May 21, 2019
Summary: The respite from the unusual weather pattern was very short lived yesterday. Already this morning, light showers are showing up on radar, mainly from Fresno County north. A cold upper level low is now driving through southern Oregon into northern California and will drive a cold front through the valley this morning. This system is moisture deficient as compared to the past two storms, which dumped copious amounts of precipitation over central California. Even so, once the daytime heating process gets underway, scattered showers and, yes, isolated thunderstorms will break out. My feel is most locations will record less than .10 with this event, however where locally heavy showers or thunderstorms occur, well over .25 to .33 with small hail cannot be ruled out. Winter weather will also continue over the mountain areas of central California with snow down to 5,000 to 6,000 feet.
By Wednesday, the low will have dropped into southern California, allowing showers to continue, though, over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. Interestingly, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will actually force the southern California low to the west, possibly renewing the chance of showers Thursday into Friday. I believe most of the action will be over the mountain areas, but a small chance of scattered showers is possible.
If this weren’t enough, a cold upper level low will develop over the Pacific Northwest Friday then will drop southward possibly right along the California coast Friday and Saturday. This will bring another chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend, possibly lasting into Monday morning.
Finally, once we get towards Tuesday of next week, a dry pattern will return. However, it still does not appear we will return to a ridge pattern which would result in more summer type temperatures, but rather a weak trough which would at least allow temperatures to try to struggle up to near seasonal values by the middle of next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Wednesday with scattered showers through tonight. Possibly a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Wednesday morning, mainly in Kern County. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and night. variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday with a small chance of showers, mainly near the mountains. Variable cloudiness will continue Saturday through Sunday with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers Sunday night through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/48/68/50/72 | Reedley 66/47/67/50/72 | Dinuba 64/46/67/49/71 | |
| Porterville 65/47/68/51/73 | Lindsay 66/46/67/49/73 | Delano 66/48/68/51/74 | |
| Bakersfield 65/50/65/52/74 | Taft 66/51/66/53/74 | Arvin 65/49/66/52/75 | |
| Lamont 65/49/66/52/75 | Pixley 65/48/68/50/73 | Tulare 64/47/68/49/72 | |
| Woodlake 65/47/67/50/72 | Hanford 65/47/68/50/72 | Orosi 64/46/68/49/72 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Slight chance of showers 53/77 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 54/75 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 52/71 |
Monday
AM showers possible 50/76 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/82 |
Two Week Outlook: May 27 through June 2: This model does not give up on a trough of low pressure covering most of the west during this period. The risk for showers will be higher than average for this late in the season with a continuation of at least marginally below average temperatures.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through this evening with local gusts to near 25 MPH, mainly near showers. Winds tonight through Wednesday will continue to be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be generally variable at 10 to 15 MPH.
Rain: Unlike the past couple of storms, this system will generally drop light amounts of precipitation in a scattered manner. However, there may very well be isolated exceptions. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. When and if these storms occur, more than .33 is possible along with small hail. The greatest risk of thunderstorms will be near the center and the eastern side of the valley, mainly north of Kern County. This will be a slow moving system, so scattered showers will continue tonight and possibly into Wednesday morning, especially in Kern County. Another temporary lull will occur Wednesday afternoon and night.
I would not rule out widely scattered showers mainly near the base of the Sierra Nevada and in Kern County Thursday through Friday. The weekend also poses the threat of scattered showers as a new low drops southward from Oregon into California. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out both on Saturday and Sunday afternoons with the chance of showers possibly lasting into Monday morning. With some luck, dry weather will return Tuesday, or about a week from today, continuing thereafter.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/90%
Actual Humidity May 20, 2019: Delano, 100%/46% Porterville, 98%/44%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .96, Parlier 1.01, Blackwell 1.26, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.25, Orange Cove .95, Porterville 1.19, Delano 1.19. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 68, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 72, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 104/42. Average Temperatures: 86/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 160 +42
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.9 -0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.11 season. or +.13. Month to Date: 1.64 +1.33
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.41, or +1.18. Month to Date: 1.41 +1.27
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:46 am Sunset: 8:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:17
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 47 / 0.09 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 68 / 49 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 48 / 0.11 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / 0.10 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 69 / 52 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 69 / 48 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 68 / 47 / 0.19 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 67 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 54 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.10 134 9.09 67 13.53 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.80 102 8.00 64 12.54 13.11
MERCED 0.00 12.94 108 6.91 58 11.96 12.50
MADERA 0.00 10.91 95 7.22 63 11.48 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.11 101 6.73 61 10.98 11.50
HANFORD T 8.69 90 4.70 49 9.63 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.41 119 3.93 63 6.23 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.37 189 1.40 32 4.42 5.18
SALINAS T 13.64 110 7.13 57 12.45 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.80 120 9.62 78 12.38 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.55 114 6.01 44 13.66 13.95
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Next report: Tuesday afternoon/May 21