May 18, 2019
Summary: We are literally in the lull before the storm. Satellite imagery depicts the situation rather well with a large winter-type storm off the Oregon/northern California coast. Under this low is a large swath of cloud cover which will arrive in central California later this morning. Some light showers might reach as far south as Fresno County by about 6:00pm or so.
A strong cold front will move through the valley late tonight and early Sunday. Models project widespread precipitation ahead and along of the frontal band. The rain will taper off into showers Sunday and Sunday night. the atmosphere looks to be similar to what we observed during the last storm with possibly strong lapse rates, meaning a good deal of dynamics in the atmosphere, for another round of scattered thunderstorms anytime from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening. This storm is quite large and the backside of it will not clear the Sierra Nevada until late Sunday night with showers possibly lasting into Monday morning.
Another brief lull will occur Monday afternoon and night before the next unusually cold Pacific storm arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. For now it appears the main dynamics with this system will be somewhat further north. Even so, central California will be on the southern boundary of the main circulation pattern so a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms seems possible.
Beyond Wednesday, a broad area of low pressure will stretch from northeast to southwest over the western states for a continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada with only a minimal chance of activity over the valley floor Thursday and Friday.
Next weekend, and well into the following week, now appears to be a dry time. However, pressure patterns will remain lower than average with below average temperatures continuing.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today leading to a chance of showers from Fresno County north by late afternoon. Periods of showers tonight through Sunday night with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening. A diminishing chance of showers Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon and night. a chance of showers Tuesday into Wednesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/50/66/45/68 | Reedley 73/51/67/46/68 | Dinuba 72/49/67/45/67 | |
| Porterville 74/49/67/47/69 | Lindsay 74/49/66/46/68 | Delano 74/51/67/48/69 | |
| Bakersfield 75/55/67/50/68 | Taft 75/56/69/52/69 | Arvin 76/53/68/50/67 | |
| Lamont 75/53/69/50/67 | Pixley 74/50/67/46/68 | Tulare 72/49/65/46/68 | |
| Woodlake 73/51/66/46/67 | Hanford 74/51/66/48/68 | Orosi 72/49/67/46/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Chance of showers 50/64 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 48/72 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 54/79 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 55/83 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 54/84 |
Two Week Outlook: May 25 through May 31: This model predicts above average precipitation for much of the western U.S. with the main bulls eye at northern California. The risk of very late season will continue to be relatively high during this period with below average temperatures.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast today at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Later tonight through Sunday night, there will be periods of winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Monday will be variable to 15 MPH. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The chance of showers will begin to increase as far south as Fresno County by late afternoon, spreading southward during the night. we may see a few hours of steady rain along and ahead of the cold front later tonight and Sunday morning. Then, like the last storm, a cold pool of unstable air will move overhead Sunday for more showers and a fairly high risk of scattered thunderstorms which, of course, will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. This is a slow moving system so showers will continue possibly into Monday morning.
Rainfall amounts north of Kern County could easily exceed .50, especially towards the center and east side of the valley. When and where thunderstorms occur, totals could approach one-inch. Over the valley portion of Kern County, about .25 to .33 is possible. However, with the possibility of thunderstorms, locally more could be tallied up.
Dry weather will temporarily return Monday afternoon and night. the chance of showers will increase again Tuesday into Wednesday. The main dynamics with this storm will be a bit further north. Still, scattered showers and, yes, more thunderstorms will be possible. I want to keep a small chance of showers in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, though most of the action will likely be over the mountains by then with dry weather, finally, Friday and hopefully through all of next week.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/85%
Actual Humidity May 17, 2019: Delano, 98%/41% Porterville, 97%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.33, Parlier 1.49, Blackwell 1.61, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.60, Orange Cove 1.44, Porterville 1.50, Delano 1.48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 70, Blackwell 75, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 76, Delano 74
Record Temperatures: 103/42. Average Temperatures: 85/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 160 +59
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 68.2 +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 10.31 season. or -.64. Month to Date: .84 +.56
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.56, or +.35. Month to Date: .56 +.44
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:48 am Sunset: 8:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 51 / 0.06 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 68 / 52 / 0.30 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 49 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 44 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 70 / 50 / 0.19 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 50 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 50 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 68 / 49 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 66 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 51 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 16.75 124 9.09 67 13.49 14.06
MODESTO T 12.76 102 8.00 64 12.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 12.43 104 6.91 58 11.91 12.50
MADERA 0.00 10.45 91 7.22 63 11.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 10.31 94 6.73 61 10.95 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 8.02 84 4.70 49 9.60 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.56 106 3.93 63 6.21 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.37 190 1.25 28 4.40 5.18
SALINAS T 12.86 104 7.13 57 12.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.32 116 9.62 78 12.36 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.05 110 6.01 44 13.64 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/May 17