Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

May 8, 2019/report

May 8, 2019

Summary: The marine layer along the coast is more than 3,000 feet deep.  Even though there is not a particularly strong on shore flow, the modified sea breeze has made its way to the valley floor overnight.  Infrared satellite imagery shows coastal low clouds moving through the Delta and into the lower Sacramento Valley.  Today will be the last day of relatively stable conditions for central California for a bit, anyway.  A rather odd pattern will develop from late Thursday through the weekend as we have a storm system sneaking in literally through the back door.  Upper level  high pressure is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and will ridge  northeastward into western Canada.  This will allow an elongated trough of low pressure to stretch from the northern Rockies to northern and central California by Thursday evening.

 

By early Friday, a new closed low will develop just off shore.  Models are actually quite bullish on this storm as far as the chance of precipitation goes as well as amounts of precip.  Some of the model information is probably overdone as some models indicate more than a half inch of rain north of Kern County and quarter inch plus totals over the valley portion of Kern County.

 

As previously stated, this is probably overblown, however with periods of showers and possible thunderstorms, locally significant precipitation cannot be ruled out.  The greatest risk for rain will be late Thursday night through Friday evening when the center of circulation will be in close proximity.  By early Saturday, most models show the center of circulation just west of Los Angeles then weakening and moving inland through extreme northern Baja and southern California Saturday night and Sunday morning.  By Sunday afternoon, the low will move into the Desert Southwest.

 

Monday and Tuesday of next week will see a return to stable weather as upper level high pressure builds in from the west.  Models indicate yet another trough of low pressure will this time dig from the Gulf of Alaska, reaching northern and central California about the middle of next week for at least a slight chance of showers, mainly over the mountain areas.  However, considering recent trends, this change also deserves careful scrutiny.

 

Models going out through May 21 still show predominantly low pressure over and off the west coast for a greater than usual chance of precipitation, especially over the mountain areas.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Thursday afternoon leading to a chance of showers by evening. Periods of showers will become likely Thursday night through Friday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms.  A chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday, mainly during the morning.  Mostly to  partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and Saturday night with a slight chance of showers, mainly near the foothills.  Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday morning.  Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a slight chance of showers.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 81/56/82/57/73 Reedley 82/56/83/56/75 Dinuba 81/55/82/57/73
Porterville 82/57/84/57/75 Lindsay 83/54/83/56/74 Delano 83/57/84/58/75
Bakersfield 83/61/84/61/74 Taft 83/62/83/63/73 Arvin 84/57/84/59/73
Lamont 83/58/84/59/75 Pixley 82/57/84/58/74 Tulare 82/55/83/57/73
Woodlake 82/56/83/56/74 Hanford 82/56/83/56/75 Orosi 82/54/83/56/73

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Showers likely

61/65

Sunday

Mostly cloudy

57/78

Monday

Partly cloudy

58/83

Tuesday

Mostly clear

53/84

Wednesday

PM showers

55/77

 

Two Week Outlook:  May 14 through May 20:  This model continues to show a broad expanse of low pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western U.S.  it’s possible periods of showers could occur during this time frame with temperatures largely below seasonal values.

 

May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal.  Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.

 

May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July.  For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.

 

Winds:  Winds today and tonight will be generally at or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest this afternoon and evening.  Winds Thursday through Friday will be variable at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts near showers or thunderstorms.  Winds Friday night through Saturday will generally range between 5 and 15 MPH with stronger gusts mainly near showers and thunderstorms.

 

Rain: A rather oddball weather pattern detailed above will begin to affect the valley as early as tomorrow afternoon.  It appears the chance of measurable rain on the valley floor from this event will be high.  There are some models which have gone bonkers over precipitation amounts, indicating as much as an inch of rain on the valley floor.  I do believe this is overdone, but even so, there will be periods of showers beginning possibly as early as late Thursday afternoon and possibly continuing well into Saturday.  The greatest risk for rain will be later Thursday night through Friday evening when the center of the storm will be just to our west.  Rainfall amounts upwards to .25 anywhere on the valley floor seems plausible.  Locally, .33 to .50 will be likely if thunderstorms break out.  The chance of showers will begin to decrease Saturday afternoon, ending Saturday night with the possible exception of some lingering showers, mainly near the mountains and in Kern County Saturday night.  Sunday through Tuesday night will be dry, however another trough, this time from the Gulf of Alaska, will drive southeastward into our area about the middle of  next week.  For now, I’ll call for a slight chance of showers on this one.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 35%/70%

Actual Humidity May 7, 2019: Delano, 85%/40% Porterville, 78%/36%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 50%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.73, Parlier 1.62, Blackwell 1.80, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.71, Orange Cove 1.63, Porterville 1.68, Delano 1.69. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 68, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 73, Delano 72

Record Temperatures: 101/39. Average Temperatures: 82/53

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 108 +52

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 67.1 +1.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.34. Month to Date: .00 -.14

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  6.00, or -.15.  Month to Date: .00 -.06

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:57 am  Sunset: 7:54 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:54

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  81 /  52 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  79 /  54 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  81 /  55 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  81 /  50 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  80 /  58 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  79 /  57 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 /  79 /  54 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  77 /  50 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.79   119    9.09    68    13.30    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   12.06    98    8.00    65    12.26    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   11.87   102    6.91    59    11.69    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    9.84    88    7.22    64    11.23    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    9.47    88    6.73    62    10.81    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    7.67    81    4.70    50     9.45    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    6.00    98    3.93    64     6.15     6.47

BISHOP                           M       M     M       M     M        M     5.18

SALINAS                       0.08   12.40   101    7.13    58    12.30    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.12   115    9.62    78    12.26    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   14.82   110    6.01    44    13.53    13.95

Next report:  Wednesday afternoon