May 19, 2019
Summary: Today will turn out to be a rather historic weather day as it will definitely be the coldest ever recorded for this date and it’s already the wettest. A strong cold front moved through the valley overnight with widespread precipitation. Almost all locations, with the exception of a few in Kern County, recording more than .50. we have a long way to go before this system winds down as the center of circulation is now just to the northwest of the Bay Area. A fairly wide line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving into the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys with locally heavy rain. It will move through the central and eventually the south valley later today. Behind this band is a pool of unusually cold air for the time of year. Already, snow is falling down to 5,500 feet along the Sierra Nevada. The snow line will drop even more as the day progresses.
As conditions destabilize this afternoon courtesy of intense daytime heating, and with the low directly overhead, thunderstorms are almost a given. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few cells push severe limits. Showers will continue until about midnight tonight then taper off with a dry day finally coming up Monday. However, the western states will remain under a broad trough of low pressure. In fact, by Tuesday an elongated low will stretch from Kansas on the east to northern California on the west with a renewed threat of showers and the possibility of more thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. For now, it appears the precipitation pattern for Tuesday will be more scattered, so it does not appear to be as wet as the current historic system.
This is really an incredibly unusual pattern for this time of year and, believe it or not, models show this persistent trough remaining over the west through the end of the month. A couple of models show a compact low forming and sliding along the central coast Friday and Saturday. In theory, this would provide another round of showers and thunderstorms. Yet another low shows up for Sunday and Monday of next week.
With the exception of Thursday, just about any day could see measurable precipitation recorded on the valley floor with the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: Periods of showers today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will be likely from the late morning to the evening hours. A few thunderstorms could be quite strong. Partly cloudy Monday and Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday leading to scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms from late Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. A slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night. variable cloudiness Friday through Sunday with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/44/68/46/66 | Reedley 66/45/68/48/65 | Dinuba 65/44/67/45/65 | |
| Porterville 66/45/68/48/66 | Lindsay 67/43/69/46/65 | Delano 65/47/69/48/66 | |
| Bakersfield 68/49/68/51/68 | Taft 68/50/68/52/68 | Arvin 69/47/68/51/65 | |
| Lamont 67/48/69/48/66 | Pixley 66/45/68/46/65 | Tulare 65/44/68/46/65 | |
| Woodlake 66/45/69/46/65 | Hanford 67/46/68/49/66 | Orosi 65/44/67/46/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Am showers possible 48/68 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 52/75 |
Friday
Small chance of showers 54/77 |
Saturday
Small chance of showers 54/78 |
Sunday
Small chance of showers 49/71 |
Two Week Outlook: May 26 through June 1: This model predicts above average precipitation for much of the western U.S. with the main bulls eye at northern California. The risk of very late season will continue to be relatively high during this period with below average temperatures.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times through tonight with local gusts to 25 MPH in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms. Winds Monday and Monday night will be generally at or less than 15 MPH. Winds late Monday night through Wednesday will periodically be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The following are storm totals as of 6:00am. Madera .24, Fresno .64, Firebaugh.25, Clovis .77, Del Rey .50, Visalia .52, Hanford .52, Lemoore .64, Portervile .54, Delano .62, Bakersfield .62, Lamont .48, Mettler .38, Taft .31, Buttonwillow .38.
These totals are quite remarkable for this time of year. Last night alone, Bakersfield picked up three times the amount of rain usually received for the entire month. This storm is by no means coming to a close as the cold upper low currently northwest of San Francisco will move overhead this afternoon.
The brief lull we are currently in will give way to more showers and a high likelihood of thunderstorms from late morning through the evening hours. A few thunderstorms could be quite strong. Showers will begin to taper off after midnight tonight with dry weather temporarily returning Monday. Most locations have already recorded more than .50 and especially where thunderstorms occur, another .50 or more could fall by the time this event is over.
The next chance of rain will increase Tuesday. The rainfall pattern with this one will be more scattered, so for now it does not appear to be as impressive. However, thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, so locally heavy amounts cannot be ruled out. Showers will taper off Wednesday morning with another dry slot Wednesday night through Thursday. From Friday through Monday, we’ll keep a minimal chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast as more bands of energy are projected to rotate through this big band of low pressure. On paper anyway, dry weather shows up beginning a week from Tuesday as more of a typical summer configuration sets up.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/90%
Actual Humidity May 17, 2019: Delano, 99%/45% Porterville, 96%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.20, Parlier 1.37, Blackwell 1.49, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.45, Orange Cove 1.32, Porterville 1.39, Delano 1.38. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 70, Blackwell 75, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 75, Delano 73
Record Temperatures: 103/42. Average Temperatures: 85/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 160 +54
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 67.7 +0.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 10.43 season. or -.53. Month to Date: 1.06 +.77
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.08, or +.86. Month to Date: 1.08 +.95
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:48 am Sunset: 8:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 48 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 68 / 51 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 47 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 44 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / M / M / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 47 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 70 / 64 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 71 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.18 16.93 125 9.09 67 13.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 12.77 102 8.00 64 12.50 13.11
MERCED 0.13 12.56 105 6.91 58 11.93 12.50
MADERA 0.02 10.47 91 7.22 63 11.46 12.02
FRESNO T 10.31 94 6.73 61 10.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 8.06 84 4.70 49 9.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 6.56 105 3.93 63 6.22 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.37 190 1.25 28 4.41 5.18
SALINAS 0.07 12.93 104 7.13 57 12.43 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.04 14.36 116 9.62 78 12.37 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 15.07 110 6.01 44 13.65 13.95
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Next report: Monday morning/May 20