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Forecast

May 1, 2019/report

May 1, 2019

Summary: The overall pattern still indicates a large trough of low pressure stretching from western Canada southward into the interior western U.S.  Meanwhile, upper level high pressure resides just off the California coast.  This has us in a west/northwest flow at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere which is generating upslope clouds against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains.  They cover most of the valley portion of Kern County.  At last report, Bakersfield was reporting overcast conditions at 4,500 feet.  These clouds will slowly burn off during the later morning and afternoon hours.

 

The high off shore will begin to move inland Thursday and Friday, resulting in a warming trend.  Significant warming, such as we had last week, will not occur this time around.  In the meantime, a large closed low is roughly 800 miles west of the central coast.  Models show this system moving slowly towards the coast over the next 72 hours.  By Sunday, models show the center of circulation just off the central coast then inland through possibly southern California Monday through Tuesday.  This system will be moisture starved.  Even so, with the combination of very strong daytime heating this time of year and dynamics in the atmosphere created by the low, we cannot rule out scattered light showers Monday into Tuesday mainly in the mountains.  Still, I would put a small chance of showers over the valley floor with even a minimal chance of isolated thunderstorms.

 

Temperatures will drop considerably, especially Monday through Tuesday, as readings plummet into the low to mid 70s.

 

After Tuesday, upper level  high pressure will become reestablished along the west coast with a ridge extending northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and a dry low over southern California or possibly northwest Mexico.  This would maintain near to marginally above average temperatures and dry conditions for the remainder of next week.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear today with the exception of Kern County this morning which will be mostly cloudy this morning but clear this afternoon.  Mostly clear tonight through Saturday with occasional periods of high clouds.  Partly cloudy Saturday night.  variable cloudiness Sunday through Tuesday with a small chance of scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night.  becoming mostly clear Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 78/47/83/49/84 Reedley 77/47/83/49/83 Dinuba 76/46/82/48/83
Porterville 79/47/84/50/85 Lindsay 78/46/84/49/84 Delano 79/50/83/52/85
Bakersfield 79/55/83/56/86 Taft 78/57/83/58/87 Arvin 77/53/83/54/87
Lamont 78/51/84/54/87 Pixley 78/48/83/50/84 Tulare 78/46/83/48/83
Woodlake 78/46/83/49/84 Hanford 78/47/83/49/84 Orosi 78/47/84/49/84

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

53/86

Sunday

Variable clouds

55/77

Monday

Chance of showers

55/73

Tuesday

Chance of showers

56/76

Wednesday

Mostly clear

50/82

 

Two Week Outlook:  May 8 through May 14:  This model indicates the pattern will remain fairly active over the west.  Even though the chance of rain remains low, it certainly cannot be eliminated.  Temperatures will run marginally above average.

 

May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal.  Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.

 

May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July.  For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Saturday.

 

Rain: The next chance of measurable rain, small as it may be, will arrive Sunday night through Tuesday in the form of a closed low which may be centered just off the central coast early next week.  The main threat of precipitation will be over the higher elevations surrounding the valley, however, this system may add enough lift to the atmosphere to sustain scattered light showers over the valley floor with the risk of isolated thunderstorms.  This will be another one of those situations where most locations remain dry with a few locations picking up measurable rain.

 

Dry weather will return by Tuesday night and continue for the remainder of next week.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/70% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/60%

Actual Humidity April 30, 2019: Delano, 79%/33%, Porterville, 85%/NA%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.81, Parlier 1.64, Blackwell 1.85, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.72, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.58, Delano 1.66. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 71, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 72, Delano 73

Record Temperatures: 101/38. Average Temperatures: 80/51

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 91 +55

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for April so far: 65.8 +5.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.20. Month to Date: .39 -.56

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  6.00, or -.09.  Month to Date: .11 -.41

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:04 am  Sunset: 7:48 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:41

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  77 /  49 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  74 /  53 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  79 /  49 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  77 /  48 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  75 /  58 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  78 /  51 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  76 /  51 /  0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.79   120    9.09    69    13.15    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   12.06   100    8.00    66    12.08    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   11.87   103    6.91    60    11.48    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    9.84    89    7.22    65    11.06    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    9.47    89    6.73    63    10.67    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    7.67    82    4.70    50     9.32    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    6.00    99    3.93    65     6.09     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    7.55   175    1.22    28     4.31     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   12.31   101    7.13    58    12.19    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.11   116    9.62    79    12.17    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   14.77   110    6.01    45    13.41    13.95

 

Next report:  Thursday morning/May 2