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May 3, 2019/report

May 3, 2019

Summary: Upper level high pressure blankets the eastern Pacific Ocean and extends inland over most of the western one-third of the U.S. and into the Desert Southwest.  A closed low continues to develop several hundred miles west of the central coast.  Models show this system moving steadily eastward, eventually centering just off the south central California coast.  The counter clockwise circulation around the low will encompass all of California.  If models are correct, and the center of circulation is nearby, scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over all of the mountain areas, including the Coast Range.  There will be a minimal chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor as early as Sunday afternoon, continuing through Monday night.  the low may add enough bounce to the atmosphere for possible development of isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor, especially Monday afternoon and evening.


A strong push of marine air will surge over the coastal mountains and into the valley late Saturday afternoon and night which, in part, will lead to much cooler weather Sunday, but more especially Monday when the coolest air aloft will be overhead.  Freezing levels which are currently about 12,000 feet will drop down to 7,000 to 8,000 feet by Sunday afternoon.


The low is projected to scoot off to the southeast Tuesday with a shadow of itself over Arizona by Tuesday afternoon.  Models are all over the place in developing a particular pattern for Thursday and Friday of next week.  We could see a ridge of upper level high pressure stretching into northwest Canada while a new low center develops over northern and central California for a chance of showers.  For now, there is too much model disparity to accurately make that call at this time.  A chance of showers over the mountain areas Thursday and Friday seems to be an appropriate call with improving weather over the weekend.


Forecast: Other than occasional high, thin clouds it will be mostly clear through Saturday.  Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night and breezy.  Variable cloudiness Sunday and Monday with a chance of scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms.  A slight chance of showers Monday night.  becoming partly cloudy Tuesday.  Variable cloudiness Tuesday night and Wednesday.   Mostly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday with a slight chance of showers,  mainly near the foothills.


Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 86/51/87/52/76 Reedley 87/51/87/52/77 Dinuba 85/50/86/52/75
Porterville 87/51/88/52/77 Lindsay 87/50/87/52/77 Delano 87/53/54/78
Bakersfield 88/58/87/57/75 Taft 88/60/87/58/75 Arvin 88/53/87/55/78
Lamont 87/56/87/56/78 Pixley 86/51/87/52/77 Tulare 85/50/86/52/76
Woodlake 86/50/87/52/76 Hanford 88/53/87/55/77 Orosi 85/51/86/52/75


Seven Day Forecast:


Chance of showers



Partly cloudy



Partly cloudy



Slight chance of showers



Slight chance of showers



Two Week Outlook:  May 9 through May 15:  This model indicates the pattern will remain fairly active over the west.  Even though the chance of rain remains low, it certainly cannot be eliminated.  Temperatures will run marginally above average.


May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal.  Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.


May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July.  For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.


Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Saturday morning and mainly out of the northwest.  Winds Saturday afternoon and evening will be out of the west to southwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts and possible areas of blowing dust.  Winds Sunday through Monday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, especially near showers or thunderstorms.


Rain: Some models have speeded up the arrival time of a closed low which is still well off shore.  Sunday during the day is the best estimate for precipitation.  Some models place the center of circulation almost right overhead late Sunday afternoon through Monday.  This will certainly spawn the formation of scattered light showers over the mountain areas. Isolated thunderstorms will no doubt develop, as well.


Over the valley floor, it appears some locations will remain dry but others will pick up precipitation as the pattern becomes a patchwork affair.  My feeling is this system is moisture starved enough so that locations that do record measurable rain will generally end up with less than .10.  However, locally more is certainly possible, especially if isolated thunderstorms occur in which case .25 to .33 cannot be ruled out.


The center of circulation will begin to accelerate southeastward Monday night into the Desert Southwest, ending the chance for precipitation after the late evening hours.


Later next week is also in doubt now as some models are portraying the formation of a new low over northern and central California with at least a chance of showers over the mountains and possibly the valley floor.  Other models, however, paint the formation of this low further east, resulting in generally dry weather.


Still, at least a chance of showers is possible for next Thursday and Friday.  For now, next weekend and beyond look okay as high pressure takes over.


Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 30s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/60% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 15%/50%

Actual Humidity May 2, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 87%/23%


Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.78, Parlier 1.61, Blackwell 1.78, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.69, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.55, Delano 1.62. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available


Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 68, Blackwell 72, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 73, Delano 70

Record Temperatures: 99/38. Average Temperatures: 80/51

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 93 +52

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 65.3 +0.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.25. Month to Date: .00 -.05

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  6.00, or -.11.  Month to Date: .00 -.02

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:02 am  Sunset: 7:50 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:45

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  86 /  49 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  82 /  57 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  84 /  54 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  83 /  49 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  82 /  70 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  80 /  59 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1654 /  80 /  59 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  81 /  52 / 0.00 /


Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.79   120    9.09    69    13.20    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   12.06    99    8.00    66    12.14    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   11.87   103    6.91    60    11.54    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    9.84    89    7.22    65    11.11    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    9.47    88    6.73    63    10.72    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    7.67    82    4.70    50     9.36    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    6.00    98    3.93    64     6.11     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    7.55   175    1.22    28     4.32     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   12.31   101    7.13    58    12.23    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.11   116    9.62    79    12.20    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   14.77   110    6.01    45    13.45    13.95


Next report:  Saturday morning/May 4