April 27, 2019
Summary: Satellite imagery depicts very well a cut off low which will begin to spread mid and high level clouds over the valley today. Models have been very consistent on this feature for quite some time and that continues this morning. The center of circulation of this low will move near the California/Mexico border late Sunday night and Monday. Central California will be on the northern circulation pattern of this low which will briefly create a northeast flow over the valley floor. This system is quite moisture starved. Even so, a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to increase over the Sierra Nevada, mainly from Tulare County south, and over the Kern County mountains, especially Monday and Monday night. I still cannot completely rule out sprinkles or even an isolated shower or two over the valley portion of Kern County Monday through Monday evening. I still feel the vast majority of locations will receive no measurable precipitation whatsoever. If a shower or two does occur, less than .10 is all that would accumulate.
By Tuesday, the low will open up into a trough and will move into the Desert Southwest. On Tuesday also is another low clipping northern California with the bulk of the energy moving into Nevada. This system poses no threat of precipitation for the valley, but will generate a cool northwest flow, lowering temperatures towards where they should be this time of year.
Another low shows up on models for Friday night and Saturday. Models vary considerably on this one and the potential for weather for central California. One model shows this feature moving through northern and central California Saturday with a chance of showers. Others show it moving inland much further south, leaving California under a ridge of high pressure. At any rate, we’ll see how models come to grips with this storm during the week.
The medium range outlook still favors a small chance of rain between the fourth and the tenth.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds this morning. Variable mid and high level clouds this afternoon through Sunday. Mostly cloudy Sunday night through Monday night with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers, especially in the south valley. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 90/56/88/56/83 | Reedley 91/56/87/57/81 | Dinuba 89/55/86/57/82 | |
Porterville 90/56/87/58/81 | Lindsay 89/55/87/58/81 | Delano 91/59/88/58/80 | |
Bakersfield 92/62/87/60/80 | Taft 89/64/87/62/79 | Arvin 92/60/88/60/79 | |
Lamont 92/60/88/59/80 | Pixley 91/57/88/59/80 | Tulare 89/55/88/56/80 | |
Woodlake 90/55/88/57/81 | Hanford 91/58/88/58/81 | Orosi 89/56/87/57/81 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 54/79 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 52/81 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 52/83 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 52/79 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 52/75 |
Two Week Outlook: May 4 through May 10: In the broad view, predominantly low pressure will cover the western U.S. and off shore waters. There is a greater than average risk of showers sometime during this period. Temperatures should be close to seasonal values.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Sunday morning. Winds Sunday afternoon through Monday night will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times with locally stronger gusts. Expect light winds to return Tuesday.
Rain: A cut off low will pass through southern California Sunday night through Monday night. the Kern County mountains should add enough lift to the atmosphere for a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms there. There is a small risk of sprinkles or isolated light showers over the valley floor with the greatest risk being near the mountains of Kern County. Even there, however, the chance of anything measurable is only about 20% or less. Dry weather will return Tuesday and continue through Friday. Models for Friday night and Saturday diverge considerably. One model shows a low center moving right through central California Saturday for a chance of showers while others show the low moving far enough south to keep the forecast for next weekend dry. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast for Friday and Saturday, but this is a low confidence forecast.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/65% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/55%
Actual Humidity April 26, 2019: Delano, 84%/26%, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.73, Parlier 1.57, Blackwell 1.76, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.75, Orange Cove 1.53, Porterville 1.63, Delano 1.63. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 68, Blackwell 70, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 69, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 98/36. Average Temperatures: 78/50
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 72 +43
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 65.3 +5.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.10. Month to Date: .39 -.46
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.94, or -.10. Month to Date: .05 -.42
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:09 am Sunset: 7:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:33
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 58 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 97 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 59 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 95 / 70 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 60 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 121 9.09 70 13.06 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 101 8.00 67 11.98 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 104 6.91 61 11.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 90 7.22 66 10.96 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 90 6.73 64 10.57 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 83 4.70 51 9.22 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.94 98 3.93 65 6.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 176 1.13 26 4.29 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.31 102 7.13 59 12.11 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.10 116 9.62 79 12.11 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.53 109 6.01 45 13.33 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/April 29