainder of the valley will be dry with pleasant temperatures.
Another weak ridge will follow and will control the situation through about a week from today, or next Thursday. About the fifth, models show an intense low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and show it driving a strong cold front through central California about the sixth, which would be a week from Saturday. Obviously, this is a low confidence projection at this time, but if it does occur a significant storm event would occur.
The progressive pattern we’ve been under for weeks now will continue as ridges of high pressure move inland followed by troughs of low pressure. If medium range models are correct, this overall pattern will continue through at least April 10.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today. Light showers likely for a time this morning in Kern County with a small chance of showers elsewhere. Partly cloudy this afternoon with a small chance of widely scattered showers from mainly Fresno County north. Partly cloudy tonight but remaining mostly cloudy over portions of Kern County and possibly southeastern Tulare County through Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Monday morning. Increasing cloudiness Monday afternoon. Variable cloudiness Monday night and Tuesday with a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/44/68/43/71 | Reedley 68/45/68/43/69 | Dinuba 67/43/68/42/69 | |
| Porterville 68/43/69/43/71 | Lindsay 67/42/68/42/70 | Delano 68/45/68/43/71 | |
| Bakersfield 66/48/67/46/72 | Taft 67/48/67/47/70 | Arvin 65/46/67/44/71 | |
| Lamont 66/44/69/43/70 | Pixley 67/43/68/42/70 | Tulare 66/44/68/41/69 | |
| Woodlake 68/43/69/42/70 | Hanford 67/45/69/42/70 | Orosi 67/43/68/42/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday mostly clear 45/74 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 52/75 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 49/75 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 48/76/ |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 48/77 |
Two Week Outlook: April 4 through April 10: This model is indicating an active weather pattern for the northern 2/3 of California with a strong low off the Oregon coast and a strong westerly flow into California. Models project disturbances will ride this flow into California from time to time for periodic chances of showers. The flow aloft would be mild, so temperatures, especially overnight, will be above average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25, mainly along the west side. Winds tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and less than 6 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Currently, there is a small batch of light showers over Kern County and extreme southern Tulare County. These showers will slowly move into the mountains over the next few hours, leading to a mostly dry day. A little weak ripple of low pressure will move through this afternoon, possibly adding enough lift for widely scattered showers from Fresno County north this afternoon, but most locations will remain dry. Dry weather will continue tonight through Monday then a weak weather system will move through northern California Monday night and Tuesday with a small chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County. The remainder of the growing area will remain dry.
From the fifth through the seventh, some models are portraying an intense storm off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, driving a strong cold front through the valley about the fifth or sixth. This could result in a significant weather event. That’s quite a ways off, but nevertheless it’s definitely worth monitoring.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/85%
Actual Humidity March 27, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 87%/12%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .91, Parlier .84, Blackwell NA, Lindcove .NA, Arvin .94, Orange Cove .71, Porterville .89, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 59, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 60, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 70/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1989 +432
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 55.4 +0.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.08 season. or -.43. Month to Date: 1.26 -.56
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.85, or +.40. Month to Date: 1.97 +.88
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:49 am Sunset: 7:18 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:25
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 58 / 0.08 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / M / 56 / 0.09 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / M / 50 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 54 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 51 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 67 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / M / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 75 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 53 / T /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.02 15.12 127 7.37 62 11.95 14.06
MODESTO T 11.75 108 5.78 53 10.92 13.11
MERCED 0.12 11.82 115 5.66 55 10.32 12.50
MADERA 0.08 9.60 97 6.51 66 9.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.09 9.08 95 6.09 64 9.51 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 7.36 88 4.41 53 8.37 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.85 107 3.73 68 5.45 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 189 0.82 21 4.00 5.18
SALINAS T 12.01 109 5.29 48 11.04 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.17 13.94 124 9.42 84 11.28 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.21 14.22 117 5.60 46 12.17 13.95
Next report: Thursday afternoon/March 28