May 15, 2019
Summary: Even though temperatures are milder this morning, running in the low 60s near sunrise, temperature outcomes will be cooler today due to heavy cloud cover and a surge of marine air. We remain on track for a major Pacific storm to begin to affect central California by late afternoon. As low pressure strengthens off the northern California coast, showers will begin to break out along the Sierra Nevada with even the possibility of a few showers over the valley floor, mainly from Fresno County northward, by mid to late afternoon. Precipitation will get going in earnest later tonight as a strong cold front moves down the valley. High resolution models are still indicating more than .50 of precipitation from Fresno County northward, sloping to around .25 over the Kern County portion of the valley floor.
The rain will continue into Thursday morning. As the front moves into Nevada, a cold, very unstable air mass will follow for more showers Thursday afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms will be a distinct possibility Thursday afternoon and evening, especially if we have breaks in the overcast which would allow the sun to begin to heat the ground. This, in turn, results in warm currents of air moving skyward. They then begin to do their dance with the cold air above the valley floor and voila! Thunderstorms are possible.
Any thunderstorm activity that does develop would be joined by localized heavy rain and small hail.
Showers will taper off late Thursday night, but I wouldn’t rule out a stray shower or two Friday morning. Models are showing a weak upper air disturbance moving through. A weak and fast moving ridge of high pressure will allow a temporary slot of dry weather Friday afternoon through Saturday.
A new low will be off the northern California coast Sunday with an increasing chance of showers through out the valley. Models really vary on this system’s intensity, but for now it does not appear it will be quit as robust as the current system.
Yesterday at this time, models were showing a strong low just west of San Francisco. That does not show up this morning. However, a broad area of low pressure is projected to engulf most of the western U.S. during the middle part of next week for a chance of showers and a continuation of below average temperatures.
Forecast: Cloudy this morning. A chance of scattered showers this afternoon, mainly from Fresno County north. Widespread showers tonight and Thursday morning. Showers Thursday afternoon and evening with a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Showers tapering off later Thursday night. a few lingering showers possible Friday morning near the foothills. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday. Showers becoming likely again Saturday night through Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night. becoming partly cloudy Monday with a chance of showers again late Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 76/56/67/51/68 | Reedley 76/55/67/51/68 | Dinuba 75/55/68/51/68 | |
| Porterville 79/55/68/50/69 | Lindsay 78/55/68/50/69 | Delano 79/56/68/52/69 | |
| Bakersfield 81/60/69/52/68 | Taft 80/60/69/53/67 | Arvin 81/58/69/52/67 | |
| Lamont 80/58/68/53/67 | Pixley 79/57/68/51/67 | Tulare 77/56/68/52/69 | |
| Woodlake 77/55/68/50/68 | Hanford 79/55/67/51/68 | Orosi 77/54/68/50/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 48/71 |
Sunday
Showers likely 53/68 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 48/72 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 49/74 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 48/71 |
Two Week Outlook: May 21 through May 28: This model predicts above average precipitation for much of the western U.S. with the main bulls eye at northern California. The risk of very late season will continue to be relatively high during this period with below average temperatures.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds later today will be out of the west/southwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Winds tonight through Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly near showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, decreasing to 5 to 12 MPH Saturday.
Rain: A chance of showers will begin to pick up later this afternoon, mainly from Fresno County north. The main event, however, will not arrive until later tonight as a strong cold front marches down the valley with widespread precipitation lasting through Thursday morning. The precipitation pattern will become more showery late Thursday morning through Thursday evening. If we have breaks in the overcast Thursday afternoon, the chance of scattered thunderstorms will begin to increase. Showers will taper off later Thursday night. precipitation amounts from this event will be significant, considering the time of year. Half inch plus totals are possible from Fresno County north and locally further south, sloping to near .25 over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will prevail Friday through most of Saturday. Look for the chance of showers to pick up again Saturday night with a relatively high risk of showers through Sunday night. isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. After Sunday, there are a great number of differences between models, but I do feel it’s important to place a minimal chance of showers in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. For Wednesday through Friday of next week, models show a broad area of low pressure over the western U.S. for a chance of unsettled weather, mainly over the surrounding mountains.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/85%
Actual Humidity May 14, 2019: Delano, 83%/31% Porterville, 81%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.49, Parlier 1.62, Blackwell 1.70, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.58, Orange Cove 1.59, Porterville 1.60, Delano 1.53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 70, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 76, Delano 74
Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 84/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 156 +70
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 69.3 +2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.49 season. or -1.42. Month to Date: .02 -.22
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.32, or +.12. Month to Date: .32 +.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:51 am Sunset: 8:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:07
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 85 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 88 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 88 / 55 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 60 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 86 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 85 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 118 9.09 68 13.43 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 97 8.00 64 12.41 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 100 6.91 58 11.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 86 7.22 63 11.39 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.49 87 6.73 62 10.91 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 80 4.70 49 9.56 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.32 102 3.93 63 6.20 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.09 184 1.25 28 4.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.40 100 7.13 58 12.38 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.12 115 9.62 78 12.33 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.83 109 6.01 44 13.61 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/May 15