May 5, 2019
Summary: Even though skies are mostly clear over the valley this morning, the first bands of cloud cover and shower activity are skirting the central California coast. This storm is rather compact and is forecast to park just west of Santa Maria this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to break out over the Kern County mountains, the coast range, and the Sierra Nevada. I would not discount the possibility of widely scattered light showers over the valley floor beginning roughly midafternoon. A slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two exists, as well.
Most models show the center of circulation moving over Kern County Monday morning, meaning a pool of relatively cool, unstable air will be right above us. The risk for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountain areas will be relatively high through late Monday evening.
Over the valley floor, there may be enough bounce to the atmosphere to continue the risk of widely scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms. Most locations will record less than .10. Some may remain dry. There is a small chance, however, that isolated pockets that happen to be in the path of an isolated thunderstorm could pick up a quick .25 to .33.
After midnight Monday night, the low center will be far enough to our east to take the chance of showers out of the forecast. The low will weaken further Tuesday morning as it moves into Arizona.
Dry weather will prevail Tuesday through Wednesday night. by Thursday morning, a new trough of low pressure will stretch from the Rockies to off the southern California coast. Some models project a new low center will develop southwest of Los Angeles. Models are in considerable disagreement on the possible impact on the valley. At the very least, below average temperatures will prevail. For now, it seems appropriate to forecast a small chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday through Friday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. The trough will cover the interior west into the Desert Southwest over the weekend next weekend, creating a northeast flow aloft which will aid in drying. The medium range outlook is also very muddy with possibly a low center nearby about the 15th with another about the 20th. These potential storms are too far out to forecast with any accuracy. Nevertheless, the two week outlook still shows a risk of showers, which seems to be appropriate at this time.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today with a chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Mostly cloudy tonight through Monday evening with a chance of widely scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms. Partly cloudy after midnight Monday night through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Wednesday night. variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday with a slight chance of isolated light showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday.
Temperatures:
High temperatures this afternoon will generally range in the upper 70s to the lower 80, falling into the low to mid 50s tonight. Highs Monday will generally only peak in the lower 70s, cooling into the low to mid 50s Monday night. Mid to upper 70s can be expected Tuesday.
Next report: Monday, May 6