May 14, 2019
Summary: The weather pattern which is currently evolving over the eastern Pacific is more reminiscent of January or February as opposed to mid May. A very large trough is extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska to off the northern and central California coast. Models are very consistent in showing the formation of a strong low off the Oregon and northern California coast and showing it swinging inland Wednesday night and Thursday. It’s hard to believe that in mid May more than two feet of snow could fall over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, but considering the strong dynamics of the storm, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
By tomorrow at this time, an impressive plume of moisture will be engulfing northern California. This plume will eventually move into central California Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Precipitation amounts could potentially be very significant even on the valley floor. Some models portray more than .50 in many areas north of Kern County and even over the valley portion of Kern County, .25 to .33 is possible. Once the cold front moves through Thursday morning, cold, unstable air will settle in in association with a cold upper low. With intense daytime heating and a very high sun angle, the environment will be ripe for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. If these storms do form, localized heavy rain and small hail would be the result.
The low will move into Nevada later Thursday night, allowing a temporary weak ridge of high pressure to take over Friday and Saturday.
The next storm to move out of the main trough of low pressure will arrive Saturday night through Sunday. Models are also quite impressive on the potential for another significant rain event on the valley floor and snow in the mountains. It’s a bit too early to comfortably forecast precipitation amounts, but for moisture sensitive crops, this will not be a good weekend.
Also, yet a third low will move out of the trough around Tuesday of next week, possibly spreading more showers over central California with the possibility of more thunderstorms. As you might imagine, as we revert back to a winter type pattern, temperatures will fall to well below average for mid May with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s Thursday and Friday and only marginal warming over the first part of the weekend.
In the longer term, after Tuesday models diverge quite a bit. One shows a cut off low forming off the southern California coast while the two week model is still indicating a high probability of rain for much of northern and central California between the 21 and the 27.
Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy later today. Mostly cloudy tonight and Wednesday. Periods of rain Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Showers Thursday afternoon into the evening hours with a good chance of locally heavy thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers after midnight Thursday. Becoming partly cloudy Friday through Saturday morning. Increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon. Periods of rain Saturday night through Sunday with a chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. A decreasing chance of showers Saturday night. partly cloudy Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to another chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 86/57/77/55/66 | Reedley 86/57/78/56/67 | Dinuba 86/56/78/56/66 | |
Porterville 88/56/78/56/68 | Lindsay 87/55/77/55/67 | Delano 88/60/78/56/68 | |
Bakersfield 88/63/80/58/69 | Taft 87/66/82/60/69 | Arvin 89/62/82/57/69 | |
Lamont 88/62/82/57/70 | Pixley 87/61/79/57/69 | Tulare 86/58/78/56/67 | |
Woodlake 87/57/77/56/68 | Hanford 88/59/78/56/68 | Orosi 87/57/78/56/67 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
Partly cloudy 50/69 |
Saturday
Pm rain possible 49/71 |
Sunday
Showers likely 55/68 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 48/73 |
Tuesday
Showers possible 48/71 |
Two Week Outlook: May 21 through May 28: This model predicts above average precipitation for much of the western U.S. with the main bulls eye at northern California. The risk of very late season will continue to be relatively high during this period with below average temperatures.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 15 MPH range today with local gusts to 25 to 35 MPH possible late this afternoon along the far west side. Wednesday, winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest with periods ranging to 15 to 25 MPH at times, decreasing to 10 to 15 MPH at times Thursday night and Friday.
Rain: The comparison to a mid winter weather pattern is striking on models this morning. A rapidly deepening trough of low pressure will spread rain over the entire valley Wednesday night with periods of rain continuing through Thursday morning. Models also show a very unstable environment Thursday afternoon and evening which means there will be a risk of scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail. Rainfall amounts from this system will vary of course, the way they always do, but generally speaking, the potential for all areas of the San Joaquin Valley getting a good soaking is certainly there. Half-inch plus totals are possible north of Kern County with even .25 to .33 over the valley portion of Kern County from Wednesday night through Thursday night. totals could be quite impressive in locations that do happen to get nailed by a thunderstorm.
The action will taper off later Thursday night with dry weather Friday through Saturday morning. The chance for showers and possible thunderstorms will increase again Saturday night through Sunday with an unusually high risk of fairly significant precipitation. There will be a brief break Sunday night and Monday with a new low moving in around Monday night or Tuesday. There are some models that are very bullish on this system bringing significant amounts of rain to central California. After Tuesday night, models diverge somewhat but show the possibility of a few days of dry weather. The two week model, though, is painting a high risk of showers between the 21 and the 27.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/75% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/55%
Actual Humidity May 13, 2019: Delano, NA% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.46, Parlier 1.54, Blackwell 1.65, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.55, Orange Cove 1.55, Porterville 1.55, Delano 1.50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 70, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 75, Delano 74
Record Temperatures: 102/43. Average Temperatures: 84/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 149 +68
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 69.2 +2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.49 season. or -1.40. Month to Date: .02 -.20
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.32, or +.13. Month to Date: .32 +.22
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:51 am Sunset: 7:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 92 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 87 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 85 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 85 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 118 9.09 68 13.41 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 97 8.00 65 12.39 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 100 6.91 58 11.84 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 87 7.22 64 11.37 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.49 87 6.73 62 10.89 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 80 4.70 49 9.55 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.32 102 3.93 63 6.19 6.47
BISHOP M M M M M M 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.40 100 7.13 58 12.37 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.12 115 9.62 78 12.32 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 14.83 109 6.01 44 13.60 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/May 14