April 15, 2019
Summary: many locations Sunday afternoon soared into the mid 80s. that will come to an abrupt halt today as pressures rapidly fall ahead of an incoming low pressure system and its associated cold front. As barometric pressure drops over the interior, pressure gradients will tighten up between California and the eastern Pacific, generating strong, gusty winds in many areas, especially later tonight through Tuesday evening. Wind gusts to 35 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side Tuesday.
Latest models are more aggressive in showing precipitation moving down the valley. For now, it appears light showers may reach Fresno County about 10:00 to 11:00pm and Kern County about 1:00am with light showers possible into Tuesday morning. Much cooler weather will arrive Tuesday as a pool of relatively cold air moves into the region. Most locations will not reach the 70 degree mark Tuesday. This is springtime, and radical differences in temperatures are normal this time of year.
The next big warm up will begin Wednesday with temperatures possibly teasing with the 90 degree mark by Friday as upper level high pressure will be right overhead. This will change once again over the weekend as a weak trough of low pressure moves through Saturday night and Sunday. Models vary considerably but for now the overall consensus is that precipitation will remain to our north. Keep in mind, though, earlier models had also indicated the system moving in would not make it this far south.
Medium range models going out towards the end of the month are indicating generally dry conditions will prevail.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Light showers becoming likely later tonight into Tuesday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Saturday with a warming trend. Variable cloudiness Saturday night through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 76/52/68/44/75 | Reedley 76/53/68/44/75 | Dinuba 75/51/67/43/74 | |
| Porterville 77/50/69/44/74 | Lindsay 77/50/68/43/76 | Delano 77/52/69/45/75 | |
| Bakersfield 78/55/68/48/74 | Taft 77/56/68/50/75 | Arvin 78/54/67/46/76 | |
| Lamont 78/54/68/47/77 | Pixley 76/52/68/43/75 | Tulare 75/50/67/44/74 | |
| Woodlake 76/50/69/43/75 | Hanford 77/53/69/44/75 | Orosi 75/49/68/43/74 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 52/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 57/89 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 55/80 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 56/77 |
Monday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Two Week Outlook: April 22 through April 28: Models continue to indicate generally dry conditions as upper level high pressure will be the most dominant feature during this time frame. Overall, temperatures will generally be above average.
April: This model shows April will be fairly typical with near to marginally above average temperatures during the month. This model also indicates there will be equal chances of above or below average precipitation. In other words, the road map on this model is rather vague.
April, May, June: Like the April projection, this model really has no dominant features that would indicate either above or below average temperatures, although the overall pattern should result in marginally above average readings. We are moving into the dry season, and this model indicates equal chances of above or below average rainfall. As we move forward, this will become a moot point.
Winds: winds this morning will be light, becoming out of the northwest later this afternoon at 10 to 20 MPH, increasing tonight to 15 to 25 MPH, though Tuesday evening. Gusts to 40 MPH are possible along the west side. Winds will decrease after midnight Tuesday night. by Wednesday, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH. Expect light winds Wednesday night through Friday.
Rain: This latest system is a bit more aggressive than previous models had indicated. A fast moving cold front will scoot through northern California today then sweep through the valley later tonight and early Tuesday. For now, it appears light showers should reach Fresno County about 10:00 pm and Kern County by about 1:00 am with light showers behind the front lasting into Tuesday morning. Precipitation amounts will generally be quite light, however it wouldn’t be a total shock to see .25 in eastern Fresno and Madera Counties. Most locations in Kings and Tulare Counties will record generally between .05 and .15 with generally less than .10 in Kern County with some locations possibly remaining dry.
Dry weather will return by midday Tuesday with dry weather for the rest of the week. Models do indicate a weak trough will move through late Saturday night and Sunday, but the consensus is dry conditions will continue. Remember, however, previous models had indicated the current system would be a dry event for the valley.
After Sunday, models indicate a fairly strong, persistent high will build in from the west for dry weather next week.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 26%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/90%
Actual Humidity April 14, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 92%/NA%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.63, Parlier .NA, Blackwell 1.50, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.38, Orange Cove 1.24, Porterville 1.32, Delano 1.35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 64, Delano 66
Record Temperatures: 96/35. Average Temperatures: 74/47
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 11 -2
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 62.3 +3.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.22 season. or -1.01. Month to Date: .14 -.37
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.90, or +.03. Month to Date: .01 -.29
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:24 am Sunset: 7:34 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.68 123 8.77 69 12.71 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.03 103 7.57 65 11.63 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.84 108 6.75 61 10.99 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.75 92 6.95 66 10.56 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.22 90 6.40 63 10.23 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.49 84 4.56 51 8.88 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.90 101 3.86 66 5.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 180 1.13 27 4.20 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.25 104 6.74 57 11.80 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.00 118 9.57 80 11.89 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.47 111 5.75 44 13.01 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/April 15