Happy Mother’s Day!
May 11, 2019
Summary: The grand champions of rainfall yesterday, at least at the stations I monitor, were 1.12 at Arvin and 1,16 at Stratford. Rainfall amounts varied widely. For example, Porterville received just a trace of rain. Lemoore received .43. Just down the road at Hanford, no measurable rain was reported. Such is the beauty of cut off lows. That cut off low is now centered just west of Ensenada, Mexico. The counterclockwise circulation is still tugging scattered showers over southern Kern County and points southward. But as far as the bulk of the valley is concerned, this event is over.
The freezing level over Vandenberg last night dropped down to 8, 600 feet, but as upper level high pressure rapidly builds in from the west, temperatures will rise into the lower 80s this afternoon and push the 90 degree mark at the warmer locations Sunday through Tuesday as the high moves through.
The pattern for late Wednesday through Friday of next week is still inconclusive due to model differences. The GFS model indicates any precipitation from a trough will remain over northern California while other models suggest there will be an excellent chance of precipitation, especially Thursday through Friday. For now, the best course of action is to maintain a chance of showers in the forecast for this time frame. Even if it does not rain, temperatures will fall below average as the main portion of this trough has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska.
Weak high pressure will follow for next weekend for dry weather and a warming trend. However, models for around the 20 through the 21 are indicating another robust for the season low will move inland, so this very active May we’ve had so far shows every sign of continuing.
The two week model gives a high chance of rain over the interior west but does not rule out a chance of showers over central California, as well.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday night with at least a small chance of showers, especially late Thursday through Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/56/89/58/90 | Reedley 83/56/88/58/89 | Dinuba 83/55/88/57/87 | |
| Porterville 84/56/90/58/90 | Lindsay 84/54/89/57/90 | Delano 84/58/89/59/90 | |
| Bakersfield 84/62/89/63/90 | Taft 83/62/90/63/90 | Arvin 84/59/89/60/91 | |
| Lamont 83/60/89/61/91 | Pixley 83/57/88/59/90 | Tulare 83/56/88/59/89 | |
| Woodlake 83/56/88/57/89 | Hanford 84/57/89/59/91 | Orosi 83/55/88/57/89 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 58/88 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 57/84 |
Thursday
PM showers 56/79 |
Friday
Chance of showers 55/76 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 51/80 |
Two Week Outlook: May 17 through May 23: The main signature on this model is a rather high risk of precipitation over the interior west with a lesser chance over central California, but a chance nonetheless. With predominately low pressure over the western states, temperatures will be generally below average.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or below 15 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours. Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Wednesday. Models are all over the place on trying to figure out a cohesive pattern for Thursday through Friday. Models range from completely dry conditions to a high risk of showers. With this much model differences, for now it’s wise to keep a chance of showers in the forecast with the highest risk being Thursday afternoon through Friday. This system is nothing like the one that just moved through as a cut off low. This is a trough from the Gulf of Alaska, meaning the highest risk of showers will be further north. Dry weather will return next weekend, but models still show predominately low pressure over the western states for week after next for possible unsettled weather further down the road.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/70%
Actual Humidity May 10, 2019: Delano, 100%/57% Porterville, 92%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.51, Parlier 1.53, Blackwell 1.75, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.56, Orange Cove 1.52, Porterville 1.57, Delano 1.56. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 68, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 75, Delano 73
Record Temperatures: 100/40. Average Temperatures: 83/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 123 +55
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 67.9 +1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.49 season. or -1.36. Month to Date: .02 -.16
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.32, or +.15. Month to Date: .32 +.24
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:54 am Sunset: 7:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 58 / 0.02 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 76 / 60 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 56 / 0.43 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 75 / 59 / 0.32 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 75 / 57 / 0.03 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1407 / M / M / 0.04 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 59 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 70 / 55 / 0.52 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 118 9.09 68 13.36 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 98 8.00 65 12.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 101 6.91 59 11.77 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 87 7.22 64 11.30 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 9.49 87 6.73 62 10.85 11.50
HANFORD T 7.67 81 4.70 49 9.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.31 6.32 102 3.93 64 6.17 6.47
BISHOP 0.11 8.09 186 1.22 28 4.36 5.18
SALINAS T 12.40 100 7.13 58 12.34 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 14.12 115 9.62 78 12.29 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 14.83 109 6.01 44 13.56 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/May 13