May 10, 2019
Summary: Forecast models over the past several days have been amazingly accurate in the development and movement of the compact but rather robust low center currently moving through central California. As of the time of this writing, the center of circulation was almost directly over Hanford. Locally heavy thunderstorms are currently pounding western Fresno County, portions of Kings County, and wester Tulare County while locally heavy showers are occurring over Kern County. Rainfall amounts thus far have varied from very little to impressive. So far this morning, the heaviest reading I’ve seen is .84 at Lamont. Other rainfall totals are listed below in the rainfall discussion.
The track of this storm, which is now a cut off low, should be just west of LAX tonight then further south and eventually inland through northwest Mexico Sunday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease by midday over Fresno County but the bottom line is, the further south you go, the greater the risk of precipitation for the remainder of the day in the form of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. By later tonight, the center of circulation should be far enough to the south to take the chance of precipitation out of the forecast. It’s possible a few lingering showers could last into Sunday morning near the foothills of Tulare County.
By Monday, a ridge of high pressure will build rapidly inland via the eastern Pacific for mostly clear skies and a warming trend. The south valley today will probably not even reach 70 degrees but by Sunday, readings will jump into the mid 80s with mid to upper 80s under that high Monday through Tuesday.
The pattern will change once again Wednesday as a trough of low pressure digs soughward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California. Models vary a great deal on the potential for precipitation from this system. One of the main models shows showers over northern California and the Sierra Nevada while the European Model indicates there’s a reasonable chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday for the valley. For now, we will just add a slight chance of showers to the forecast for this timeframe and see how things play out. At the very least, another cooling trend will occur during the latter part of the week.
A weak ridge will build in Friday through next weekend. Some of the medium range models this weekend are showing a rather robust low pressure system over California about the 21st which is reflected in the two week outlook which still calls for a well above average chance of showers.
Forecast: In Fresno County, expect showers and thunderstorms this morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. South of Fresno County, showers and thunderstorms will be likely today. Locally heavy rain is possible, especially where thunderstorms occur. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in Kern County tonight into Saturday. Mostly to partly cloudy skies north of Kern County tonight through Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Saturday night through Sunday with the exception of Tulare and Kern Counties which will have lingering cloudiness through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday leading to a small chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/55/82/56/87 | Reedley 72/56/82/56/87 | Dinuba 71/55/81/56/86 | |
| Porterville 70/55/82/57/87 | Lindsay 71/54/82/55/86 | Delano 69/57/81/59/85 | |
| Bakersfield 68/59/80/60/86 | Taft 68/58/80/61/85 | Arvin 67/57/79/61/87 | |
| Lamont 68/58/81/59/86 | Pixley 70/56/80/57/85 | Tulare 71/55/82/56/85 | |
| Woodlake 71/55/82/56/86 | Hanford 72/55/81/57/87 | Orosi 71/54/83/56/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 57/87 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 58/89 |
Wednesday
PM showers possible 57/83 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 56/79 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 52/78 |
Two Week Outlook: May 17 through May 23: This model continues to show a broad expanse of low pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western U.S. it’s possible periods of showers could occur during this time frame with temperatures largely below seasonal values.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be variable today and tonight to 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts near showers and thunderstorms. Winds Saturday through Monday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH, mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: This cut off low, even though compact in size, is packing a whallop, especially considering the time of year. A few locations have picked up nearly an inch of precipitation while others have recorded only a few hundredths and north of Fresno County, some locations picked up nothing at all. Some 24 hour rain totals as of 6:00am were: .26 at Bakersfield, .47 at Taft, Lamont .84, Delano .04, buttonwillow .12, Visalia .02, and Fresno .02. Of course, these totals are rapidly changing due to ongoing showers and thunderstorms.
The chance for rain will actually begin to decrease by midday over Fresno County with the wet/dry line moving slowly southward. However, the south valley will still have a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours. By later tonight, the center of circulation will be far enough to our southwest to take the chance of showers out of the forecast. Some lingering showers could occur over the foothills of Kern County through Saturday morning, but otherwise, this event will be over. Rainfall amounts from this point on, especially south of Fresno County, will range from a few hundredths to as much as .75 where thunderstorms occur. In Kern county, persistent rain ranging from light to heavy is occurring south of Bakersfield which has already received almost an inch of precipitation in some locations and more locally heavy rain will fall over the next hour or two.
Dry weather will continue Saturday night through at least Tuesday night. A new storm will dig southward out of the Gulf of Alaska, affect central California Wednesday and Thursday. Models range from showing dry conditions to a decent risk of showers, especially north of Kern County. For now, the best course of action will be to add a minimal chance of showers to the forecast for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday and see if models can come to more agreement as we move closer to the event.
Dry weather will prevail Friday into the following week. Medium range models are showing a rather robust low over California about the 21. Theoretically, that would create a chance of showers but for now we’ll just mention it as it’s far too early to get an accurate grip on the situation.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 65%/90%
Actual Humidity May 9, 2019: Delano, 83%/45% Porterville, 84%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.67, Parlier 1.61, Blackwell 1.82, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.70, Orange Cove 1.62, Porterville 1.69, Delano 1.71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 68, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 74, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 99/41. Average Temperatures: 83/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 121 +57
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 68.0 +1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.48 season. or -1.36. Month to Date: .01 -.16
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.01, or -.16. Month to Date: .01 -.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:55 am Sunset: 7:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 59 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 81 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 71 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 81 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 72 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 118 9.09 68 13.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 98 8.00 65 12.30 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 101 6.91 59 11.74 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 87 7.22 64 11.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 87 6.73 62 10.84 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 81 4.70 50 9.49 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.00 97 3.93 64 6.17 6.47
BISHOP 0.04 7.59 174 1.22 28 4.36 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.40 101 7.13 58 12.33 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.12 115 9.62 78 12.28 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.82 109 6.01 44 13.55 13.95
Next report: Saturday morning/May 11