May 9, 2019
Summary: A weak upper low near the southern Nevada/northern Arizona border is throwing some mid and high level clouds over the southern half of the valley. However, this is not the storm which will begin to affect central California later this afternoon into Saturday. An elongated trough of low pressure stretches from Montana and will dig southwestward into central California tonight through Friday night. models have backed off on potential amounts of precipitation with this event which is no surprise. For ag interests, though, there is risk of locally heavy rain tonight through Friday night if scattered thunderstorms occur and this is a definite possibility. Models indicate a high risk of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and also enough light, or up and down motion to the atmosphere, to sustain at least isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor. The greatest risk of this occurring will be Friday afternoon and evening but even an isolated nocturnal thunderstorm is possible.
The low will cut off right over central California Friday then will drift to a pos9ition near Santa Barbara Friday night, maintaining very unsettled weather over the central valley. By Saturday morning, the storm will have moved west of San Diego, greatly reducing the chance of rain for the valley with the possible exception of Kern County.
By Sunday, a much weaker version of this storm will be crossing into northern Baja and eventually into the Desert Southwest. Weak upper level high pressure will build in from the west Sunday afternoon, dominating our weather through Tuesday night. on Wednesday, a trough of low pressure will dig southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California. At this point, it appears any active weather will be confined to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and in northern California, but as the trough progresses through California, cooler and locally breezier conditions can be expected Thursday.
For next Friday through next weekend, a flat zonal flow will develop over the eastern Pacific and into California. The main storm track will be in the Pacific Northwest and far northern California.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning. Increasing clouds later this afternoon with a slight chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after around 4:00pm. Variable cloudiness tonight through Friday night with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers Saturday morning, mainly in Kern County. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning with the exception of Kern and Tulare Counties where mostly cloudy conditions will linger. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. variable cloudiness Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/58/71/57/79 | Reedley 82/57/72/57/80 | Dinuba 82/57/71/56/78 | |
| Porterville 84/56/73/57/80 | Lindsay 83/56/71/56/79 | Delano 84/57/73/58/80 | |
| Bakersfield 83/62/72/59/78 | Taft 84/62/83/60/77 | Arvin 84/58/72/58/78 | |
| Lamont 83/58/73/58/79 | Pixley 83/57/72/58/79 | Tulare 83/56/72/57/78 | |
| Woodlake 83/56/72/56/79 | Hanford 83/57/72/58/79 | Orosi 82/55/72/56/79 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 57/81 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/85 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 56/86 |
Wednesday
Variable clouds 55/80 |
Thursday
Variable clouds 52/78 |
Two Week Outlook: May 14 through May 20: This model continues to show a broad expanse of low pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western U.S. it’s possible periods of showers could occur during this time frame with temperatures largely below seasonal values.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 15 MPH today with the exception of the far western side of the valley where localized gusts to 30 MPH are possible below some of the canyons along the Coast Range. Winds tonight through Friday night will be variable to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: There will be a small chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be likely tonight through Friday night with a chance of showers Saturday morning, mainly in Kern County. Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts from this system will vary widely from place to place, ranging from a few hundredths to possibly more than .50. When and if thunderstorms develop, the greatest risk will be Friday afternoon and evening, especially from Fresno County south. Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon and continue through at least Tuesday night. a trough of low pressure will dig southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California Tuesday and Wednesday. At this juncture, it appears any shower activity will be confined to the Sierra Nevada and northern California. Still, this system deserves study so this forecast is subject to change.
The two week outlook is still adamant about an increasing chance of rain from the 18 through the 20, so we’ll take a wait and see on this outlook, as well.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity May 8, 2019: Delano, 80%/41% Porterville, 83%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.72, Parlier 1.63, Blackwell 1.82, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.70, Orange Cove 1.64, Porterville 1.69, Delano 1.70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 68, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 74, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 101/39. Average Temperatures: 82/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 114 +54
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 67.5 +1.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.35. Month to Date: .00 -.15
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.00, or -.16. Month to Date: .00 -.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:56 am Sunset: 7:55 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 83 / 58 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 119 9.09 68 13.32 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 98 8.00 65 12.28 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 101 6.91 59 11.71 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 87 7.22 64 11.25 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 88 6.73 62 10.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 81 4.70 50 9.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.00 97 3.93 64 6.16 6.47
BISHOP M M M M M M 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.40 101 7.13 58 12.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.12 115 9.62 78 12.27 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.82 109 6.01 44 13.54 13.95
Next report: Friday morning/May 10